Ukraine masters the art of drone-follow up attacks
Their Strategy continues to evolve
The first time I observed Ukraine employ the attack-wait-watch-attack strategy against a Russian military asset was in mid-October 2024. They targeted an oil depot in the Rostov region with drones, watching as storage tanks erupted into flames one by one for five days before launching another drone strike on the same site to maximize destruction.
Subsequent strikes have since gained significant momentum.
Last week, on January 15th and 16th, Ukraine attacked Rosneft’s Lisinkya oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast. Positioned close to the frontline and near Kursk Oblast — the epicenter of the conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces — this refinery, along with its associated storage units, holds substantial strategic importance. Its production capacity, crucially, is not earmarked for export but is directly fueling the war effort.
The refinery was still ablaze when Ukraine launched another attack on the site yesterday. This was not the only target; Ukrainian drones also struck the Smolensk Aviation Plant last night, a facility that constructs and maintains Russia’s Su-25 fighter jets.
Since January 6th, Ukraine has significantly accelerated the frequency of drone and missile attacks on Russian military assets. This marks a shift from March 2024, when the focus was primarily on Russian refineries. This year, the targets encompass a broader spectrum of military assets, including refineries, oil storage depots, ammunition depots, weapons manufacturing units, and other industries crucial for sustaining the war effort.
Russia is a war time economy. More than the majority of the assets are going to be involved in the war. However, Ukraine is meticulously selecting its targets to erode wartime production and undermine Russia’s capability to sustain the conflict. Ukraine is cherry picking the sites.
These efforts are critical as financial strain remains the Kremlin’s greatest challenge. Ukraine must impose maximum pressure on the Russian economy ahead of a potential conversation between Trump and Putin. Although a meeting is uncertain — likely only a phone call — Ukraine cannot afford to overlook this. The best strategy is to weaken Putin as much as possible before that call, utilizing all available diplomatic leverage to delay it, while simultaneously inflicting severe damage on Russian war capabilities.
I believe this is precisely what they are doing, suggesting that follow-up drone attacks will persist. It’s essential for Ukraine to continue these strikes and normalize them as a regular aspect of the war. The American media often shrugs off Kremlin attacks on Ukrainian cities with missiles, showing little outrage even when glide bombs devastated Kharkiv’s city center last year, killing many in broad daylight. It’s become routine, almost trivial, and that’s the nonchalance Ukraine seeks from the American media regarding its deeper strikes into Russia — a state seemingly within reach.
This shift would significantly alleviate pressure on the Trump administration to intervene against these Ukrainian deep strike operations.
President Zelensky is bracing his nation for the worst-case scenario — a scenario nobody desires. We’re on the brink of dismantling an imperial dream, yet we’re discussing a ceasefire that could let Putin off the hook. But ignoring this potential outcome would be negligent.
Mind you, I am not in favor of any of this. But this is indeed the worst-case scenario for Ukraine: to keep them out of NATO and force them to cede Ukrainian territory to end the invasion.
Getting ready to swallow this bitter pill is what has allowed Zelensky to tell Trump that he is ready for a deal. Now, Trump has referred to this position at least twice in the last week. On the last occasion, he added that he is not sure if Putin wants to make a deal.
Had Zelensky refused to prepare for the worst-case scenario, he would never have been able to operate in the best-case scenario, which is the United States under Trump trying to push Putin to disclose his terms. The more you make it look like it is Putin who is stalling and being unreasonable, the easier it is for the entire world. There will always be politics, and there is no way around it.
And if Putin does come to the table, perhaps bluffing, asking for a temporary pause, keeping Ukraine out of NATO, lifting sanctions, and preparing his successor for another assault on Ukraine?
This scenario is entirely possible, and the Zelensky administration is preparing by requesting a 200,000-strong peacekeeping force, alongside a model akin to South Korea’s, to mitigate the risks of a premature peace agreement.
Writing this was nerve-wracking, and I can only imagine how it resonates with you. As I always say, prepare for the worst but tirelessly strive for the best. Take it one day, one month, one quarter at a time. Do this for two quarters, saftey will be well within striking distance.
Thanks for reading. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 351 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.
