Ukraine’s Drones Have a Mothership

Russians Are About to Face Significant Trouble in Kherson Oblast

Image Credit: German Based Global Democracy Activist Tendar

My jaw dropped.

Actually, that might be an understatement.

When reports started trickling in about Ukrainian drones flying out of a mothership in the Black Sea to strike some of Russia’s ridiculously expensive air-defense assets in southern Kherson, I was torn — desperately wanting to believe it, yet almost unable to wrap my head around it.

Because if it were true, it changed everything. Not just for the Russia-Ukraine war, but far beyond.

By the end of December 2024, Ukraine’s naval drones, armed with R-73 missiles, had reportedly taken down two Russian helicopters transporting crew members in the region. According to Russian ultranationalists, it was the largest single-day loss of Russian Air Force personnel since the invasion began. An estimated 16 to 32 crew members were killed in the attack.

The way Russian ultranationalists lamented the incident made me wonder: were a significant number of those aboard the helicopters experienced Russian pilots? There’s no way to know.

Now, let’s put these two datapoints together:

1. Ukraine’s naval drones can successfully engage Russian helicopters — and win.
2. Ukraine can conduct deep-sea missions using a mothership capable of deploying drones into enemy territory to target air-defense systems and other Russian military assets.

Ukraine now has an unmanned naval force — or should I call it a miniature navy?

The kamikaze naval drones, packed with explosives and designed to directly strike and destroy enemy ships, have made it nearly impossible for the Russian navy to patrol the western Black Sea. They don’t even bother sending out patrol ships into the area anymore.

Helicopters were the only option Russians had to patrol vulnerable coastal areas in western Crimea. Now, Ukraine can take them on with naval drones. They can also eliminate patrol boats using kamikaze naval drones and launch attack drones from motherships to target military assets.

How far these naval drones can travel remains a closely guarded secret. However, Ukrainian drones have already reached the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk — a base located on the eastern edge of the Black Sea, over 600 kilometers from Ukrainian shores.

The Ukrainian naval drone that struck the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak carried a 450kg (992lb) payload of dynamite when it hit. The technology and hardware for deep-sea naval missions have been in place since 2023. Now, Ukraine has layered countless innovations on top of this capability.

This range — and the advanced tech — puts Russian rear positions in Kherson Oblast under significant pressure. For obvious reasons, the Russians would have stationed their air-defense assets and missile launchers in southern Kherson.

If Ukraine can use its unmanned naval force to target Russian air-defense assets in the rear of Kherson Oblast, it can quickly erode Russia’s air-defense coverage in the sector — and do so in a cost-effective manner. One ATACMS missile costs between $1 million and $1.7 million, while the Sea Baby drone that visited Novorossiysk port costs less than $240k. It’s also a homemade weapon, meaning Ukraine doesn’t need to ask the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum for permission regarding the protection of its sovereignty.

If Ukraine begins to erode Russia’s air-defense coverage in Kherson Oblast, which seems increasingly likely with the tech at their disposal, they will open the path for French Mirage jets to take on the Russian forces in the region. The French Mirages are expected to arrive this month, and rumors suggest that around 26 units will be delivered — a massive boost for the Ukrainian military. With F-16s playing a defensive role in the rear, primarily supporting long-range air-defense units to intercept Russian missiles, the Mirages could become the primary frontline attack weapon.

Ukraine now has the pieces in place to take on Russian forces in Kherson Oblast. This has the potential to change the war.

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.