Ukraine’s difficult eight weeks begins
The onus continues to remain on American shoulders
It is one thing to look at all the different variables, read up on the many different stories, factor in the probabilities, and make an assessment. It is a completely different feeling when your own assessments come true, especially when it was not something that you wanted to happen deep inside.
On the 4th of April, I suggested Ukraine must “Retreat if needed” and “Defend using depth”.
They need to dig deep into their mental fortitude to absorb the Russian hits.
My reasoning: “The next eight weeks are going to be an extremely difficult period to negotiate. Russians are not going to stop until they exhaust their reserve strength. Ukraine is still short on material and manpower. Russia will keep pounding their cities, dams, and energy infrastructure to keep Ukraine’s air defenses depleted and away from the frontline”.
The most important assesment I made then was this one: “Although the Avdiivka sector continues to remain the focal point of Russia’s attention to launch waves of armored assaults, I would be surprised if the Russians stick to this area alone”.
Russians have expanded their attacks to multiple sectors. They have also advanced in certain areas. Not much. And certainly not in any areas that I had marked as highly strategic, such as Kupiansk, Klishivvka, and Vuhledar.
- They took control of Ivanivske, a settlement east of Chasiv Yar. (North)
- They advanced near Avdiivka. (Middle)
- Active fighting is going on in the Robotyne sector, though Ukrainian defenses in the area is holding up well. (South)
The Surge towards Chasiv Yar:
The target is not Chasiv Yar, but to make it extremely hard for Ukraine to defend Klishchiivka. As you can see from the image above, if Russia takes control of Chasiv Yar, they will be behind Klishivvka. At that point, Ukrainian forces in the pocket will have the Russian forces around them in three directions.
Once that happens, Russia will order daily glide bomb drops into the pocket, killing Ukrainian troops one by one and destroying all that stands above the ground and below it. Then they will ask their ground troops to move in. That is how they won Avdiivka. Sadly, it will work.
Ukraine can use Chasiv yar to buy time.
How much they will lose in the defense of Chasiv Yar? I don’t know. It will be heavy, and it will depend on how many artillery shells they have in their possession.
US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli warned on April 10 that Russian forces currently have a five-to-one artillery advantage along the frontline — a statement consistent with Ukrainian officials’ reports — but that Russian forces could have a 10-to-1 artillery advantage “in a matter of weeks” if the United States continues to delay the provision of military aid to Ukraine.
Ten to one is a danger zone. If Russia fires 10,000 shells, Ukraine can only respond with 1,000 shells. Every time Ukraine’s ability to fire back drops to 2,000 shells per day, they will have no choice but to retreat.
Russia has acquired 3,000,000 artillery shells from North Korea. To make things worse, the rumors we heard about Iran supplying missiles to Russia are true.
This is as good as fighting a bunch of terrorists holding machine guns with a pistol. You can hold them off for a bit, but the end result is not going to be pretty.
I am not surprised Putin has not touched his Iranian stockpile. Those missiles are waiting for the F16s to come through. If Ukraine inserts them into the battlefield, Russia will respond with loads of missiles to take out every possible runway from where the F16s take off.
What is the problem?
The crux of the problem is the amount of artillery shells in Ukraine’s possession. Europe, led by Czech President Petr Pavel, has raised money, and most probably they have placed the order. But those containers are not going to appear tomorrow. How long it will take? That is what the Russians are doing their very best to not figure out.
General Cavoli’s statement makes me think it is going to be at least another month before Ukraine gets its hands on those shells. And things can get into the critical stage before that happens.
So, the fix is on the way. But there is a small window of opportunity for the Russians. Putin is pressing as hard as he can to take advantage of that window.
Can’t blame him.
President Biden is utterly predictable. He is going to sit there and keep blaming MAGA Republicans for not clearing the aid, while Putin stays out there and takes full advantage of the situation created by American politics.
There are plenty of emergency powers in the President’s hands. He can declare the situation dire and, as a result, airlift 200,000 shells for Ukraine. That would be the right thing to do..
Putin is betting that he won’t do it.
The Plan
More than a good majority of Americans have no interest whatsoever in watching Putin win and spread his dictatorship around the world. Just like how more than a majority of women do not want American politicians to control their bodies. But both political parties, Democrats and Republicans, do not heed the want of the majority. They will always serve the fringe inside their camp. We are in the age of fringe first politics.
The current American administration has transitioned into an unreliable ally, and things are going south because of the differences that are emerging between the administration in Ukraine and the one in the United States. Putin, on the other hand, can rely on Iran and North Korea. The basis of that relationship is quid pro quo.
Ukraine cannot say the same about its relationship with the United States. This is not quid pro quo. It is the fight to protect shared values. A fight for freedom. To keep tyranny from spreading all over the world.
So, this hope, that President Biden will immediately airlift artillery shells and air-defense missiles to address the critical shortages in the battlefield must be one of the many plans.
The first plan must be to figure it out with Ukraine’s partners in Europe. And the same goes for air-defense missiles. Figure it out with nations inside Europe. It will be far easier to get going with European nations than trying to make American politics work.
The Biden administration is probably trying to prove a point. You did not listen to us when we told you not to attack the refiners, so we are not going to help you when you are stuck between a hard and a rock place.
I hope this is not the case, but it sure feels like one.
Take the hits Ukraine. Retreat if needed. If the U.S administration wants to help, let them. If not, please be prepared to move on.
It will be painful, but this pain is not going to last forever. Yes, there will be loss of territory over the next six to eight weeks. Air defense will be a problem as there is a reasonable chance for Russian missiles to find those Patriot systems if they run out of air defense missiles.
A Sit Down
Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Biden should meet to iron out their differences. I believe their personal rapport has suffered immensely, as their visions to end the conflict are not in alignment.
They need to fix it.
Whatever their differences may be, it is Ukraine and America that are suffering because of them.
Sit down.
Zelensky needs to fly to Washington, D.C. That would be one final effort. If nothing comes of it, then so be it. But if progress is made, it could be enough to halt the decline. If we can endure the next eight weeks, we will be in a much better position to engage in very different discussion.
Board the flight, Zelensky, and make it public. President Biden won’t refuse. Sit down with him, persuade him, or seek a middle ground. He doesn’t want Putin to prevail; that’s the last thing he desires. However, you must engage with him personally. Just you and him. Not the team.
Convince him.
Make a plan.
A wedge between America and Ukraine is exactly what the Kremlin would want. Do not give them that. It will be President Zelensky’s responsbility to pull the wedge out and bridge that gap. It is already obvious what the President of America wants. Make him that promise. Ask him for a strong air-defense network.
It will work.
It better work.
