Ukraine’s Manpower is Rising
Phew…That took a while.
There aren’t many things that I can sit here and criticize about the Ukrainian armed forces. Under pressure, outgunned, and outmanned by Russian forces during many intervals in this two-and-a-half-year conflict, Ukraine has somehow managed to find a way out every time they got stuck.
There were many such moments: the tanks and jets vs. lone raiders fight in the early days of the war, the mini battle in the Hostomel airport that set the course of the war before it even began, and the refusal to give up when the Russians brought destruction during the 2022–2023 winter. Then there was the demoralizing loss of Avdiivka and the subsequent rise.
So many times they got punched, but somehow they figured out a way to rise up and punch back. The Western world indeed has a lot to be blamed for in the current state of war, but Ukraine has to solely own the burden of not realizing the importance of having more than enough soldiers.
As a result, becoming a soldier almost became a never-ending contract for many. There weren’t enough in the pipeline, so what do you do? You just keep the veterans in the dugout for however long it takes.
It was madness. It was wrong. It was a bad bad decision.
Ukraine signed off on the mobilization law in April. They opened more than 27 recruitment centers around the country and made public plea to Ukrainians who fled to foreign countries to return. Thanks to the new mobilization law, around 1.5 million men have updated their credentials in the new online system that will underpin Ukraine’s recruitment efforts in the future.
The pain is slowly starting to bear fruit. Finally, the first piece of good news has trickled out. The Institute for the Study of War reported the following a few days ago:
- Ukrainian field commanders are reportedly compensating for training difficulties that mobilization has exacerbated by training new personnel on the frontline.
- Ukrainian field commanders told the Washington Post that they have devoted significant time to teaching basic skills to newly-redeployed personnel because they do not learn these skills at training centers.
- The Washington Post reported on June 2 that Ukrainian soldiers who had served in the rear also lack adequate skills upon arrival at the front even though many had been serving in the military prior to the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
- The problems the Washington Post identified are not surprising in these circumstances. Most of the Ukrainian forces on the frontline have been fighting for more than two years and are exhausted, so Ukraine is under pressure to speedily rotate them with fresh forces and replace losses to maintain its defense.
- There is a difficult tradeoff to make between pulling experienced soldiers from the frontline to train new personnel or accepting bottlenecks in training the new personnel. One Ukrainian officer reportedly told the Washington Post that Ukraine needs NATO instructors to train new personnel and to halve training times to one month.
- Russian rear-area strike campaigns against even the westernmost regions of Ukraine have ensured that Ukraine has effectively no safe rear area in which it can safely train personnel, and sending personnel to train in NATO states — such as the ongoing UK-led Operation Interflex training program — both removes Ukrainian field commanders from the training process and increases the delay in deploying soldiers as Ukraine must transport these personnel to and from NATO states.
- Ukraine will not resolve these issues quickly, and the average overall quality of Ukrainian forces on the frontline will likely decrease as experienced personnel rotate out and newly-deployed personnel reach the frontline even as the number of available soldiers increases. New soldiers will likely learn rapidly as they fight alongside experienced veterans, however.
Ukraine has mobilized enough soldiers that they are feeling the pressure on the training front.
Can Ukraine Continue its Training Programme Overseas?
Due to the lack of sufficient air defense units and the limited safe locations within Ukraine, given the reach of Russian missiles, training sites inside the borders would remain exposed to potential attacks.
Ukraine will and should continue its training programs in foreign locations.
Given the dynamics of this war, where both sides are deploying hundreds of soldiers daily to the frontline, Ukraine must initiate large-scale training within the country. Time is a luxury Ukraine cannot afford.
If executed effectively, I do not expect this war to extend beyond six months from this point. For Ukraine to deliver a decisive blow to the Russian army, it needs to conduct training programs within its borders. This approach shortens the timeline, reduces costs, albeit with increased risks.
Yet, it is a risk worth taking.
Highly specialized training programs can continue in overseas locations, but the more basic ones must be brought inside Ukraine.
Western Experts Will be Deployed to Train Ukrainians in Ukraine
I think this will be the first area where the allies will directly step in. A few days ago, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrski formally invited French experts to come to Ukraine and train their troops.
It was a political exercise, where the commander made the invite, and then France signed the formal agreements. The allies want to maintain the position that they are there on invitation, not like the invaders.
I am all for it.
As much as we respect Winston Churchill for his resoluteness and clarity of thoughts, very little is written and spoken about the man’s ability to counter propaganda. Why did he ask journalists to board the first ships that sailed from the United Kingdom to the Soviet Union?
The British wartime poster you see below about the Arctic convoys happened because Churchill wanted it to happen.
The Arctic convoy was one of the most perilous journeys undertaken by the allies to help the Soviet Union, which was on the verge of being rolled over by the Nazis. Had he not done that, today the liar in chief of the Kremlin would have come out and said, the Arctic Convoy is the West’s figment of imagination and that it never happened.
Churchill understood the importance of keeping the people of the country in his corner. He probably knew the Soviets well.
You should always keep your people informed. Tiny little details matter.
That is what France did, with Ukraine.
They have let the world know, a very important detail: that France will commence training for Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine. That sets the stage for others to follow in France’s footsteps, which I am pretty sure they will. I think the Baltics and Poland will soon join French experts on the ground. Great Britain? Most probably after the elections.
Why is it important for Ukraine to mobilize? Are they planning to fight man to man with Russia?
The reason is simple: They want to win.
Due to dwindling heavy weapons and armored vehicles, Russians are on a relentless manpower ramp. That is the only way they feel they will be able to sustain their war machine. Can’t find fault with that ideology. You make up with what you have. An enslaved Russian society is the only thing they have. It is not an infinite resource, but at the moment and for the duration they need, for a short burst, it will work. It will hurt the economy, but that brick will come for their head tomorrow, not today. So, they are taking care of today by risking tomorrow.
The best bet for Ukraine would have been to keep their lean and mean force idea. But doing that places a lot of dependency on Western partners. A lean force can be mean….. only when they are fully equipped.
They do not have partners who are ready to fully trust them. That lack of trust, for whatever reason it exists, has never gone. To this day, Ukraine has not flouted the rules imposed by the United States and the code of conduct document the National Security team led by Mr. Jake Sullivan imposes on them. Even Great Britain has not given permission to Ukraine to use their long-range Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets inside Russia.
Little by little, the red lines are fading away. But we are talking about red lines, two and a half years into the war. So, how long are they supposed to keep waiting for their partners to trust them?
They should not keep waiting.
Which means they need to de-risk. Which means the lean and mean force idea will not work. That is one of the reasons why they need more troops.
And it will also help.
It is madness to keep your war veterans fighting all the time. If you want quality, then your troops must be given enough rest. You need to keep rotating the troops. How are you going to get into that position, the ability to rotate troops, without worrying about the quality of response?
There is only one answer: You need a good amount of reserves.
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