Ukraine on the verge of driving the Russians out of Vovchansk
Kremlin’s struggle is getting real
The Vovchansk Aggregate Plant, situated next to the Vovcha River in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, is a critically important location. It became a focal point of intense fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kharkiv sector.
The Vovchansk Aggregate Plant is composed of multiple reinforced buildings that any defender could utilize as fortified defensive positions. Additionally, with the river running along its southern edge, mounting a direct counterattack on the plant becomes even more challenging for opposing forces.
For months, Ukraine tried and failed to seize control of the plant. At some point, they realized that a direct assault would not yield the desired results, prompting a shift in strategy. Instead, they decided to maneuver around the plant. The plan worked. By mid-July, Ukrainian forces had secured control of the roads surrounding the plant, effectively isolating the Russian troops stationed inside.
The Russians, however, refused to surrender. They continued supplying their trapped troops via drones while attempting to establish a ground connection to the plant. After some time and multiple failed attempts, they finally gave up. Ukraine successfully took control of both the aggregate plant and the surrounding streets.
From here, Ukrainian forces will be able to begin clearing Russian troops from Vovchansk. Since the plant is located on the opposite side of the river, it will allow Ukrainian forces to move into the town with relative safety. The Russians have lost an extremely valuable defensive position, and unless they attempt to retake the plant, it is only a matter of time before Ukraine fully expels Russian armed forces from Vovchansk.
This situation has piqued my curiosity about Vovchansk. The Russians do not have sufficient troop strength to hold the area without the plant. They need more troops and must launch a counterattack to regain control of it.
How the Kremlin responds to this rapidly developing situation in Vovchansk will reveal a lot about their reserve strength and ammunition situation. The Russians have deployed an additional elite brigade to the Kursk front, while also intensifying attacks near Vuhledar in southern Ukraine and near Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast. In recent days, Russian casualty rates have surpassed 1,200 and are approaching 1,500.
Their concern over reserve numbers is evident, as they have even reassigned the crew of their sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, turning them into infantry. These troops now form a frigate battalion in the 1st Guards Tank Army.
To complicate matters further, the daily arrival of weapons shipments from ammunition storage depots in Toropets and Tikhoretsk has likely stalled, forcing commanders to rely on existing supplies until the logistics network is reorganized.
There appears to be very little room for maneuver. I don’t believe Russian forces have the capacity to maintain their current operational tempo while effectively responding to the growing threat to their positions in Vovchansk.
The Russians need more troops in Vovchansk, and they will need additional ammunition. If Ukraine continues to apply pressure, which I hope they do, the Russian army will struggle to hold its lines in the sector.
From Ukraine’s perspective, it makes no difference what the Russian army does in Vovchansk from this point forward. If Russia sends reinforcements, Ukraine has a solid defensive position in the form of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant to hold and fight from, allowing them to continue degrading Russian combat power.
If the Russian army chooses not to pull troops from other sectors to reinforce the Vovchansk region, Ukraine can liberate the territory and drive Putin’s forces out of the town.
Losing Vovchansk would be a significant embarrassment for Putin, especially in the aftermath of setbacks like those in Kursk. If it happens, it will reinforce the growing sentiment that Russia is losing momentum in the conflict.
Nearly half of Russians back the withdrawal of their troops from Ukraine without achieving the goals of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, according to a new poll.
Independent Russian pollster Chronicles said that Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region on August 6 had dented morale among the population about the war started by Moscow more than two-and-a-half years ago.
“The longer the war drags on, the less people have faith that it will end in a beneficial way for them and for Russia,” Aleksei Miniailo, a Russian opposition politician and co-founder of Chronicles told Newsweek.
What will Ukraine do?
I’m not sure.
Earlier today, I assessed that Ukraine should prioritize building up its reserves rather than committing too many forces to the front. This seems like the only way for them to ultimately win the war. Capturing Vovchansk would be a significant propaganda victory and would further damage Putin’s image inside Russia.
I’m a bit torn. I can see the advantages of sending more Ukrainian troops to Vovchansk, but I also understand why it might be unnecessary in the grander scheme of things. I don’t envy Commander Syrski’s position right now.
Still, it’s good news, and that’s worth something!
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