Ukraine’s Audacity is Changing the Battlefield
They will regain the initiative
During times of war, truth is the first casualty. Any journalist who forgets that will have a difficult time holding on to their credibility. Yesterday marked a crucial moment for those who are on the right side of history.
Ukraine downed a military transport aircraft, an Ilyushin Il-76, near Belgorod. The Kremlin and the entire Russian media landscape erupted, accusing Ukrainians of killing 65 prisoners of war who were supposed to be part of a scheduled exchange on January 24th.
Ukrainian military bloggers, immediately accused the Russians of lying. I understand their reflexive reaction. Because Kremlin has a history of lying about the loss of high-value assets.
According to the Kremlin:
- The billion dollar Moskva cruiser was sunk due to “a fire of unknown origin detonated the ship’s stored ammunition and the resulting explosions left the Moskva with structural damage”.
- Wagner mercenary chief Prigozhin died because a grenade exploded in his jet.
- Ukraine did not bring down the $330 million A-50 AWACS aircraft. They themselves accidentally shot down their aircraft.
The list is a fairly long one. So, whenever something big goes down, you are conditioned to lean towards ‘Russians are lying’.
According to Ukrainian military bloggers, the transport aircraft was carrying air-defense missiles, justifying its legitimacy as a target. Russia attempted to capitalize on the situation by releasing a passenger manifesto, supposedly confirming Ukrainian POWs on board. However, the manifesto was flawed with inaccuracies, intensifying the belief that the Russians were fabricating information, as is often the case.
The prolonged exchange continued between the two sides. Instead of rushing to a conclusion, I chose to wait. Hours elapsed, with Ukrainian officials maintaining radio silence. This puzzled me, considering Ukraine’s recent agility in responding promptly to Russia’s information warfare.
This morning, I received confirmation from ISW that Ukraine is investigating the issue and cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions until an official announcement is made.
- Ukrainian Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, immediately responded to the incident by emphasizing that Ukraine is investigating the crash and urged audiences not to draw premature conclusions about the crash based on unconfirmed reporting.
- Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov confirmed that a POW exchange was scheduled to take place on January 24 but that the exchange was no longer taking place and that GUR is investigating the circumstances of the crash.
- GUR later stated that Ukraine “does not have reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the plane.
I have no idea, no clue whatsoever about what was inside the aircraft. Most probably we will never know. So, let us focus on what we do know. The Russians have confirmed to the entire world that Ukraine has brought down an Il-76 transport aircraft.
Several months back, the Russian President questioned the West, asking, “Who do you think you are?” The implication is that Russia sees itself as a formidable power, a superpower deserving respect on the global stage.
This super power is losing at least one high value aircraft since December 1, 2023. Every week. At least one aircraft. Eight weeks in a row. Against a nation without a proper airforce.
Two months, Kremlin….!
You can’t fix a glaring, gaping hole in your system. Who do you think you exactly are?
The Hits
- In December 2023, Ukraine brought down eight Russian fighter jets.
- In January 2024, Ukraine brought down one A-50 early warning aircraft and two Ilyushin transport aircrafts.
The Options
Ukraine has only two options to bring down Russian aircrafts flying more than hundred miles away from the frontline.
- A daring incursion executed by Ukraine’s airforce utilizing Soviet-era fighter jets
I am going to straight away rule out this option. The sheer number of hits — 11 in less than eight weeks is impossible to achieve using old soviet era fighter jets. If this had to be the case, Ukraine would have lost a decent number of fighter jets by this time. During this time frame, there was no available evidence indicating that Ukraine experienced the loss of any fighter jets.
2. A Patriot air-defense system operating closer to the frontline.
The American-made Patriot air defense systems boast a substantial footprint, and their size necessitates stationary deployment. If this were accurate, Russia would likely have targeted the Patriots stationed closer to the frontline. However, there is no evidence of a substantial Russian missile barrage either aimed at destroying the Patriots or attempting to compel Ukraine to relocate them away from the frontline.
This leaves only one option.
An option deemed inconceivable by the United States, NATO, and the global community at large: Ukraine is utilizing a Patriot unit, perhaps more, as a mobile air-offense asset, strategically moving it around, possibly just behind the frontline
This bold move forces the Russian airforce to exercise extreme caution within the 160 km approach to the frontline.
The Russian airforce cannot avoid it entirely as the entire occupied territory will now come under Ukrainian air-defense/offense cover. Yet, entering comes with a significant risk of their aircraft being targeted. In these circumstances, their options are limited, showcasing the audacity of Ukraine’s strategic move, leaving them with little control but to rely on blind faith and proceed with the sortie. This explains why they keep losing a high value bird every week.
So, who exactly do you think you are Kremlin?
Potential repercussions for the Russian air force and the overall air power balance in the war.
I’ve written numerous stories on Ukraine, and it’s challenging to find the one where I voiced my concerns about the Russian airforce. I expressed worry that Russia would eventually reach a stage where escalating risks might compel them to deploy their entire air force to regain control. If Putin believes he is on the brink of defeat, he would be inclined to take desperate measures, risking everything his military, airforce, and navy possess.
My risk assessment became skewed in favor of the Russian airforce when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the following in a February 2023:
We do know that Russia has a substantial number of aircraft in its inventory and a lot of capability left. That’s why we’ve emphasized that, you know, we need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defense capability as we possibly can-SEC. AUSTIN
“The fact of the matter is they have a big powerful air force” said retired Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, around the same period. Breedlove served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. These are men who think ten times before they make a public announcement.
Russian airforce still has the numbers. But those numbers will not mean anything if they do not find way to counter the challenge posed by the Ukrainian military.
Here is what the West needs to do
Ukraine is exploiting every ounce of advantage they can derive from the Patriot systems. But we are still far away from seeing the full impact of an air-defense asset being used as an air-offense asset. When a highly mobile patriot unit is coupled with squadrons of F16s, the resulting impact will be huge. It will be the kind of force multiplier that we have never witnessed before.
In February 2023, Retired Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove made a very important comment. I think if we address the weakness he pointed out, the battlefield in Ukraine will change irrevocably. He said:
We are sending them air defense capability, but we are not sending them the density of capability so as to completely deny Russia.
Ukraine has addressed the density problem by turning the Patriot into a highly mobile unit. A little extra effort from the West will help Ukraine to completely deny Russian air power.
I believe the West should contemplate supplying Ukraine with additional Patriot units in the coming six months and continue this support. Ukraine has demonstrated its effectiveness, and the Patriots offer unparalleled capabilities. Each encounter, whether a success or failure, contributes to refining the algorithm and enhancing the entire Patriot network. Incremental additions will bolster the overall strength of Ukraine’s air defense and air-offense capabilities.
And while they are at it, the West should also ask Lockheed Martin to step on Patriot missile production. They have to work 24/7/365 days. Investments must be made to increase missile production rate.
Ukraine’s audacious use of its best air-defense asset makes me rethink the statement I had made in the past. I called the Patriots a game changer. I don’t think that is the case anymore.
It is already a lot more than that.
