Ukraine Sinks a Crucial Russian Ship in the Black Sea
Crimean waters turn treacherous for Putin’s Black Sea Fleet
I was worried.
Just a tad uneasy after witnessing the Ukrainian military relentlessly take down Russian aircraft over the last eight weeks. With the rapid pace of Russian planes being shot down, I couldn’t help but worry if the Ukrainian military would sustain the same level of aggression against the Black Sea Fleet.
The Ukrainian campaign to control navigation in the Black Sea continues.
Yesterday, Ukraine delivered a strong message to the Russian navy. “Get out of Crimea.” The consequence of refusal for Russia are growing, with a mounting list of naval losses, including sunk, damaged, or rendered useless ships each passing month.
The series of devastating blows began with the sinking of the Moskva, followed by the loss of four amphibious landing ships, numerous patrol boats, a submarine, and a transport ship. The latest casualty is the guided missile ship “Ivanovets”, a significant setback considering the Black Sea Fleet possesses only three such vessels.
The strike on the Ivanovets came hours after Ukraine on Wednesday launched a barrage of missiles at Crimea, in what Ukraine’s Air Force Commander described as part of “the cleansing of Crimea from the Russian presence. Ukraine launched 20 airborne guided missiles at Crimea, with Russian air defenses destroying 17 of them over the Black Sea and three more over the peninsula”.
I’m not surprised that Ukraine successfully targeted a Russian warship with their naval drones. However, what perplexes me is the continued movement of the Russian navy around Crimea. It seems illogical given that Ukraine has consistently been targeting both airborne and naval assets in the region. Storm Shadow cruise missiles routinely strike military installations, and sea drones have repeatedly managed to hit Russian naval vessels. The situation raises questions about the strategic decisions and risk assessment within the Russian navy.
Russians were well aware of the risks, which prompted them to relocate the majority of their ships to Novorussiya, a base located hundreds of miles away from Crimea. Despite this precaution, for unknown reasons, they continue to instruct their ships to navigate around the Crimea region.
The Ever Shrinking Black Sea Fleet:
In November of last year, Ukraine’s military reported that their operations had led to the destruction of a total of 15 Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea since the commencement of Russia’s invasion, with an additional 12 vessels sustaining damage.
- On December 26, Ukraine sunk a landing ship named Novocherkassk.
- Yesterday, Ukraine successfully targeted and destroyed a guided missile ship named the “Ivanovets”
That brings the tally to 29 ships either destroyed or damaged since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to some estimates, Russia initially had approximately 70 to 80 ships in the Black Sea. If accurate, this would mean that Russia has incurred losses amounting to around 40% of its naval fleet operating in the Black Sea.
How is Ukraine achieving this?
Ukraine employed Storm Shadow missiles to target Russian naval ships, including a submarine and a docked landing ship in the Sevastopol naval base last year. The Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by a Neptune missile fired from the shores during one such opportunistic moment. However, beyond these isolated incidents, the consistent success has been attributed to Ukraine’s naval drones, delivering precise hits to the Russian navy. As of now, the Russian navy has not formulated an effective response, resorting primarily to distancing itself from the ongoing engagements.
If the Russian navy is clueless against Ukraine’s naval drones, they are going to be in huge trouble when Ukraine deploys its underwater drones.
According to a report by Warzone, Ukraine is actively developing a underwater drone: “New video shows a prototype of a large Ukrainian drone submarine moving under its own power just under the surface of the water. Much about the design, dubbed Marichka, remains murky, but the organization behind it says it could be used to launch kamikaze attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure. This is a kind of capability that Ukraine has a clear interest in and uncrewed surface vessels have already become a key Ukrainian weapon for striking at the Russian Navy and other targets in and around the Black Sea”.
Ukraine has changed Naval warfare and they will change it further before this war ends.
Big is bad.
Highly risky even.
Sea drones have the capability to engage in swarm attacks, akin to a pack of wolves. The vulnerability extends beyond open waters, as docks become unsafe without adequate air defenses. The conventional belief that larger ships inherently offer better protection or sophistication has been overturned. Instead, the larger size makes the ship more susceptible to targeting, highlighting a shift in the dynamics of naval security.
The timeline for the deployment of underwater drones remains uncertain. However, anticipating their arrival poses significant challenges in terms of protection. How does one effectively track and respond to such submerged weapons? The complexity of these questions underscores the formidable task of devising countermeasures in the face of this emerging technology.
Russian Black Sea Fleet: Capacity and Capability Reduction
The Russians used the Black Sea Fleet for four main objectives:
- Naval Blockade: Restrict navigation in the black sea. Stop Ukraine from exporting its grains through the sea.
- Attack Ukrainian Mainland: Given the distance from the frontline, Crimean naval bases provide a secure launching point for the Russian navy. This advantage has been exploited to deploy Kalibr missiles, striking various locations across the Ukrainian mainland.
- Transport goods from mainland to Crimea
- Amphibious assaults
Ukraine’s relentless attacks on the Black Sea Fleet has restricted the movement of Russian navy in the Black Sea. The decision to move the ships out of the naval base in Sevastopol Crimea, to the Russian base in Novorossiya, which is 400kms away from Crimea, gave Ukraine additional time to intercept the missiles launched by the Russian navy.
Ukraine must maintain relentless pressure on the Black Sea Fleet, ensuring continuous strikes until no threat remains. The presence of the guided missile ship ‘Ivanovets’ near Crimea is surprising, considering it is a $70 million ship. This becomes even more perplexing, given that it has only been four weeks since the loss of the $85 million landing ship Novocherkassk off the Crimea coast near Fedosia.
After Ukrainians sunk Novocherkassk in December 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that he informed President Vladimir Putin “about the damage to our large landing ship” with a “very detailed report”.
So much for the detail.
Why did they keep travelling in the waters of Crimea, when Ukraine keeps taking them down?
Ukraine is sending a clear message to Russia. East or west. Air or land. Sea or shore. It does not matter. If you are in Crimea, we will hit. Russia is now losing at least one ship every month. Two massive losses in two months will force the Russian navy to further restrict the travel routes of Russian navy in the Black Sea.
I have a great solution for the Russian Navy. Never get out of the Novorossiya port. Forget transport. It is not worth it.
I hope President Putin gets another detailed report on the damage to the ship.
