Ukraine’s Air-Defense is Almost Ready to Host the F16s
No-Fly Zone for Ukraine: Why-Air Defense is the Key
In modern warfare, robust anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems are crucial. They not only shield civilians and infrastructure from devastating attacks but also dictate how battles unfold. For Ukraine to effectively deploy F-16 fighter jets and gain the upper hand, a strong air defense umbrella is crucial.
What a difference the single Patriot unit standing like a sentinel in Kyiv has accomplished. Almost all the European missions operating in Ukraine do so without the fear of war. Gone are the days of air-raid sirens sounding off every week, forcing people to drop whatever they are doing and scramble to the nearest shelter. Now, residents are confident enough to weather missile barrages by remaining inside their homes in Kyiv.
The brief period when Ukraine ran out of air-defense missiles in March 2024 was more than enough for Russia to find a breach and launch their missiles into the hydroelectric plant powering the Kyiv region.
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrhydroenergo’s stations cost around 500 million euros ($545.5 million).
Fifty Patriot interceptors per month will cost the West $200 million. With an annual expenditure of $2.4 billion, this investment can save billions of dollars in reconstruction costs. Europe has committed to sending $50 billion in economic and humanitarian aid over four years. Germany announced yesterday that Europe will utilize 90% of the interest accumulated by Russia’s frozen assets to assist Ukraine.
They’re sending money to help Ukraine mend its broken bones. When preventive care is an option, why choose the far more expensive reactive care?
Increasing the number of long-range air-defense systems such as Patriots and SAMP/T will alleviate the pressure on the existing systems, which are currently struggling to cover the vast expanse of Ukrainian territory.
How many long range air-defense systems does Ukraine need?
There are only two long-range air-defense systems in the Western world. One is the American-made Patriot air-defense system with a range of 160 kilometers and a capacity to track up to 100 targets simultaneously. The other is the French-made SAMP/T system, which has a range of 150 kilometers and a capacity to track up to 100 targets simultaneously.
The frontline in Ukraine, stretching from Odesa to Kyiv, on the side facing Russia, spans approximately 1,200 to 1,500 kilometers.
To cover the baseline Ukraine will need atleast eight long range systems facing the frontline, two more units to cover the population centers and another two units as standby. A total of twelve units will offer strong air-defense coverage for Ukraine. It still won’t be impenetrable, as Russia is bound to test the limits of such air-defense coverage by opting for a high volume attack on a short period. But it will be execeedingly difficult for them to find the gaps.
Since these long-range air-defense systems can be further augmented with medium-range air-defense systems like the German-made IRIS-T and NASAMS, both with ranges of less than 50 kilometers, Ukraine will establish a robust air-defense network that can effectively protect F16 fighter jets.
Without the ability to protect the entirety of the frontline, the airfields from which the fighter jets take off will always be under extreme danger. Russia maintains a stockpile of around 900 missiles, and reports suggest they have acquired some duds from North Korea and received a substantial shipment of missiles from Iran as well.
All those Russian missiles will do their utmost to prevent the F16s from taking off from the runway. If Ukraine has any open gaps in its air defense coverage, Russia will exploit them, probing to identify vulnerabilities and directing missiles accordingly. Ukraine requires a bare minimum of eight long-range systems to close these gaps and afford the F16s some degree of operational freedom.
In 2023, the United States supplied 1 Patriot air-defense system, Germany provided 2 units, and the Netherlands donated one Patriot fire unit. (A fire unit is essentially the same Patriot system but with bare minimum components to perform its air-defense function.) This totals four units. Additionally, France and Italy supplied one SAMP/T system each.
A total of five long-range units in 2023.
In 2024, Germany has pledged to provide one Patriot fire unit, while Italy will be sending one SAMP/T system. Both systems are expected to arrive in Ukraine by June. Europe exerted considerable pressure on Spain to send one of its Patriot systems to Ukraine, as they have four units available. However, Spain refused and instead sent a shipment of Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
Yesterday, Romania announced that they are ready to discuss the possibility of sending a Patriot system to Ukraine.
