Potential Strategic Shift in Ukraine’s Drone Operations

Ukraine may give up its attacks on oil refineries

In its assessment today, the Institute for the Study of War devoted a full section to an interview with Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, conducted by The Washington Post.

After achieving significant success with their drone attacks deep within Russian territory, reducing Russia’s refining capacity by more than 14% and forcing them to ban exports while importing gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan, Ukraine may consider ceasing its attacks on the refiners in the future.

From ISW

• Budanov stated in his interview with the Washington Post that the GUR plans to strike the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and critical military targets, such as airfields and command and control posts, in response to Russia’s forecasted summer 2024 offensive.
• Budanov stated that these strikes are intended to show that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the [Russian] population from the war.”
• ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian strikes against targets within Russia are an appropriate component of Ukraine’s campaign to degrade industries that support the Russian war effort and military capabilities deployed in the Russian rear

What Budanov stated in the interview, “targeting Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and critical military targets,” is not far from the recommendation made by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on April 9th:

Those (drone) attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation. Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight

The last time Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery was during their April 2nd attack on Tatarstan. Multiple drones were launched from Ukraine on April 2nd. One group found its way to the Shahed manufacturing unit in Yelabuga, while another group headed towards the Taneko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk.

On April 9th, Secretary Austin recommended Ukraine cease its attacks on the oil refineries. After that, there have been zero attacks against the refineries. The Russians have not moved any air-defense systems to protect them. To be honest, there are way too many oil facilities in western Russia to be protected. It is impractical to protect them all.

Ukraine’s drone manufacturing capacity has been increasing month by month. However, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil facilities peaked in the middle of March and then slowed down in the last week. There was one long-range hit in the first week of April, but since then, there have been no attacks.

Now, Budanov has told The Washington Post that they will strike military targets deep inside Russia. I believe it was a logical outcome of the discussions between the United States and Ukraine.

I am actually in favor of it.

I understand the logic behind attacking the refiners and reducing Russia’s economic strength. Any rise in domestic oil prices has the potential to trigger unrest. It could be helpful. But these are all extremely long roads to victory. The best path to victory is through the United States and Europe supplying the best weapons to Ukraine at the right time.

If the Biden administration is ready to supply Ukraine with the right weapons and help in the fight for freedom, there would be no need to target Russia’s oil facilities. Those drones could be redirected to the airfields and defense manufacturing facilities spread all over Russia

The key for Ukraine from here on out will be to ensure alignment with the United States and Europe to achieve victory. Yes, it will be a huge challenge to navigate, but they need to figure it out somehow. Everyone — Ukraine, France, Germany, the United States, the Baltics, Poland, and others — has an opinion on how to wage the war and how the allies need to proceed.

Consensus is unlikely to occur.

Consequently, the major players will attempt to control the situation. It will be Ukraine’s responsibility to find that common ground and bring everyone together. It’s worth noting that the French President did not actively participate for two years. Now, we have someone who may not have the same level of apprehension as Biden and Scholz but possesses the stature to make a compelling argument.

So, that is one aspect favoring Ukraine, something they haven’t had for a long time. They need to rally around him and perhaps even delegate the diplomatic heavy lifting to him.

It’s worth a try.

Macron has taken some steps in this direction. He has toned down his rhetoric and is not targeting the German administration. From criticising Germany for saying “no tanks, no jets,” he is now saying that everyone in Europe is assisting Ukraine to the best of their capabilities.

Macron’s recent statement reflects this change in tone:

• “In order to help Ukraine defend itself, we have to do several things: first of all, we have to have these batteries, medium and long-range missiles to neutralise the reserves on Ukrainian soil and the starting points of these attacks, and also air-to-air defence systems.
• Germany has more Patriot systems and so they have delivered a third one. This is a very important decision and I thank Germany and the Chancellor for it.
• [The Patriot] is a system that is much more shared by the allies, and therefore, there is depth to provide missiles that are compatible with this system.
• France and Italy have another system — SAMP/T — which is used by fewer [operators]. There is less depth of missile supply, the content of our specifics and we use differently.
• France, which has the nuclear deterrent, has far fewer systems available for itself. We have systems to secure our nuclear strongholds on French soil.
• We have deployed what we could in Ukraine [and] Romania. We have deployed more Crotale and continue to work on that system. Conversely, we have a missile system (SCALP-EG) [for deep strikes] to complement the British Storm Shadow.
• We delivered [the SCALPs] while Germany could not deliver the Taurus for tactical [and] political reasons. This is where Europe is useful [because] we complement each other. Germany supplies what it is most capable of, and we supply what we are most capable of”.

I do feel that Macron wants to be in the middle and convince the allies to keep moving in one direction. It is well worth the try to keep him in that space. It is always a good idea to give the job to someone who wants it

Will the Biden admininstration move fast after the congress clears the Ukraine aid?

I hope they do.

They publicly asked Ukraine to change its drone strike pattern. Ukraine has responded by staying away from the refiners. Now it will be their turn to return the favor and be a supportive ally.

I have repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for not having any plan to defeat Russia. If I were to go to their side and make an argument, then it would be that they did not have the resources required to make a plan. They could easily say: We did not have any money appropriated by the Congress. As a result, we had no clarity on how much resources we could get and when. Due to this, we had no room to make any plans.

OK.

The Ukraine aid bill will clear the Congress on Saturday and then proceed to the Senate. It is expected to reach the President’s desk sometime this month.

So, no more excuses.

Now, they will have clear visibility into the amount of money they are going to have. They need to sit down with the allies and map out the whole plan down to the last detail.

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