United States Erases the Crimea Redline
A huge moment for Ukraine’s path to freedom
“Ukrainian forces will be able to use a newly delivered, coveted long-range missile system to more effectively target Russian forces in occupied Crimea”, senior Pentagon officials told New York Times on Thursday.
I understand it might be somewhat frustrating to even consider discussing this. The American administration, leveraging its position as the leader of the free world and the de facto marshal of NATO forces, persuaded Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons, decommission its long-range bombers, and essentially disarm itself in 1994.
A promise to safeguard their sovereignty was made through the Budapest Memorandum. Russia violated that agreement by invading and annexing Crimea in 2014. However, the guarantor of the contract, the United States of America, took two full years to publicly declare that a sovereign territory of Ukraine, illegally occupied by Russia, falls within the scope of war.
Ukraine has utilized American weaponry to strike the Russian-occupied territory, notably with the use of ATACMS. On 17th October 2023, after the United States reportedly supplied 20 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, they “struck two separate airfields in Russian-occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk.”
It was a massive success.
With the investment of six ATACMS missiles, Ukraine exacted a significant toll on the Russians. According to the satellite imagery viewed by the International Institute for Strategic Studies at least “17 helicopters, including multiple Kamov Ka-52 Hokum attack helicopters, were likely damaged or destroyed” due to the attack.
Ukraine utilized the ATACMS to strike Russian troops in the port city of Berdiansk this week, following the obliteration of the Russian airfield in Dzhankoi, Crimea, last week.
As far as I’m aware, the strike on the Dzhankoi airfield in Crimea last week marked the first instance of Ukraine employing an American weapon to destroy a Russian asset in Crimea. It came as a mild surprise.
The attack occurred on April 17th, 2024, almost a week before the Ukraine aid bill was cleared by the United States. Consequently, it was very difficult to determine if the Dzhankoi strike had the blessings from the Pentagon. Anticipating the conditions the U.S. national security team would impose on the Ukrainians regarding the use of long-range missiles was even more challenging.
However, it is now evident that when Ukraine received the 20 ATACMS missiles in October last year, there were stipulations asking Ukraine not to target Crimea. Otherwise, Ukraine would have targeted the Dzahnkoi airfield a long time ago. The airfield held significant importance, hosting multiple Russian air-defense systems, including S400s and S300s.
It’s plausible that the United States either did not provide ATACMS with the range to reach Crimea until now, or they supplied weapons with that range but requested Ukraine to refrain from targeting Crimea. But what distinction does it make? Both decisions yield the same outcome, don’t they? Crimea, the sovereign territory of Ukraine, remained well beyond Ukraine’s reach, according to the American administration.
This was a significant mistake by the Biden administration. By signaling that Putin can expect to retain Crimea, it perpetuates the notion that he can continue to assert dominance over Ukraine, by controlling the Black Sea. If Crimea remains in Putin’s grasp after the conflict ends, he will retain the option to invade Ukraine again in the future. However, if Crimea is lost, it signifies the end of his imperial ambitions. Whoever succeeds Putin in the Russian leadership will face the same reality: no more imperialism.
I’m pleased to inform you that the Biden administration has altered its stance. They have granted Ukraine permission to target Crimea. Ukraine has received ATACMS missiles with a range of 190 miles (300 km).
The goal for the new longer-range systems is to put more pressure on Crimea, a hub of Russian air and ground forces, “where, right now, Russia has had relatively safe haven,” a senior defense official told reporters during a news briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday.
As evident from the image below, the United States has extended Ukraine’s firing range to encompass the entirety of Crimea.
Until now, Ukraine lacked this range capability. The only weapon systems in their possession capable of reaching all of Crimea were the British Storm Shadow and French SCALP missiles. However, Ukraine could only deploy them from fighter jets, specifically old Soviet-era aircraft.
Ukraine can launch ATACMS missiles from the ground using HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) or M270 (Multiple Launch Rocket System). Ukraine has demonstrated exceptional proficiency in managing both the HIMARS and M270 systems. Despite being engaged in the battlefield for two years, these sought-after systems remain beyond the reach of the Russians.