BUCHAREST, May 7 (Reuters) — Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said on Tuesday he was open to discussing sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine after German appeals to European Union and NATO member states to bolster Ukraine’s air defences.
I think Romania may seek a guarantee that the system will be replaced at a later date, or they may require some other form of air-defense replacements, or perhaps financial compensation. Whatever the terms may be, the public announcement of their willingness to discuss is certainly good news.
As of today, Ukraine possesses five long-range systems, with Germany and Italy committed to sending two more. If Romania also sends one, Ukraine will have the minimum required to start operating the F16s. However, I believe they still need at least two more systems to gain the upper hand in their fight against Russian missiles and the Russian air force.
What should Ukraine do?
I believe the allies have responded reasonably well on the air-defense front. From the outset, my opinion has remained consistent: Ukraine cannot introduce F16s into the battlefield without adequate air-defense protection. Doing so would be futile and would likely result in heavy losses. I advocate for waiting until the air-defense umbrella is strong enough to provide proper protection before risking the deployment of F16s.
With the supply of two additional long-range systems and the potential for one more from Romania, Ukraine will be able to fully protect certain sectors of the map. I believe Ukraine can now consider introducing the F16s, but I advocate for starting small, perhaps with half a squadron initially. This approach would allow them to get their logistical operations in formation and then gradually scale up.
While some of our readers argue for hitting full scale immediately, I believe a cautious and incremental approach would be more prudent.
Regardless of the option chosen, Ukraine’s air defense has been significantly strengthened. They are now in a position to introduce the F16s to the battlefield.
However, Ukraine cannot afford to pause its efforts to further strengthen its long-range air defense network. While eight systems provide reasonable coverage, they are likely to leave some gaps that may need to be filled with medium-range air defense systems. This approach could potentially give the Russians hope and incentive to believe they have a chance. Therefore, it’s essential for Ukraine to continue bolstering its air defense capabilities to maintain a strong deterrent.
If victory is the goal, then shutting the enemy’s air force out of the battlefield is a must. The most effective strategy to achieve this is by saturating the battlefield with long-range air defense systems. At a cost of around one billion dollars per system, acquiring another two to four systems would be a nominal expense for the combined economic strength of the Western world.
Ukraine must maintain pressure to secure its defense needs
If diplomatic efforts stall, Ukraine should consider raising funds independently and ordering the necessary systems. It’s perplexing why the West cannot utilize the interest payments from Russian frozen assets, which total $5 billion annually, to procure four units and 200 Patriot interceptors from Raytheon. Europe can place the order. President Biden can order Raytheon to move Ukraine to the top of the supply queue. Deliver one Patriot unit a month. (current production capacity for Patriot stands at one unit a month)
Why do they have to always make the easiest things hard?
There’s no guarantee that the West will continue to add more air defense systems once the eight long-range units are in place. Historically, they have adopted a minimal delivery strategy to prevent Ukraine from collapsing entirely.
They only supplied multiple rocket launchers and other artillery systems after Russia began advancing and seizing towns in mid-2022. Patriots were sent to Ukraine after Russia came very close to collapsing Ukraine’s energy grid in early 2023. The recent aid, restocking of air-defense missiles, and additional air-defense system shipments are responses to Russia’s renewed aggression and targeting of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
I strongly believe that once the situation stabilizes, the West will immediately hit the snooze button.
This approach will not secure Ukraine’s victory; it will merely sustain them in the short term, leaving an opportunity for Putin to prevail. To prevent this outcome, Ukraine requires at least two additional long-range air defense systems, with +four being the ideal number.
Ukraine should begin working on this immediately. They must adopt a mindset of self-reliance, acknowledging that while they may seek assistance, they should also prepare to find solutions on their own.
They should place an order for two units with their own money.
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