Ukraine’s Ascent on the French Ramp Nears
Better late than never…
I believe we tend to be somewhat predisposed to focus on the negative.
Despite the French President articulating the right ideas and subsequently implementing actionable decisions, there seems to be a lingering trace of doubt. To overcome this, I think it is necessary to diligently monitor the actions of the French administration and weigh them against their words.
Decisions are flying in every direction from the Macron government.
France will not decommission weapons
The easiest information to access from public resources is the amount of money allocated to producing weapons. Conversely, it’s much more challenging and near impossible to find the costs incurred when these weapons exceed their expiration date. Many countries opt to either scrap them or place them in cold storage. This storage has proven useful for the Russians, who invest more time in retrofitting their Soviet-era weapons rather than focusing on developing new Russian-era weapons.
Either way, plenty of weapons of various types find their way to the scrapyard. France has made the decision to cease this practice. If there’s anything destined for the dump yard or cold storage, they intend to send it to Ukraine.
On March 29, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that instead of scrapping decommissioned military equipment, France will transfer it to Ukraine. Lecornu highlighted that France possesses a considerable amount of operational equipment slated for decommissioning in the future. He proposed that it would be more beneficial to offer this equipment to Ukraine rather than disposing of it.
As soon as France expressed interest in sending some of its estimated 2,500 VAB armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, media attention skyrocketed.
It wasn’t good.
“France is sending scrap to Ukraine,” someone said. And the theme began to appear in numerous articles discussing the matter.
Honestly, they’d be wise to go through with it. Scrap metal is far better than no metal at all. Ukraine has consistently demonstrated superior resourcefulness. I have often seen frontline soldiers utilizing civilian cars and pickup trucks to transport goods and people to the front lines.
Let Ukraine decide.
They need to collaborate closely with the French administration. I believe they would have already begun this process, examining all the decommissioned weapons. They should then compile a list of what would be beneficial, retrofitting them either in their own factories or in France, and putting them to use.
In addition to this, France has also announced that they will no longer be exporting certain types of weapons, such as artillery systems and shells. The entire production capacity will be utilized to increase the stockpiles of both France and Ukraine.
They are currently negotiating the return of French weapons from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has 156 Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and 100 light 105-mm LG1 howitzers, while the United Arab Emirates holds a stock of SCALP missiles. Details are still unclear, but if I were to speculate, France would most likely either pay for their return or promise replacements at a later date. They would then procure them back and send them to Ukraine.
This essentially outlines their strategy for making the use of existing resources. They are squeezing the toothpaste out of the tube. There is toothpaste and it can be used. So, why not?
France is challenging their industry to buckle up
French officials issued a stern warning to the industry, indicating that they are ready to requisition “personnel, stocks, or production tools” from the nation’s defense industries and their subcontractors if there is no improvement in weapons production rates.
Sébastien Lecornu, France’s minister for the armed forces, said recently that unless industry can “produce more and faster” then he was not averse to invoking the law to speed up their actions.
“They are no longer [state-held] armories, they are companies. Nevertheless, they are companies like no others. For the first time, I’m not ruling out the idea of using what the law allows the minister and the delegate general for armament from doing,” Lecornu said.
“That is to say that if their performance concerning production speeds and lead times are unsatisfactory, then to undertake requisitions if need be.
If production rates are sometimes too slow it’s because there is a temptation to work on a just-in-time basis and to not have enough stocks of raw materials or components so as to avoid immobilizing treasury to constitute these stocks. But, after two years of war in Ukraine it is unthinkable for our defense industry to not continue with its transformation.”
Lecornu made some significant announcements, providing valuable insights into the distribution of weapons that will result from the realignment of the French defense industry.
- MBDA must deliver 300 Mistral ground-to-air missiles worth €150 million this summer instead of in early 2025.
- The 200 long-range Aster missiles worth €900 million must be delivered before the end of this year, instead of 2026.
- Nexter must deliver 55,000 150mm shells worth €600 million for the Caesar artillery systems. Expected to be delivered this summer instead of being spread over mulitple years.
- Safran is expected to deliver 600 guided AASM air-to-surface missiles in 2024 and 1,200 in 2025.
- They continue to maintain a high level of secrecy regarding the expected production quantity of Aster missiles. However, it’s evident that this missile remains their top priority.
France has the capacity to take action
In 2023, France announced an unprecedented increase in its defense budget: €413 billion to be invested over a seven-year period from 2024 to 2030. This marks a €105 billion increase compared to the previous seven-year period, amounting to a 32% bump.
So, the budgetary provision was already in place. You can accomplish a lot with €105 billion. Therefore, if France wants to, it can allocate the funds to the appropriate areas. And indeed, they are doing just that. It’s evident where they are trying to apply pressure.
Air-defense and air-to-ground missiles seem to have garnered particular attention. Over the past few weeks, I’ve observed that whenever the defense minister discusses weapons production, he consistently mentions MBDA, the leading missile manufacturer in Europe.
They are the ones who manufacture the Aster 30 missiles used by the SAMP/T systems, which is the French version of the American Patriot air-defense systems. (Eurosam manufactures the Aster family of missiles, but they are part owned by MBDA)
In February 2023, France and Italy agreed to send the SAMP/T air-defense systems to Ukraine. Earlier this year, Zelensky, without naming the system, stated that Ukraine had received two air-defense systems.
On February 2, 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine has received two air-defense systems that could “shoot down anything”
There are only two systems in the world capable of bearing that moniker: the American-made Patriots and the French-made SAMP/T systems. If it was the Patriots, the entire world would have known before Zelensky made the announcement.
The two systems Zelensky spoke about must be SAMP/T.
Before the start of the war, the French Air Force had 7 systems, while the Italian Army had 3 systems. I couldn’t find details of any other nation with the SAMP/T systems.
So, if I had to guess, I would say Ukraine probably has two of these systems. Not an ample amount, but reasonable considering there were possibly just 10 systems available.
France is currently endeavoring to increase the supply of missiles for the SAMP/T systems. Constructing such complex weapon systems such as the SAMP/T in the middle of a war is impractical, and even if attempted, they won’t arrive on time. The only solution is to deploy the existing weapon systems and ensure they are fully stocked with more than enough missiles.
There are plenty of Patriot systems around the world, but unfortunately, the nations that possess them still refuse to send them to Ukraine. However, there are not enough SAMP/T systems around the world. This is a problem that France needs to address, and their solution is to provide more missiles for SAMP/T. I believe they should send two more systems and urge Thales to produce multiple systems annually.
This will take some time
France is making progress in the right direction. The French arms manufacturing industry is undergoing a necessary rebuild and reboot. It will require some time to adapt. However, I don’t anticipate that they will suffer the same fate as the European effort to boost artillery production, which failed miserably to achieve its first-year targets.
That was a collective effort by the entire bloc. Money had to be provisioned, then sent, followed by placing orders with the contractors and identifying sub-contracts. And so on and so forth. They failed gloriously to supply one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024.
France is now fully focused inward, rather than outward. Since the decision-making is coming from the top, cutting through the red tape shouldn’t be as difficult. However, these changes won’t happen overnight. It will take time.
But I am glad that we have reached this point.
It’s better to have at least one nation without an election on the horizon stepping up to the plate.
