Ukraine Sinks Caesar Kunikov
Avdiivka retreat might be on
Caesar Kunikov, one of the largest landing ships in the Russian Black Sea fleet that was used to transport weapons and ammunition to Syria in the past, is no more.
Hours ago, on February 14th, 2024 “Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the Caesar Kunikov was sunk at sea off the coast near the city of Alupka in Crimea by MAGURA V5 sea drones belonging to the Main Directorate of Intelligence”.
Ouch!
Ukrainian Spy Chief Kyrllo Budanov has a penchant for sending messages to the Kremlin. The death of Caesar Kunikov occurred on the same date as that of the man it was named after, Caesar Lvovich Kunikov, who died in 1943.
This is the second Ropucha-class landing ship that the Ukrainian army has brought down in two months. Novocherkassk was destroyed using missiles in the last week of December 2023 near Feodosia, while Caesar Kunikov was brought down with naval drones near Alupka. Between the sinking of these two landing ships, Ukraine had also destroyed a guided missile carrier named Ivanovets.
Russia does not have many of these ships. According to public reports, there were four amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea at the start of the invasion. Two have been lost. Yamal and Azov are the two remaining Ropucha-class landing ships left in the Black Sea fleet.
These attacks have severely crippled the ability of the Black Sea Fleet to transport goods and weapons. As the number of landing ships dwindles, the pressure on the remaining ships will increase. The Black Sea Fleet will have no choice but to increase the travel rate of these two landing ships, making them a nice little target to be taken down.
The sheer distance the naval drones have to travel to take down the ship is breathtaking. There are two other possibilities. Ukraine might be launching these drones from boats, which means they are heavily patrolling the western Black Sea. If this is the case, then it is an extremely bad development for Russia. The other option is to have Ukrainian partisans or soldiers launching these drones from inside Crimea. If this is the case, it is even worse because it would mean Russians are not in control of Crimea.
The Magura 5 drones have an operational range of 800 km (500 miles). I believe Ukraine is deploying them from secured zones, either from their shores or from boats in the westernmost parts of the Black Sea. Through its attacks in the last two months, Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to sink the Black Sea Fleet using naval drones as well as long-range missiles.
The Black Sea Fleet continues to shrink. Since Turkey has refused passage of naval ships into the Black Sea, every ship lost by Russia is a significant blow. They are well on their way to becoming a Black Sea naval power only on paper.
Avdiivka Retreat Might Be On
David Axe, who covers the Russian invasion for Forbes, reports that the Ukrainian army is retreating from Avdiivka.
Ukraine Has Two Specialized Assault Brigades. It Sent One To Avdiivka To Cover The Garrison’s Retreat. The 3rd Assault Brigade is engaged in an ‘active defense.’
The survivors of the battered 110th Brigade surely are grateful for the 3rd Brigade’s aggressive tactics as they retreat from eastern Avdiivka under the assault brigade’s covering fire.
But they also should hope commanders don’t push their luck — and order the 3rd Assault Brigade to advance. Ukraine needs the 3rd Brigade. It can’t afford to waste it fighting for half of a ruined city that Ukrainian forces simply can’t hold.
— David Axe
The Institute for the Study of War remains non-committal to this development as they did not even mention the situation in Avdiivka as part of their key takeaways section.
Russian forces reportedly continued to advance within Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting in the area on February 13. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in northern and central Avdiivka and on the southeastern and southern outskirts of the settlement, although ISW has not yet observed confirmation of further Russian gains within Avdiivka
I believe David Axe is correct. Ukraine is most likely strategically retreating from Avdiivka. Take a look at the following map from the ISW.
There are three pockets where the Russian forces have advanced. Ukraine has two choices: either they eliminate the Russian invaders in those pockets or slowly withdraw their soldiers who are now encountering Russian troops from multiple directions.
It is possible for Ukraine to feign a retreat to prepare for a counterattack. However, the problem lies in the amount of resources they possess. Any counterattack on Russian positions will require a significant amount of resources, as Russia has amassed considerable combat capacity in the region. Ukraine does not have the resources to confront them.
I believe a gradual retreat would be a much better option. If they can hold on until the end of this month, it would be great. If not, they should simply evacuate. This fight is not worth investing so many Ukrainian resources, as they would be better spent on defending from the trench lines built behind miles of mines.
Ukraine has to lie low until American aid starts to flow again.
Ukraine or Europe do not need American money. Europe has sufficient funds and is willing to provide assistance. However, there are systems on the battlefield for which only Americans have the capacity to manufacture. Europe can pay for and purchase those weapons. However, it would be a significant embarrassment for the Biden administration, and I am confident that no one is even discussing that option.
The President of the United States could simply declare everything as surplus and send whatever he wants to Ukraine. However, he is attempting to get the Ukraine aid bill cleared out of the U.S. Congress. He has committed himself to the bill. Since this is an election year, he would prefer to clear the bill first and then restart the flow of weapons for Ukraine.
It was a series of mistakes committed by the administration that led us to this point. However, we cannot go back and erase them. The bill has cleared the Senate and is now in the House. Democrats have a path to clear this bill, and it is not impossible. To be honest, I don’t think this will be a heavy lift either. Dems can accomplish it from here.
That is why I believe it would be better for Ukraine not to launch any counter-offensive to hold on to Avdiivka. A strategic and gradual retreat is the best option under the current circumstances.
Something is happening between Russia and India
“Bloomberg reported on February 13 that at least 21 of the 50 oil tankers that the US has sanctioned since October 2023 for carrying Russian crude oil priced above the G7’s $60 price cap have stopped transporting Russian oil and petroleum products.[32] Bloomberg also reported that in the past two months roughly half of 14 idling oil tankers carrying Russian oil to India have since turned around from their destination without unloading”.
I started noticing this trend since the second week of December, when Reuters reported “Five mln barrels of Russian Sokol oil stuck en route to India.”
Media reports in the early days indicated that the problem stemmed from payment issues. India refused to pay using Chinese currency, and Russia did not have an alternative payment method. Consequently, the ships either returned or rerouted to China. Some reports suggested it was due to the G7 price cap, without delving into details on why that would pose a problem. Now we have reports that say “Indian government sources have recently reportedly stated that India wants to distance itself from Russia due to the war in Ukraine, limiting Russia’s ability to provide India with munitions.”
Something is clearly amiss. I have no idea which version to believe. However, what I do know now is that India believes it can quickly find a replacement for millions of barrels of Russian oil. The oil market has enough supply, and the gradual accumulation of Russian oil will only further lubricate the supply situation.
This would be the ideal moment for the West to intervene in the Russia-India relationship. If this crucial support base can be disrupted, Russia will become highly reliant on China for selling its commodities. From being a dominant supplier to Germany, Putin-controlled Russia will transition to a over dependent supplier for China within two short years.
Russian weapons are one of the main factors that compel India to maintain its connection with Russia. Europe is operating on three shifts to increase its weapons production. Convert India into a major customer by offering attractive incentives, long-term deals, and making them the primary buyer of European weapons.
