Ukraine Smashes Through Russian Lines, Advances 5KM into Kursk

A Precision Strike to Lock in Gains in Kursk Oblast

As I sat down to write this, one thought kept running through my mind — how would Western media have covered a Russian advance that punched through Ukrainian lines by more than five kilometers in a single day? The headlines would have screamed of collapse. Long stories would have dissected Ukraine’s mobilization troubles, rehashing every struggle from the past months. And, of course, they would have pointed out how Putin keeps advancing despite an economy that’s been teetering for months.

It would be yada, yada, and more yada. Somehow, they’d spin the narrative that the front lines are crumbling and that helping Ukraine is an uphill battle. That’s been the stance since the war began. Never mind that Russian casualties have skyrocketed fivefold in less than three years. Never mind that Kyiv hasn’t lost a single major population center since April 2022. Somehow, Ukraine is always the loser.

Whatever.

In less than 24 hours, Ukraine advanced more than five kilometers in Kursk Oblast. They broke through a key Russian offensive line near Sudza — a town I consider the anchor of the fight for Kursk Oblast. Ukraine refuses to lose it, and Russia is desperate to take it.

ISW has geo-confirmed the advance and the depth:

Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.

Geolocated footage published on February 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Sudzha along the 38K-028 Sudzha-Oboyan highway and seized Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and Fanaseyevka (just southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka).

To understand what Ukraine did yesterday, we first need to understand what Russia was trying to do. Putin has stacked close to 80,000 troops in Kursk Oblast. Their objective? To attack Ukrainian positions from three directions and slowly push them out of Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from Russian territory, they lose leverage in negotiations — no bargaining chip, no way to demand an exchange of land.

To force Ukraine out of Kursk Oblast, Russia needs to retake Sudza, a critical town less than 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. To make that happen, Russian forces launched a grinding assault from the east. They made some gains in the southeast, pushing their frontline right up to the riverbanks. In the south, they were on the edge of Sudza — almost there.

Then Ukraine hit back. Hard.

The advance is detailed in the images below.

I don’t see this counterattack turning into a large-scale offensive that swallows up hundreds of square kilometers of Russian territory. This advance is highly strategic. When Ukraine takes Ulanok, they’ll cut off supply lines to Russian troops now stationed at the border of Sudza. That Russian frontline — so close to the town — will have two choices: stay put and get trapped with Ukraine at their back and a river in front, or retreat.

Russia will try to send reinforcements to prevent their units from being cut off. But if they pull troops from inside Kursk to do it, they risk weakening another section of the frontline — opening the door for Ukraine to strike again and create another breach.

It’s going to be a game of cat and mouse for a while before things settle.

How does this impact the theater?

Putin has been desperate to avoid committing more troops to Kursk. His focus remains on the older frontlines, pushing toward the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast. He wants to capture Pokrovsk. If that fails, he’d settle for reaching the edges of Kupiansk. One major breakthrough — anywhere — as fast as possible, that’s his goal.

To do that, he needs to keep as many troops as possible on the older front. Ukraine, of course, wants the exact opposite. They also can’t afford to lose Sudza. Now, Putin faces a tough choice — send reinforcements to Kursk to halt Ukraine’s advance or shuffle forces within Kursk and risk a breach elsewhere.

Ukraine benefits from dragging this out. The slower they push, the more they force Putin to commit additional troops to Kursk, draining his strength elsewhere. That’s why I don’t see this turning into a large-scale counteroffensive. It will be sharp, short, and tactical. And if Russia shifts troops within Kursk to plug the gap, expect another Ukrainian counterattack where those troops just left.

Thanks for reading. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 351 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.