Ukraine throws a Dnipro Dare at Putin’s Army
Yesterday evening, there was a notable surge in discussions within the Russian military blogging community. Many of them expressed significant concern about the potential consequences of Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro River, near the damaged Antonovsky bridge, and breaching Russian defenses in the vicinity.
I’m pretty sure those two Western publications will briefly touch upon this development and downplay its significance. They’ll likely convey the idea that Ukraine crossing the river and engaging Russian defenses in Pishchanivka, just 3 kilometers away, and Poyma, which is 4 kilometers from the Dnipro River, isn’t really a major deal.
I agree with them, when you consider these events in isolation, it’s anything but insignificant.
Ukraine has been persistently trying to establish a bridgehead, or at the very least maintain a presence of some sort on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River for an extended period. There was an attempt in April, July, August and many more.
As of today, a bridgehead remains elusive. Setting it up is the straightforward part; it’s the challenge of keeping it going that’s truly daunting. Once you’ve crossed the river, your supplies become limited, while the opposing side operates at the tip of its established logistical network.
The defending forces can maintain a steady flow of reinforcements and resources to the front, leveraging their aerial capabilities to disrupt any established supply lines connecting the attacking forces on both sides of the river.
The odds always favor the defender.
Ukraine had longed for a bridgehead and aimed to see it expand for as long as they could manage. However, despite their year-long efforts, it remained elusive. This might be the first time I’ve seen the odds tilt slightly in Ukraine’s favor. I don’t think they need a bridgehead to send mechanized columns and artillery units across the river. They can attain their goals without having to establish a…