Ukraine War: Finland Gives Finishing Touches to The Dark Blue Wall
Putin suffers his worst strategic and geo-political defeat as a result of his invasion
Finland has a history. In that history, the Soviet Union occupies plenty of pages.
Pages that are filled with politics, blood, brutality, violence, independence and more politics.
Finland was part of the Swedish Kingdom for a long time. Alexander I, the emperor of Russia, ripped Finland from the Swedish kingdom and turned it into an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian Empire. It was 1809.
For the next 108 years, Finland remained as an extension of the Russian empire, offering cover in the form of occupied land for Russia’s then capital in St. Petersburg. Everything turned upside down by the Russian Civil War in 1917. The Bolshevik Russian government that came to power declared minorities can decide whether to stay in the Russian union or secede.
Taking advantage of the offer, Finland declared independence in 1917.
Seven years after Finland’s independence Joseph R. Stalin took the reins of Communist Party of the Soviet Union. The red army slowly took shape, while the seeds of the Soviet ideology that we are witnessing to this day was sown.
The Soviets blamed Finland’s leadership as a “vicious and reactionary fascist clique”. Stalin set the stage for his army to make a push towards the west with his propaganda and finally invaded Finland in 1939.
Fins gave the Soviets a bloody eye.
The three month war resulted in 70k casualties for Finland while the Soviets lost 381k. The hostilities ceased with a treaty signed in Moscow. Finland gave up 9% of its territory. Hitler assumed the Soviets were easy targets because of the battering the red army received from Finland.
In addition to knowing their history, Fins also recognize that history sometimes repeats itself. In the aftermath of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the support for joining NATO jumped from 20% before the invasion to 78% after the invasion.
NATO’s border with Russia doubled this week after Turkey, the last holdout, accepted Finland’s membership. NATO’s map has been redrawn after the Turkish parliament approved Finland’s bid.
What happens now?
Now that Turkey has made its decision, it will notify the United States. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary of the alliance, will then request that Finland sign the Washington Treaty and become a member of NATO.
The Impact:
For decades Finland maintained a neutral stance between the NATO alliance and Russia. The seeds of Finland’s independent streak was planted centuries ago as, Finland, caught in the crossfire between the Swedes and the Russians, just wanted to keep both sides at arm’s length.
For centuries, Finns wished to stay out of regional power games. In the spirit of the notion of Adolf Ivar Arwidsson (1791–1858) — “we are not Swedes, we do not want to become Russians, let us, therefore, be Finns” — a Finnish national identity started to become established.
Before the Ukraine war, Finland’s reluctance to join NATO was also influenced by the perception of Russian threats. Vladimir Putin would have never allowed Finland to join the alliance because it brings one of the formidable security alliances in the world to Russia’s doorstep.
“Russia has repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, saying the “serious military and political consequences” of such a move would oblige it to “restore military balance” by strengthening its defenses in the Baltic Sea region, including by deploying nuclear weapons”.
As soon as Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, Finland started working closely with NATO. The history books will now record that Finland joined NATO after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Due to Finland’s neutral stance between NATO and Russia, it invested in its own security. As of 2021, Finland’s defense budget was 2% of its GDP, nearly half a percentage point more than Germany and as good as France.
The result is that Finland has one of the best militaries in Europe. “Finland’s artillery forces, for instance, are the largest and best equipped in Western Europe — with some 1,500 artillery weapons, including 700 Howitzer guns, 700 heavy mortar and 100 rocket launcher systems, according to an analysis by the Wilson Center, a research organization.
The number of active-duty military personnel in Finland’s defense forces is a modest 23,000 troops, but its wartime strength can grow quickly to 280,000 forces because of an extensive conscription system that can mobilize up to nearly one million troops”.
Finland’s addition to NATO changes everything. Accession will expand NATOs exposure to the Nordic strip, overlooking Russia’s maritime access to the Baltic sea.
As soon as Sweden joins NATO, which I believe it will after some back and forth with Turkey and Hungary, NATO’s grip on the Baltic sea will be complete. There is a huge strategic problem for Russia since they have to defend 830 miles of border with Finland as well as worry about NATO positioning its naval strength in the Baltic Sea.
Smart Finland. Mindless Russia
Under normal circumstances, Finland would never have joined NATO due to Putin’s threat. Putin would have amassed his forces near Finland’s border and threatened them with an invasion while using Russia’s nuclear arsenal in his statements the moment Finland announced its intention to join NATO.
It is impossible for him to even make a half-hearted attempt to accomplish any of the above.
By September 2022, Putin’s first army had been decimated. Right now, the second army is being hammered. Russia is buying drones from Iran and “millions of shells and rockets” from North Korea because their munitions are running low. The Ukrainian air defenses have forced Russia to keep its aircraft far from the frontlines.
From Finland’s perspective, this is the perfect time. At its weakest, Russia cannot do anything except issue statements from the Kremlin. Their Ukraine invasion has progressed from failing to capture half of Ukrainian territory to failing to capture all of Donbas to failing to capture Bakhmut. In this Russia with a namesake army, 300,000 men cannot capture a small town.
As soon as the war began, Finland’s President visited the United States. It is likely that both men would have discussed the possibility of Finland joining NATO. As Putin still had a proper army at that time, the threat he posed to the expansion of the alliance would have been greater.
It turns out that the little hurdle Turkey posed to Finland’s joining the security alliance was actually a blessing in disguise since the real threat to Finland’s joining, the Russian army, neutralized on its own in the killing fields of Ukraine.
The Western Wall is Full and Final
Putin has erected a wall that will not move in the future. A wall that runs through Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, and ends in Kazakhstan. It is unlikely that any of these countries will have a proper trading relationship with Russia.
The Russian market with 146 million Russian consumers will be disdained as these countries look westward to connect with Europe tightly.
As these nations realize that standing together makes them better than when they are alone, regional cooperation will only increase from where it is now. There is already evidence of the effort. It was the Baltic nations that first offered support to Ukraine, and they have continued to do so to this day. A desperate desire to remain independent has replaced fear of Russia.
Kazakhstan’s moves against Russia and towards the west illustrate how much of a mistake Putin made by invading Ukraine.
“For some time, Kazakhstan had maintained a relatively neutral posture in the face of geopolitical tensions in the region, often skilfully balancing its interests between Russia, Europe and China without causing much attention internationally. However, the country’s response to the Ukrainian crisis has been noteworthy, and its slow exit from a tight political tango with Russia has begun attracting interest from politicians and businesses across Europe and the West.
Kazakhstan has publicly condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and its President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has been vocal in calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, refusing to play a role in Putin’s attempts to escape international political isolation. In June 2022, Kazakhstan’s leader even told Putin face-to-face that Astana would not recognise the self-proclaimed Russian-backed Donbas republics, a pivotal moment in relations between the two countries”.
Now it’s over. Putin’s plan to expand the Russian empire westward has brought an iron curtain painted in blue to Russia’s western borders. Putin thought he could eliminate them all by isolating them and attacking them one by one. 2008 for Georgia and 2022 for Ukraine. Currently, Russia is weak, isolated, and incapable of recovering its former strength.
