Ukraine on the Verge of Doubling Its Kursk Control
Two Bridges on the Reka Seym River Destroyed
The image above is the one I published three days ago. Ukraine has advanced further north of the blue box labeled ‘Ukraine has reached here.’ They encountered Russian forces in the town of Korenevo and blocked them from moving south.
Of the three bridges across the Reka Seym River, the one next to the Russian town of Glushkovo is the most important. It is large enough to facilitate heavy troop movements. Ukraine first tried to take the bridge down with a HIMARS strike. You can see the four spots, almost like a cluster, where the attack left holes in the bridge. It damaged the bridge, but it was still usable.
Not satisfied with the results, Ukraine asked its air force to get the job done. They dropped a glide bomb on the bridge, completely destroying it.
Anticipating that Ukraine would destroy the bridge, the Russians hurriedly built a pontoon bridge to maintain their connection to Glushkovo. That was also taken down.
Ukraine has also struck the Zvannoe Bridge. There is only one bridge left for the Russians to cross over to Kursk’s southern district. They are probably going to leave it for now, as it remains the only exit route for Russians living south of the Seym River to flee. They can’t exit through the other side as that is where the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces is intense.
For now, Ukrainian forces seem content with impeding the Russian army from moving its reinforcements to the southern district and all the land south of the Seym River. This will allow them to maintain control of the area while also giving people enough time to leave if they choose to do so.
There is nothing the Russians can do to stop this area from slowly falling into the hands of Ukrainian forces. It is gone now. Ukraine will also have no need to increase its troop presence in this section.
Take a look at what the Russians did in Southern Ukraine in early 2023. They barely had four or five brigades defending the area south of the Dnipro River. Most of the troops stationed in this section were weak and not the best units in Russia’s possession. They still do not have any of their elite units operating in this section because the Russians destroyed all the bridges when they withdrew from the north of the Dnipro River.
Ukraine has crossed the river and has some troop presence on the Russian-occupied side of the Dnipro River. However, without bridges, Ukraine cannot cross the river en masse and march through Russian-occupied territory.
Supplying a large number of forces operating on the other side of the river is an extremely difficult task. You can build pontoon bridges to cross over, but as soon as you build one, missiles will come flying, the bridge will be destroyed, and all the troops you sent to the other side will be stranded and surrounded by enemy forces.
Russia will now face the same type of difficulty in Kursk. Once the bridges are gone, they will have to let this section go. There is nothing they can do about it. The only way to get it back is by directly confronting the Ukrainian forces in their current position.
Whenever Ukraine knocks down that last bridge and takes full control of the land south of the Reka Seym River, they will be doubling their footprint in Kursk Oblast. From a military operational standpoint, this won’t require many resources for Ukraine. They will conduct a clearing operation to ensure no Russian troops remain on this side of the river and ensure that any temporary bridge Russia builds is promptly destroyed.
However, the political impact of taking hold of nearly 2,000 square kilometers of Russian territory will be huge. It will deal a terrible blow to Putin’s standing. A quarter of Kursk Oblast will be under Ukraine’s control. Moreover, the comparison between Russia and Ukraine will become more intense.
Since the start of the year, Russia has taken closer to 1,000 square kilometers. That is the territory they took over in seven months. In a matter of weeks, Ukraine has taken control of twice that land. The next time anyone talks about initiative, they will have to acknowledge that it is with Ukraine.
This changes the dynamics of the war significantly. You can’t separate the political from the war or economics; it is always intertwined in some way.
Now, this brings me to the next question:
Many pundits still argue that Ukraine is making a mistake by diverting most of its resources towards Kursk and not using them to stop the Russian advance in Donbas. Yes, they have.
They have prioritized snatching the initiative from Russia, which may or may not come at the cost of land in Donbas. When you are a commander and have the opportunity to go on the attack and take control of the initiative, you have to take it. You are not going to win by defending all the time. If you want to win, you have to take the attack to the enemy.
That is what Commander Syrski has done.
So, the Western world should quit complaining and look at options to help Ukraine build on its success. That is the only way forward.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 250 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