Open-source investigators, Oryx, have documented the loss of 1 HIMARS system and 1 MRLS system. Ukrainians are adept at utilizing these systems, and they possess the knowledge to safeguard them from Russian interference.
From an operational perspective, this development is highly advantageous for Ukraine. The ATACMS’ range enables Ukraine to target every corner of the occupied territory, rendering it impossible for the Russians to designate any area as a safe haven for storing their weapons. Moreover, given the weakened state of their air-defense system, the Russians will struggle to impede Ukraine’s destruction of their assets at a rapid pace.
From a strategic standpoint, this development is highly advantageous for Ukraine because the United States has communicated to the Kremlin that Crimea is no longer off-limits. This action signifies the removal of another American redline. It is no longer tenable to permit Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike inside Crimea while simultaneously asking Ukraine not to advance into Crimea when the time comes.
Not going to happen.
That redline is done.
Over.
How does this affect Kremlin’s Calculus
The strategic silence maintained by the United States for two long years regarding their stance on Crimea granted Putin significant latitude. This silence prevented Ukraine from prioritizing the restoration of its 1991 borders as a crucial victory criterion. The United States continues to grapple with articulating its objectives clearly: whether it seeks Ukraine to advance and defeat the Russian army or solely defend against Russian attacks.
There remains a significant lack of clarity on these matters, which serves as a substantial source of fuel for Putin’s prosecution of the war. Additionally, the United States has been ambiguous regarding the status of Crimea, and to some degree, they still are: Can anyone from the Pentagon or the United States’ national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, explicitly state that Ukraine should liberate Crimea?
They will deflect. They will not answer.
However, the decision to provide ATACMS capable of reaching every inch of occupied territory represents a monumental step in the right direction. Gradually, the notion that Ukraine should liberate Crimea is gaining acceptance.
Russians are in a meltdown over the ATACMS
The Russian troll factory is operating at full capacity, disseminating the message that American aid will have little impact. One supporter told me that American support wouldn’t even make a pinprick, while another suggested it would only result in more Ukrainian casualties. It felt like I was talking with that billionaire subsidy king. These Russian trolls consistently employ the same talking points, emphasizing Ukrainian deaths as if they are the saviors, while conveniently sidestepping discussions about the hundreds of thousands of Russians who senselessly perish in a war initiated by Russia.
Anyway, the trolls are attempting to convey to both Russians and us that American aid will not significantly impact the situation. However, Russia’s recent actions indicate their alarm over these developments. State media has entered a partial meltdown, and now the Russian armed forces seem to be hitting the partial panic button.
Russia attacked railway facilities in three different regions across Ukraine on Thursday night and Friday morning, as the Russian defense minister vowed to step up strikes aimed at slowing the flow of critically needed American weapons and equipment to the front.
At least six civilians were killed and 31 others wounded in the attacks, according to the Ukrainian military and local officials. Three of the dead were railway workers killed by a strike in the Donetsk region. In Balakliya, a rail hub in the Kharkiv region, 13 passengers on a regional train were injured when a missile hit the station. Russia also attacked a railway facility in the Cherkasy region, but no casualties were reported.
“We will increase the intensity of strikes on logistics centers and storage bases of Western weapons,” Russian Defense minister Sergei Shoigu said this week.
I completely understand the Russian perspective.
For two years, they barely touched the HIMARS systems provided by the United States. Ukraine has become adept at concealing these coveted systems from Russian detection. They safeguarded them even during periods of severe ammunition shortages.
The Russians are unable to defend themselves against the ATACMS because their air-defense capabilities in occupied territory are extremely weak. Consequently, they cannot intercept the missiles after launch or eliminate the launchers before firing. Their only recourse is to intercept the missiles before they reach their launchers or while they are in storage warehouses.
That is what they are doing now.
Not going to work.
Ukraine doesn’t necessarily have to store all the ATACMS within its borders; they can relocate them as needed. There are numerous strategies to keep the ATACMS out of reach for the Russians.
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