Ukraine Releases the Swarm
Ukrainian Drones Deliver Major Strike to Russia’s Morozovsk Airfield
Ukraine lit up Crimea last night with a massive volley of ATACMS missiles targeting Russian air-defense systems and other military assets in Sevastopol, Saky, Yevpatoria, and Simferopol.
Even the Russians acknowledge the effectiveness of the HIMARS(launchers) +ATACMS(long range missiles) combination. The Russians are still picking up the pieces, and it will be a while before a clear picture of the impact emerges. Preliminary reports suggest multiple S-400/S-300 launchers, radars, and several fighter jets were damaged.
However, I wasn’t very interested in digging deep into the ATACMS attack because my attention was riveted on the damage Ukrainian drones inflicted on Morozovsk airfield in Russia’s Rostov region. The airfield is located to the east of Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast.
This airfield is not in Crimea; it is located inside Russia, about 300 km from the frontline. It is the type of airfield that falls within the range of American-supplied ATACMS missiles, but the Western world will not grant Ukraine the permission to strike the airfield that hosts Su-34 fighter jets.
The base is home to the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment which had three squadrons of Sukhoi Su-34 (NATO: Fullback) as part of the 1st Guards Composite Aviation Division as of 2022.
This is the third time Ukraine has fired a swarm of drones to hit the Morozovsk airfield. On April 4th, they sent 53 drones to the airfield, destroying six fighter jets and damaging another eight. On June 14th, Ukraine fired 70 drones at the airfield. This time, they have launched an even bigger salvo. A group of more than 87 drones was ordered to target several assets inside Russia, with a bulk of them moving towards the Morozovsk airfield.
As usual, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that all drones were intercepted. And as usual, NASA fire maps indicate that it was the airfield that intercepted the drones. The entire airfield seems to have been lit up.
The Russian Air Force built shelters at the airbase to protect the jets from attacks. They knew Ukraine had drones capable of reaching this airfield after Ukraine’s successful drone attack in early April and mid-June. The odds were indeed reasonably high that there was some form of protection against the drones.
But everything came to naught last night. Ukraine mounted a successful drone attack. Large-scale drone attacks against Russian airfields are starting to yield results.
Great results.
According to reports from both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, the attack wasn’t a single strike where all the drones were sent in as one pack. It was more of a stream.
The attack started at around 02:56 and continued until 03:30.
If someone knows the answer to this question, please share your thoughts in the comments section. Russians also attack Ukraine with their long-range missiles around 03:00 hrs. The first massive salvo of missiles they fired immediately after the arrival of Patriots in Kyiv last year happened around 03:00 hrs. Is it because the sky is darkest during this period, or is there another reason behind it?
Ukraine is beginning to launch coordinated, multipronged assaults, the kind of complex operations only major powers were known to execute. There were multiple targets attacked in Crimea. The airfield in Morozovsk was targeted. Additionally, oil depots, ammo dumps, and other military assets in the Russian territories of Belgorod Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Rostov Oblast were targeted.
Technically, Ukraine fired north, east, and south around the same time. This is a significant upgrade from the lone wolf attacks Ukraine regularly mounted against Russian refineries in Krasnodar and other regions. Previously, Ukraine would fire one or two drones at the refineries, damage a critical part of the refinery, and then stay quiet for a while.
Of course, the attacks on the refineries did have a substantial impact on Russia’s ability to fund the war. However, I was still slightly concerned about the scale of Ukrainian drone production, especially the kind of drones that can travel 300 to 600 km.
That capability is becoming increasingly important for Ukraine because there is no clarity on when the Biden administration will decide to lift the restriction on Ukraine using long-range weapons to disable Russian airfields closer to their border.
Ukraine needs to push the Russian Air Force away from these airfields because it will significantly improve Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian missiles and reduce the pace of Russian glide bomb attacks on the frontline. In its May 13 assessment, the Institute for the Study of War explained why denying the Russian Air Force a safe space to operate near the Ukrainian border is important:
The more physical distance and therefore time that Ukraine has to track and intercept Russian missiles and drones, the more effective Ukrainian air defense will be.
Israeli and allied forces managed to successfully defeat Iran’s unprecedented Russian-style strike package against Israel on April 13 because Israeli and allied forces tracked and intercepted the projectiles as they flew extended distances over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and did not wait for them to enter Israeli airspace before intercepting them.
Ukraine would be able to more effectively defend itself from Russian strikes if Ukraine’s air defenders could similarly track and intercept Russian missiles and drones from the source as they approach Ukraine over an extended distance, as opposed to waiting until they cross into Ukrainian airspace.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash stated on May 10 that Ukrainian authorities in Kharkiv City have very little time to identify and neutralize air threats that originate from the nearby areas across the Russian border, reflecting the challenges posed to Ukraine’s air defenders by policies creating sanctuary for Russian combat forces in the Russian Federation
Ukraine has to ramp up production of mid-range drones, those that can fly 300 to 600 km. They need a lot of them, as Russia will certainly resort to protecting at least the airfields with ground troops. But that is still okay. Ukraine can keep them waiting and keep mixing things up. It will be difficult for Russia to protect all their mainland assets. The key is to keep them under pressure and continue taxing their manpower as well as air-defense assets.
Strech their resources. Open gaps. Find the targets.
ATACMS can easily get this job done, but who knows if Ukraine will ever get the required permissions to use them against Russian airfields. Now they have a homemade weapon capable of delivering the same results. That is one more dependency on the West crumbling away.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 250 stories free to the public in 2024, inlcuding this one.
