Ukraine’s Drone Sanctions Bite the Kremlin
We are at the initial phase of this unfolding development.
Relentless.
That is the apt term to characterize Ukraine’s sustained long-range drone assaults on economic assets within Russia. It’s an “almost” right before relentless, as Ukraine is still in the early stages of making a significant impact on the Russian war machine with these attacks.
Within the recent two weeks, Ukraine launched assaults on a minimum of four Russian refineries situated in Western Russia, leaving a noticeable impact in their wake. On February 1, the Russian Ministry of Energy said Russia has reduced gasoline and diesel exports to non-CIS countries by 37% and 23% respectively in January y/y, to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries. Exports of naphtha was reduced by 127,500 to 136,000 barrels per day.
Data collected by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace shows “there are a total of eighteen Russian refineries with a combined capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day (more than half the Russian total) that are possible targets” for Ukrainian drones.
However, it’s worth noting that none of the attacks thus far have succeeded in entirely obliterating a Russian refinery. Ukrainian long-range drones have their limitations — they are effective in causing disruption but lack the strength to induce complete destruction.
Sergey Vakulenko, formerly the head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft and currently a writer for Carnegie Endowment, acknowledges that Ukraine has the potential to create significant challenges. However, he cautions against harboring overly optimistic expectations:
“In the mind of a non-expert, a refinery full of highly flammable liquids can easily turn into a huge fireball. The reality is different. Russian construction codes — a relic of the Cold War — make refineries resilient against traditional air bombing. And they usually have plenty of firefighting equipment available. This means drones cannot destroy a whole refinery. They can, however, create a fire. And if they are lucky, managing to hit a gas fractionation unit, they may even be able to cause a bigger explosion”.
This is more or less the scenario unfolding after Ukraine’s almost constant attacks in the last two weeks. Drones penetrated Russian refineries, sparking fires that were swiftly extinguished. As a consequence, production had to be temporarily halted, and repair work is now in progress. On January 27th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said “repair work on Lukoil’s NORSI oil refinery will take at least a month or a month and a half”.
The likelihood of these attacks persisting is high, given Ukraine’s robust drone manufacturing capabilities. During a recent visit by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to Ukraine, both nations agreed to collaborate on drone production. The agreement encompasses the manufacturing of long-range drones, with an infusion of 200 million pounds to expedite production.
However, I doubt that these attacks will escalate to a degree where they can directly trigger an economic collapse or halt the Russian war machine. When necessary, Putin is likely to adjust by cutting budget allocations from other sectors and redirecting them to the war effort. If there’s a shortfall of XX million for the war machine in March 2024, he might order a reduction in the state’s healthcare budget by the same amount.
A grandma who died due to the shutdown of ICU units in a distant part of Russia is unlikely to draw attention. Even if it does, Putin could easily label her as a war hero who sacrificed her life for the nation. In the event that any of her sons voice dissent, they could face imprisonment, property freezing, passport cancellations, or even be ordered to join the frontline. Putin possesses a range of tools to maintain control over the subjugated society.
We are just getting started on a back and forth
How Russia responds to these attacks will be vital. Russians did the same to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure last year. Ukraine had to keep its head down and keep fixing it. They sought a lot of help from Western nations to repair the transformers, substations, and other utilities Russians kept breaking into.
Russia will struggle to find replacement for broken components. But you can never rule out the fact that they will happily rip them off from a civilian utility to keep their oil facilities running.
Ukraine has a thrown a challenge.
Russia definitely feels the bite.
It will be up for them to find a way to respond.
One more redline goes for a toss
A prolonged drone campaign targeting Russian oil and gas assets will further strain the Russian economy. Every penny that can be diverted away from the Russian war machine must be extracted. Ukraine should have initiated this strategy long ago, but reaching this point proved to be a formidable struggle.
Ultimately, Ukraine depends on its western partners for survival, sustenance, and persistence in the war. The West serves as both Ukraine’s strength and a significant vulnerability. Managing the relationship with the West is crucial. It’s not as simple as picking up the phone and asking Western leaders to let go of their apprehensions. Building trust and instilling confidence take considerable time and effort.
On May 30, 2023, Moscow experienced its first encounter with Ukrainian drones, marking a year and a half into the war. It took Ukraine that long to launch an attack inside Russia. Even after the incident, Ukraine declined to claim responsibility, suggesting that it was orchestrated by Russian separatists.
That’s how intense the pressure was on their shoulders to refrain from attacking inside Russia. Restraining the war within Ukraine is a significant mistake. Why should Russia dictate where, when, and under what conditions the war unfolds? Ukraine didn’t invade Russia; it was Russia that invaded Ukraine. Yet, we imposed rules, regulations, and a code of conduct on the victim while showing deference to the aggressor’s redlines.
You cannot win by playing only defense.
After almost six months of regular attacks inside Russia, the western world has come to terms with Ukraine’s decision to expand the boundaries of the war Russia started. Initially it was Moscow high rise buildings. Now it has expanded to include Russian oil and gas refineries.
One more redline has been quietly erased.
