Ukraine Launches Its Most Fierce Attack on Crimea
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Deep Trouble.
“What’s wrong with them?” Those four words kept ringing in my ears as soon as reports of Ukraine’s fiercest attack on Crimea since the start of the war came through.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully struck the amphibious landing ships Yamal and Azov, a communications center, and a number of the Black Sea Fleet’s infrastructure sites,” the Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement on Telegram.
Using Britain’s long-range Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine hit two large landing ships, Yamal and Azov, blew up a command post, and damaged infrastructure facilities in Sevastopol, Crimea. Additionally, three SU-27 aircraft were damaged at Belbek airfield, which is located right next to Sevastopol.
Complete and utter failure of the Russian air-defense umbrella in Crimea. If you are not able to protect the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and the main airfield in the region, what purpose do air-defense systems serve?
To some extent, I can understand their air-defense predicament. This vulnerability was created by Ukraine. The regular attacks on vital Russian infrastructure in Crimea over the last six months have left the Russian forces in Crimea almost blind. They have no idea where the gaps are or when they will be exploited. Every time they try to fix it, Ukraine knocks them out.
The attack on the airfield and the two ships was as important as the attack on the command post and military infrastructure. The latter is what makes the former possible.
So, I can understand the hits Russians took on the airfield and command posts.
But can anyone explain why on earth the Russians allowed two large landing ships to be exposed? What were they doing? When Ukraine busted the Minsk Submarine and Rostov-on-Don landing ship at the Sevastopol naval base in September, it became clear that this area is not safe for naval ships. Docked or not, it does not matter. Both the eastern and western sea beds of Crimea stand exposed.
If Ukraine spots the ships, they are going to strike. I believe the presence of both landing ships in the region prompted Ukraine to launch a massive attack. Sending in a large volley of missiles at different targets inside a close circle increases the pressure on the air-defense systems. If one target is protected, there is always the chance to take out the other one.
Well, whatever…. The Russians took the risk to expose their landing ships and they paid a massive price.
Want to know how stupid this decision is? On February 14th, I wrote that Ukraine would hunt down these two ships. Russians managed to lose them both on the same day.
According to public reports, there were four amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea at the start of the invasion. Two have been lost. Yamal and Azov are the two remaining Ropucha-class landing ships left in the Black Sea fleet.
These attacks have severely crippled the ability of the Black Sea Fleet to transport goods and weapons. As the number of landing ships dwindles, the pressure on the remaining ships will increase. The Black Sea Fleet will have no choice but to increase the travel rate of these two landing ships, making them a nice little target to be taken down.
It was so obvious what Ukraine would do, and yet the Russians went ahead and presented themselves. Russia does not have a single Ropucha-class landing ship in working condition left in the Black Sea fleet. The good ones are gone. They do have a few ships that are in repair and not combat-ready.
In mid-February, Defense UA published the number of active and non-active landing ships in the Black Sea.
“But not all of them are currently in combat-capable condition. In particular, as of December 20, 2023, two Project 775 landing ships were waiting for repair in occupied Sevastopol”.
The Russian authorities will try to swiftly restore the ships, yet the task is daunting. Ship repairs are both time-consuming and financially burdensome, with some landing ships commanding costs exceeding $70 million. This predicament is particularly dire amidst the backdrop of ongoing conflict.
The Russians need these transport ships to move goods from Russia to Crimea; otherwise, they will become extremely dependent on the Kerch bridge, creating another layer of vulnerability.
Why these attacks are important?
If and when Crimea becomes vulnerable for military purposes, the Russian military will lose its biggest strength on the Southern frontline. The Russians have massed themselves at the frontline, making a breakthrough at the line of control very difficult to achieve.
Russians took five months and suffered colossal human and material losses to capture Avdiivka. Even then, it wasn’t enough to achieve a breakthrough. It only happened when Ukraine suffered a critical shortage of ammunition. Some Ukrainian units in the sector were operating at 30% to 40% capacity.
In principle, this is the same effect Ukraine is trying to achieve by attacking Crimea. When Russia encounters difficulties in storing and transporting military goods from Crimea to the Southern frontline, they will be forced to use longer, more exposed land routes for supply. At that stage, Ukraine will target vulnerable points, such as bridges or narrow roads, to cut off those supply routes. They will continue to hinder the movement of goods.
A few days of ammunition shortage will produce devastating changes at the frontline. But that position can only be achieved by knocking out Russia’s ability to use Crimea as a military warehouse. Destroying the Black Sea fleet’s ability to transport goods is one part of the puzzle; the other part is keeping the air-defense umbrella in Crimea in a weakened state.
Ukraine is shaping the battlefield to introduce the F16s. The only thing stopping them from doing it right away is the depleted state of their air-defense missile stockpile. If Ukraine brings in the F16s now, they will experience the same problem the Russians faced at Belbek airfield last night.
When there isn’t sufficient air-defense coverage, enemy missiles will find the airfields and destroy vital assets. Ukraine is better off waiting. They need to replenish their air-defense stockpile. This means there is going to be a time gap. Ukraine can use that time gap to move Crimea from the pre-heat to full heat.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
