Ukraine’s drone production capacity is bad news for the Kremlin.
4 million and counting
Speaking at the Defense Industries Forum in Kyiv on September 29th, President Zelensky made a series of announcements. He discussed increasing production of “Bohdana” howitzers to 15 per month, Ukraine’s steadily growing missile program, and building facilities to repair Western infantry fighting vehicles.
It was all very interesting, as a strong Ukraine serves as a protective shield for the entire eastern front, from Finland all the way down to Turkey. But my eyes quickly zeroed in on one particular stat.
The total number of drones we are now capable of producing annually in Ukraine is 4 million, with more than 1.5 million already contracted — President Zelensky
After watching Putin speak at international forums and in the media for several years, you develop an innate sense of distrust for anything that comes out of a politician’s mouth, prompting the need for corroborative evidence before accepting any explanation.
Ukraine remains extremely dependent on Western leaders for support. For Zelensky to give exaggerated information would be detrimental to the trust he is trying so hard to build. They still don’t have the fighter jets they need, and clearance for long-range weapons is yet to come. They will continue to rely heavily on the West for data, satellite imagery, and similar resources to identify targets.
Therefore, coming out with exaggerated claims, like the Kremlin often does, is not in Ukraine’s best interest.
Ukraine is either at, or very close to, hitting the number President Zelensky mentioned. They are manufacturing 4 million drones. However, what we do not know is the distribution of those drones by range. How many are first-person view (FPV) drones that can travel a few kilometers or up to a few tens of kilometers? How many are mid-range drones? How many are long-range drones? Each type is crucial, as it makes a significant difference to their combat power.
We will most likely never have access to that data, and for good reasons. Still, going from zero drones in 2022 to 4 million in just three years — during the middle of a war — is a breathtaking achievement. An achievement that is already delivering significant results on the battlefield.
After analyzing Ukraine’s targeted hits on four large Russian ammunition depots, the open-source community has concluded that long-range Ukrainian drones caused the damage, partly aided by the Russian practice of storing ammunition under open skies. More than 30,000 tons of Russian ammo has been destroyed.
A significant portion of this destroyed arsenal was imported from North Korea and Iran. Even if Ukraine used 300 long-range drones, the cost-benefit ratio is overwhelmingly in Ukraine’s favor. A few million dollars’ worth of drones have destroyed billions of dollars’ worth of Russian ammunition.
“There is no clearer example than the development and employment of uncrewed systems, where low-cost solutions are increasingly defeating more advanced capabilities and delivering disproportionate impact on the battlefield,” said James Cartlidge, Minister for Defence Procurement in the United Kingdom.
As a country struggling for money and weapons, Ukraine must seize any opportunity to turn the tables on Russia and build cost-effective solutions to the challenges of war. I believe they have done just that.
However, 4 million drones sounds like a lot, doesn’t it? Actually, it’s not. It averages out to just over 10,000 drones per day. Late last year, Ukrainian officials announced they were targeting the production of 1 million drones over the following year. If that was their initial projection, how could they have managed to hit a fourfold increase?
On February 14th, 2024, Latvia and the United Kingdom announced the creation of a drone coalition. Off the bat, the U.K. committed £200 million to manufacturing drones. Over time, 14 nations joined the coalition, collectively bringing the investment to $600 million to support Ukraine’s manufacturing capacity.
“The caveat in this goal is to specify that while, yes, quantity is important, so is providing quality systems — so with this number we aren’t only talking about providing one type of drone but the full spectrum of them, including electronic warfare and counter capabilities,” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said at the time.
The drone coalition announced that their goal is to deliver 1 million drones to Ukraine. I believe part of these 1 million drones were manufactured in Ukraine, while the rest were produced by donor nations. In addition to the assistance from Western allies, Ukraine has also supported its own drone production programs through crowdfunding, sometimes referring to these efforts as “dronations.”
Ukraine was building its capacity independently, and then Latvia and the U.K. stepped in to provide a significant boost. Soon after, more nations joined the effort. So, if we consider Ukraine’s claim that it was on its way to producing 1 million drones in the second half of last year, and the drone coalition’s promise of another million, Ukraine had a clear path to 2 million drones.
That’s the power of scale, isn’t it? Once you hit economies of scale, production can be ramped up. I believe Ukraine could have easily positioned itself to build 2 to 4 million drones per year. This increase in capacity would serve as a huge deterrent to Russian forces.
This is where the American decision at the end of September to open up the weapons pipeline becomes crucial. Ukraine has the drones, but where they will need further support from Western partners is in electronic warfare. This will help Ukraine counter Russian drones effectively.
An emerging challenge of counter-drone defense is the need to develop and employ a system that is cheaper than its target. Crucially, smaller drones that can swarm toward a target are more difficult to shoot down. as they can overwhelm air defense systems. A key countermeasure has been to utilize electronic warfare in the form of jammers, spoofers, and high-energy lasers that prevent drones from reaching their target. Jammers — used by both Russia and Ukraine — send out powerful electromagnetic signals that can cause a target drone to fall to the ground, veer off course, or turn around and attack its operator.
The Russians have a wide range of Electronic Warfare (EW) systems deployed across their brigades. Before the war, they had dedicated EW brigades, although I’m not sure if they still maintain that structure. Regardless, Russia does have significant EW capabilities, and this is something Ukraine cannot build on its own. They will need Western support, and the United States can assist in developing dedicated EW brigades for Ukraine.
Expanding Ukraine’s EW capabilities would be a critical asset on the battlefield. Once Ukraine acquires more EW systems — they do have some already — they can deploy them before advancing into a section, disabling Russian drones. After neutralizing the drones, Ukraine can deploy its own drones to target enemy positions. Then artillery can be brought in, followed by ground forces moving in. It’s a step-by-step process, but any counterattack must start with electronic warfare.
Let’s hope the United States begins building Ukraine’s EW capacity. This would act as a force multiplier for Ukraine’s growing drone production capacity.
Thanks for reading. The mainstream media seems clueless and perhaps uninterested. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 290 stories available to the public in 2024, inlcuding this one.
