Ukraine Should Target May-June 2024
To Seize Control of the Theater
More than a month has passed since the Russian army seized control of Avdiivka. Sometimes, a single month can feel like an eternity on the battlefield. March proved to be one of those lengthy periods, as the current situation differs significantly from that of mid-February.
The Russians made the rookie battlefield mistake of chasing the enemy as they were withdrawing from Avdiivka. One of my favorite quotes by the Chinese historian Sun Tzu is, “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”
What does he mean by that?
When you push the enemy too hard, two things can happen: either they get completely crushed, or they find the determination to fight back. A desperate foe — what does he have to lose if he thinks there is nothing more to be lost? It is a dangerous provocation, highly likely to backfire. The decision by the Russian high command to continue pressing after the victory of Avdiivka pushed a few buttons for the Ukrainians.
Ukrainians responded with resolute defense. They did lose a few more villages that were at the edge of Avdiivka. But other than that, the Russians did not manage to take control of anything worth mentioning in the last one and a half months.
However, I don’t think it was because Ukraine suddenly received a boatload of ammunition and their combat power magically surged to hold off the Russians.
It was mostly due to confidence and clarity. Europe made it clear to Ukraine that ammunition is on the way. That was enough to stop rationing and release the ammunition in the right sectors. On the other hand, Russia had lost an unholy amount of equipment and manpower.
As a result, the Ukrainian lines held instead of breaking apart, as had happened to the Russians in the Kharkiv sector in 2022.
So, Ukraine is holding things up more due to their spirit and confidence than because of a material change in their weapons situation. They need to stay in the current mode of preservation and perseverance until May is crucial, after which they can time their surge to seize the advantage.
Let the Russians Hold the Initiative
I know this term gets thrown around a lot, and it can be annoying as hell. I kind of look at it as the side that has the ability to make the other side react being the one that holds the initiative on the battlefield. It also means that the side with the initiative has better combat power than the other side.
As of today, that side is Russia, mainly because they have more artillery shells in their possession and more manpower.
Ukraine is short on both.
If Ukraine tries to force the Russians into reacting, then they will have to commit resources towards it — resources they do not have. When you defend, you generally pay less cost. So, Ukraine must refrain from expending its resources, opting for a dour defense, all the while focusing on upscaling their warehouses and reserve strength.
Load Up on Manpower
They began tinkering with mobilization last year. The bill, which gained momentum late last year, is still circulating with the tag “draft.”
The draft law on mobilization, which is being amended by lawmakers, proposes to lower the enlistment age and introduce basic military training for adults, according to the Defense Ministry.
The ministry published a list on March 27 explaining the new key points included in the draft law.
In early February, Ukraine’s parliament passed the updated bill on mobilization in the first reading, a few weeks after its initial, contentious version was withdrawn.
Ukraine has to overcome this hurdle. They need reserve strength, and it has to surpass whatever they have had since the start of this war.
Keep Piling Up the Artillery Shells
One and a half million artillery shells have been ordered, and they will be delivered to Ukraine. I do not expect this to take more than eight weeks. It is more than likely that some European countries would have sent the ammo from their storage to Ukraine and refill them when ever the newly ordered shells arrive.
Ukraine has no need whatsoever to increase its artillery shell firing rate from 2,000 shells per day to 6,000 or 8,000 shells per day right away. Of course, a lot will depend on the dynamics of the field, what Russia does, and the objectives of the local commander. Additionally, it will depend on whether or not Ukraine chooses to rain fire on the immediate rear of the Russian frontline before launching the counter-attack.
A slow ramp would be ideal. Keep the Russians under stress, but escalate things in the second half of May or in June. Keep the Russians confused about when the counter-attack is going to happen, and then launch it.
Ukraine’s Shaping Operations for Russian Air Force and Navy Should Continue
Ukraine has already disrupted Russian transport logistics in Crimea to some extent. Reports indicate that Russians are avoiding the Kerch bridge to transport weapons due to repeated strikes on the bridge. Russia has lost almost all of its large landing ships that were being used to transport military supplies from Russia to Ukraine. They will be furiously working to rectify this, or they may even resort to dismantling some ships to re-build damaged ones. Refurbishing is a common practice for maintaining the functionality of Russian military assets.
Ukraine has to further complicate this by increasing the attacks over Crimea. The pace of attacks has increased a bit in the last month compared to earlier, but more can be done. Ukraine’s strategy must allow them to gradually wear down the Kremlin’s army and prepare for a decisive engagement in the second half of this year.
Introduce the F16s
The timing and the decision to introduce the F16s will largely depend on the size of the air-defense stockpile. Since January, Ukrainian President Zelensky and his officials have been voicing their concerns over the dwindling air-defense stock. They have repeatedly requested more Patriot air-defense systems.
There are plenty of systems available around the world. There is a whole lot of patriot interceptor (air-defense missiles) stock available as well.
President Biden has emergency powers using which he can send them, but he is more likely to wait for the Ukraine aid bill to pass the U.S. House of Representatives before taking any decisive action. It is political, but it is understandable. From his point of view, if he exercises the emergency powers, then the aid bill is never going to get cleared in the House. Everyone is going to ask why he did not do that before and suggest he send weapons to Ukraine through this method. There will be certain repercussions he most probably loathes to take considering how close the bill is to being passed.
Yes, my confidence in the bill clearing the House has considerably increased, as the Republicans are down to 217 seats in the House.
217 is the exact number needed to pass anything in the current House. House Speaker Johnson is dependent on Democratic support to remain as Speaker until the elections. He knows it, and the Democrats know it. Expect the Ukraine bill to clear. I don’t know when, but it will, hopefully in April.
If that happens, then at the very least, the United States will supply more Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. If Biden sends two more Patriots, it will have a huge impact on the field.
Once Ukraine is stocked up on air-defense missiles, Ukraine can make it their mission to knock down the next A-50 early warning aircraft. They have already brought down two of these aircraft this year. Taking the necessary risk to bring down the next one is totally worth it because if Russia loses the next one, they will have just five A-50s in their fleet. They will not be able to do round-the-clock A-50 runs, which are extremely crucial for them to keep an eye on the Ukrainian sky.
It is not a requirement, but it would be great to knock down one more A-50 before sending the F16s into battle, to send the message to the Russians that we are ready to send you packing.
The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.
