Ukraine’s drive to produce 1 million drones in 2024
Ukraine’s defense industry is growing
On 19th December, 2023, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine will build one million drones in 2024.
“Regarding production, we will produce a million drones next year. We will make a million. We will do everything to make it so. I know that’s how it will be” — President Zelensky
I was astonished, considering the complexity of the task. It seemed almost insurmountable. However, within the first five weeks of 2024, Ukraine has made significant strides toward achieving that goal.
During Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s visit to Kyiv in the second week of January, Great Britain pledged £200 million to Ukraine for drone manufacturing. According to the British Prime Minister, this funding is part of a significant initiative aimed at swiftly acquiring and producing thousands of military drones for Ukraine, including surveillance, long-range strike, and sea drones.
Yesterday, Turkish defense firm Baykar announced that it began constructing a factory near Kyiv, set to employ approximately 500 people. The facility will produce either the TB2 or TB3 drone models, as stated by the company’s CEO to Reuters.
“Our factory is being built… we need about 12 months to finish construction and then we will move on to internal machinery, equipment, and organizational structure.
“The factory in Ukraine is a big one, we are planning to employ around 500 people,” said Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar
On the same day, February 6th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree instructing the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers and General Staff of the Armed Forces to establish a distinct branch dedicated to unmanned systems within the Ukrainian military. They are tasked with presenting proposals to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council accordingly.
A blueprint to construct one million drones. A significant funding injection from Great Britain, pledging support for drone production both within and outside Ukraine. Confirmation from a Turkish firm of the ongoing construction of a drone factory. President’s decree establishing a dedicated unit for unmanned forces. Ukraine is unmistakably advancing, recognizing this as a critical aspect of their efforts to counter invading forces.
The Importance of Drones in the War
First person view drones (FPV) have completely upended the modern battlefield. These drones are equipped with a camera that provides live video feed to a display, typically goggles or a monitor, worn by the pilot. This allows the pilot to see the drone’s perspective as if they were inside it, enabling precise control during flight.
FPV drones have rendered both Ukraine and Russia unable to fully deploy their mechanized firepower on the battlefield. Armored columns face destruction under constant surveillance by FPV drones. These unmanned aircraft have disintegrated battalions into mere remnants. This situation is poised to worsen, as drones are poised to dominate future battlefields.
Drones hold even greater significance for Ukraine since long-range, domestically manufactured drones are their sole means to target military and economic assets situated within Russia.
Ukraine cannot prevail against Russia by solely defending their positions. It’s essential to diminish Russia’s economic power to impede their war efforts. Continuous pressure must be applied to their industrial capacity to disrupt weapon manufacturing, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s battlefield prospects.
Russians are openly discussing the significance of neutralizing F16s before they can launch. Why should Ukraine merely react to Russian fighter jets after they’ve deployed their missiles? Instead, Ukraine should be proactive, strategizing ways to thwart them before they hit altitude.
I believe Ukraine’s long-range drones will be pivotal in their 2024 conflict with Russia. Establishing a production base and forming a dedicated unit within the army to maximize the use of domestically manufactured weapons will enable Ukraine to continuously innovate and swiftly implement advancements on the battlefield. They are clearly ahead of Russia in drone technology. Now they have to press the advantage.
The Path to 1 Million
Establishing these factories within Ukraine poses a challenge, given that they will likely become primary targets for Russian missiles. Unlike in previous years, Russia has adjusted its focus to primarily target Ukraine’s military assets rather than utilities. However, Ukraine likely feels confident in protecting these facilities due to the strength of its air defense systems.
Can Ukraine build one million drones?
It is a million dollar question.
It is a lot. It will be a challenging task.
Ukraine has reiterated its intention to independently build its drone manufacturing capability. Russia will target and attempt to diminish this production capacity. It’s often easier to sabotage something before it’s fully operational than after. Nonetheless, Ukraine has taken decisive steps toward realizing its goal of producing one million drones.
The importance of Ukraine building things on its own
Ukraine, as quickly as they possibly can, has to get rid of their dependency on western assistance. This would require them “to actively pursue measures aimed at domestically producing its own weapons, building bilateral and international defense industrial partnerships, and creating industrial joint ventures with Western enterprises aimed at co-producing defense materials”.
From April 2022 to July 2023, the global community repeatedly urged and negotiated with the Russian president to permit the passage of Ukrainian grains through the Black Sea. Putin would initially agree, then threaten to revoke the agreement, only to ultimately acquiesce. This maneuver enabled him to host a diverse array of leaders in Moscow.
In the second half of 2023, Ukraine, with significant support from NATO allies, adopted a proactive approach. Instead of engaging in negotiations with Putin, they neutralized the Russian Black Sea fleet by targeting a variety of communication equipment. With repeated attacks, they cornered the Black Sea Fleet and unilaterally established a corridor in the Black Sea for cargo ships departing from Ukrainian ports.
Within just six months, Ukraine has already restored its grain exports to pre-war levels.
“Ukraine’s agriculture exports from Odesa-region seaports have reached 14.3 million tons since August, when a new Black Sea shipping corridor was set up”, Bloomberg reported a few days ago.
The Kremlin often employs bullying tactics, relying on bluff and bluster to achieve its goals. Without standing up to them, one can hardly expect to be achieve any result. Ukraine is now experiencing the rewards of seizing control of its own destiny. By taking the lead and rallying allies to provide support, Ukraine has charted the most effective course forward.
Hence, the successful operation of the Black Sea Corridor. Ukraine should strive to replicate this template whenever feasible. I think they now understand the importance of taking the lead.
