Ukraine in Kursk. Kremlin in Donetsk. Who will blink first?

The answer lies with neither Ukraine nor the Kremlin.

It has been almost two weeks since Ukraine invaded Russia, two and a half years after Russia invaded Ukraine. The story of August 2024 remains the same: Ukraine is still advancing into the Russian territory of Kursk, while Kremlin forces continue to advance in the Ukrainian territory of Donetsk.

Both sides have certain strengths and weaknesses.

The Kremlin lacks sufficient strategic reserves to reinforce Kursk without affecting force density along the pre-Kursk frontline. Putin has instructed his generals to find a way to stop Ukraine in Kursk without compromising Russia’s ability to advance towards the administrative border of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.

Consequently, Russia has withdrawn troops from the extremely important and highly strategic Kaliningrad, prompting Lithuania’s defense minister to say that Russia is demilitarizing Kaliningrad. They are also pulling troops from certain sections of southern Ukraine where the fighting is not intense.

Russia still retains an edge in artillery, firing nearly 10,000 shells daily. While many of these might be ineffective, North Korea continues to send trainloads of artillery shells to Russia. The Black Sea fleet has been contained, but the Russian air force and their glide bombs remain a significant overhead threat on the frontlines.

Ukraine has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they are tactically superior to Kremlin forces and fully capable of executing maneuver warfare. Following the mobilization bill passed in April 2024, Ukraine’s manpower issues are gradually being resolved. They continue to add more brigades and urge the Western world to equip them quickly.

However, their air defense remains patchy, with overall interception rates dropping below 50%. They were supposed to have ten long-range systems by now, but only six are in position. If this is the case for a promise made in May–June, it’s likely that the rest of the promises won’t fare much better.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, after making the mistake of appearing hands-on to give the impression that he is in charge and that the situation in Kursk would be brought under control, has quickly reverted to his old strategy: staying in the shadows, acting as if nothing is a big deal, and setting up scapegoats to take the fall if needed.

The Kremlin has received the memo: Kursk is not a big deal. Manage the information, keep up the propaganda, and continue advancing in Donetsk. The current plan is to manage Kursk without disrupting operations in Donetsk.

The Russian armed forces are clearly struggling to find men to fight. They have no reserves, yet the daily casualty rate has remained above 1,000 for more than three months. Managing Kursk while also advancing in Donetsk will consume a significant number of troops at an extremely fast pace.

Of all people, Putin is fully aware of the challenges his military recruiters are facing. At the end of June, he increased the one-time payment for new recruits and raised their annual salary. In the same week, his trusted central bank head issued a stark warning that drawing on savings would not help and would instead inflict severe damage on the inflation-ridden economy.

A full mobilization would be the best course of action, but it seems the elites in Putin’s circle are uncomfortable with the idea, fearing an intense backlash from society. As a result, they will stick to silent mobilization. But it isn’t going to bring in enough resources.

Is Putin making a grave mistake? It might seem that way, doesn’t it.

Actually, no…….. There is one way Putin can do this.

Let me rephrase that.

There is only one way Putin can achieve this.

He is betting that the United States will find a way to slow down the weapons supply to Ukraine, impede their momentum, and force Ukraine onto the back foot by throttling that supply. Without weapons, Ukraine cannot hold out for long in Kursk or Donetsk. The lines will break, as they did in Avdiivka after the United States stopped sending aid for six months.

His calculus isn’t wrong.

When Congress approved the $60.5 billion Ukraine aid package, they asked the Biden administration to provide a clear plan on how it intends to achieve victory against Russia. That deadline has passed, and so far, the Biden administration has not sent that letter.

Frustration is mounting on Capitol Hill as the Biden administration has failed to meet a deadline to provide Congress with a detailed written report of its strategy for the war in Ukraine, with at least one lawmaker seeking to suspend aid to Kyiv altogether until the document is provided.

“The Biden-Harris administration’s ‘support’ for Ukraine has given the embattled nation just enough to survive but not enough to win,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said in a statement provided to Foreign Policy.

“Time and time again, weapons viewed by the administration as too provocative were later provided. Without a clear strategy for victory in Ukraine, the administration is likely to continue down the same path, prolonging [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war of aggression and signaling U.S. weakness to our other adversaries, including communist China.”

The Associated Press reported yesterday that the Biden administration is set to release a Ukraine aid package worth $125 million. This will bring the total value of aid promised in August to $250 million. The administration has $15.9 billion left to assist Ukraine.

At this rate, the United States can continue sending aid to Ukraine for another five years. Perfect.

Putin can win in Kursk and he can also win in Donetsk, but not without the Biden administration playing its part.

We cannot keep blaming the national security team that President Biden has installed. They are still in their positions because he wants them there. He could have asked them to leave after the stellar job they did in Afghanistan, but he chose to keep them. He should have fired them after his National Security Advisor wrote, one week before the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel, that the Middle East was quieter than it had been in two decades.

Even now, he has the choice to replace them and find better hands. By choosing to keep them, he must shoulder the responsibility for the output they produce.

Ukraine will be in deep trouble if the Biden administration decides to go down this dark road.

I have written time and again not to underestimate American voters. They have been disappointed with President Biden on many levels, which was one of the main reasons they refused to fund his campaign.

Vice President Kamala Harris activated a flood of Democratic donors who had been on the sidelines, new data shows: More people donated to her campaign in its first 10 days than in the entire 15 months of President Joe Biden’s.

I don’t think it was an accident that so many people rushed to support Kamala Harris. Count me among those who are deeply disappointed and desperately seeking change.

I hope that rational voices from both sides of the aisle — Republicans who are not aligned with MAGA and Democrats who recognize the importance of national security — will unite to hold the Biden administration accountable. They have come together before and I hope they will be able to do it again. Without their effort, the Ukraine aid bill would have never cleared the congress.

I remain hopeful.

I hope Republican Congressman Michael McCaul and Democratic Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro, who helped shepherd the Ukraine aid bill through Congress in April, will once again find a way to steer the United States in the right direction.

In my next article, I will explain how Ukraine can win the war in Kursk, assuming the United States continues to provide robust support.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 253 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.