Ukraine Rains Drones on A50 Repair Facility
Ukrainian Drone swarms are getting stronger and reaching deeper
Yesterday, more than 40 Ukrainian drones rained down on the Beriev Aviation Scientific and Technical facility at Taganrog, Russia, which is used to service and repair Russia’s early warning aircraft.
This facility is extremely important for the Russian air force. It is where routine maintenance is carried out on A-50 Mainstay Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft (AEW&C), the A-100 DRLV aircraft, as well as the Tu-95 and Tu-142 strategic bombers.
Ukraine wants to keep the A50s Grounded
After the twin setbacks Russia suffered with the A50 aircraft this year, losing one aircraft in January and another in February, the Russian air force is struggling to participate in theater-wide offensive actions conducted by Russian ground troops.
The A50 aircraft are not easy to replace. It takes years to build one and costs a mind-boggling $350 million each. Russia only has six units left. That is not a great position to be in when aiming to sustain 24/7 operations.
NATO’s Boeing E-3A Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) aircraft “can fly at a maximum range of 9,250 kilometers or for about eight and a half hours”. The crew needs rest anyway. One cannot expect these aircraft to operate 24/7/365. Russia requires multiple aircraft, and they must be rotated.
Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, said that there “are only six A-50 aircraft left in Russia, and if another one is lost, the Russian military will be unable to operate them continuously”.
That sounds like a very reasonable conclusion.
But Russia badly needs these A50s to scan the skies because their ground-based radar and communications systems in Crimea and occupied Ukrainian territory have been severely damaged by Ukraine’s attacks since June last year. They are so blind that there are instances where Ukraine’s long-range Storm Shadow missiles have whizzed past Russia’s S-400 air defense systems.
That means the Russian pilots cannot depend on their ground-based communication systems, increasing their reliance on the A50s to keep an eye on Ukrainian forces and relay the information back to them. The Russian air force has scaled back its activities significantly since the loss of the second A50 in the last week of February.
But that is not a sustainable position is it?
What are their choices?
Russia did exactly what the U.K ministry of defense said they will do. On March 2nd, in its daily update, the United Kingdom said:
- A week on from the loss of a second A-50U MAINSTAY Airborne early warning and control aircraft, Russia has highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations.
- This is likely to continue whilst internal investigations take place surrounding the failure to protect another high value enabler, and how to mitigate the threat Ukrainian air defence continues to pose.
- The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews.
- This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine.
- It is likely that Russia will have to explore options to bridge this gap, including repurposing aircraft and accepting greater risk to provide the effective air support its ground forces require, but are likely not receiving.
- This is a prolonged issue that has almost certainly been exacerbated by the removal of A-50s supporting operations. Airframe and crew fatigue are almost certain to intensify once the A-50 does return to operations, with the fleet increasingly stretched.
- It is a realistic possibility Russia may attempt to bring previously mothballed A-50 airframes back into service to alleviate this.
Russia was trying to breathe life into one of its old A50 airframes at the Beriev Aviation Scientific and Technical facility in Taganrog.
Ukraine slammed 41 drones into this facility yesterday. A small number of drones broke through, causing heavy explosions. It is a little bit difficult to ascertain the damage, as this facility is located inside Russia, and the Russians will never tell us the truth.
Ukrainian military bloggers say that one A50 undergoing repair work in the facility was destroyed. It could be true, or it may not be true. I will update this story if and when the Institute for the Study of War releases its findings.
But there is something else that we need to take a closer look at: How did 41 drones cross more than 150 kilometers of Russian-held territory and slam into one of the most protected Russian military facilities in the region?
One Russian military blogger sounded the alarm over the increased sophistication of Ukrainian drones. According to him, “the UAV is much larger in size, sounded similar to Shahed, the warhead exceeds those previously recorded. Speed from 80 to 200-odd kilometers per hour. The flight altitude in a number of areas is 12–15 meters. Small arms are ineffective when trying to shoot it down”.
That is very interesting…
Ukrainian swarm attacks are increasing in size. We used to hear of ten or twelve drones sent in an attack. Now the number has quadrupled. The size of the warhead has also increased, and Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to strike deep inside Russia.
The Russians have too many resources to protect. Ukraine is probably now starting to build too many drones to keep them in storage.
A perfect match.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
