United States is gearing up to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine
It will enable Ukraine to regain the upper-hand
US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner, in an interview with CBS News, stated that long-range ATACMS missiles will be included in the next aid package for Ukraine, contingent upon the Senate’s approval of the Ukraine aid bill and the President signing it into law.
I have absolute confidence in the bill’s fate from this point forward. While there was a slight unease when it was brought to a vote in Congress on Saturday, that feeling has dissipated. The previous version of the Ukraine aid bill passed the Senate with 70 votes. I am somewhat uncertain whether that number will remain at its elevated level, increase further, or decrease slightly.
The bill presented in Congress explicitly calls on the Biden administration to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. If we were to rewind to March 21, 2023, a group of high-ranking Congressional members wrote to the Biden administration, urging them to provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
What they wrote in that letter almost a year ago remains as relevant today as it was then.
We remain deeply disappointed in your administration’s reluctance to provide Ukraine with the right type and amount of long-range fires and maneuver capability to create and exploit operational breakthroughs against the RussiansSadly, the immediate consequences of denying DPICM and other items in a timely manner to the Ukrainian Armed Forces are playing out on the battlefield in Bakhmut and elsewhere in Ukraine today.
Providing DPICM will allow Ukraine to compensate for Russia’s quantitative advantage in both personnel and artillery rounds, and will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to concentrate their use of unitary warheads against higher-value Russian targets.
No individual munition or system will prove to be the key to restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity. However, we believe that DPICM could help fill a key gap for Ukraine’s military, and, in concert with other provided capabilities, continue to push Putin’s forces out of Ukraine.
Yes…
ATACMS will fill a crucial gap for Ukraine’s military.
Without long-range ground-fired weapons, the Russians can securely store their military assets in the rear of the battlefield. Although Ukraine possesses British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles, they can only be launched from fighter jets and are not ideal for targeting dispersed military assets such as airfields or trench lines.
There are various types of ATACMS missiles available, each with specific capabilities and purposes:
It is a highly versatile weapon that can be fired from the highly mobile HIMARS system. However, the biggest advantage lies in the fact that the United States possesses nearly “three million of these rounds in its inventory, with much of it located on U.S. and allied bases in Europe”.
Each ATACMS missile can cost several hundred thousand to over a million dollars, but they are not excessively expensive. With plenty of them in storage, the Pentagon will soon secure the necessary funding to ship them in high quantities to Ukraine.
Ukraine possesses a good number of HIMARS units capable of firing them. America can compensate for the six-month delay in aid by swiftly moving resources en masse to the frontline.
The sooner these weapons make their way to the frontline, the greater their impact will be. According to a report released today by the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces may face “additional setbacks in the coming weeks while awaiting US security assistance that will enable Ukraine to stabilize the front”.
This is the current reality at the frontline.
The Russians maintain the initiative on the battlefield, compelling the Ukrainians to react to their maneuvers. Russian forces are actively probing for weaknesses across the frontline. Now that they are aware that U.S. Congress has released the funding bill, they have a very small window of opportunity to exploit any vulnerabilities and concentrate their efforts in those sectors.
They would likely hope that the United States repeats the old mistake of providing insufficient support to Ukraine. This is where the Pentagon must exercise caution. If they make that mistake and begin rationing resources, the next eight weeks could remain an extremely challenging period for Ukraine to navigate.
However, if they step up and supply large quantities of ATACMS missiles, Bradleys, and artillery shells, Ukraine could potentially reverse the situation and gain the upper hand against the Russians before they launch their planned June counteroffensive.
Predicting how things will unfold over the next eight weeks is extremely challenging. Much will hinge on the volume of shipments and the timely delivery of supplies.
The current state of the war is not primarily due to financial constraints. The core issue has been the reluctance to provide Ukraine with high-end weapons. After two years of conflict, Ukraine is finally poised to receive the two key assets it has long sought: ATACMS missiles and fighter jets.
After Congress delivered the aid bill, some readers had questions, and I’d like to address them here.
Will this be enough for a win?
It depends on the actions taken by the Biden administration and the timing of those actions. With $60 billion, Ukraine could potentially win this war. They can win with a lot less than $60 billion: with seven Patriot systems, one thousand Patriot interceptors, one thousand ATACMS missiles, few hundred Bradleys and two million artillery shells
Total cost = Cost of Patriot systems + Cost of Patriot interceptors + Cost of ATACMS missiles + Cost of Bradleys + Cost of Artillery Shells
Total cost = $7 billion + $3 billion + $1 billion + $700 million + $3 billion
Total cost ≈ $15 billion USD
What occurs when you send them all in one month will never be equivalent to what occurs when you send them all in one year. That’s the issue. Costs decrease when items are massed, but they rise when spread out over time.
Ukraine’s path to victory is not solely determined by the size of the aid package but by the type of weapons they receive: When, how much, and what they receive. This underscores the importance of diplomatic maneuvering in the coming weeks. The Biden administration, high-ranking congressional members, the US intelligence community, and Ukrainian officials must collaborate to strategize effectively.
It is evident that they have never discussed how to defeat the Russian forces. Both Ukraine and the United States have not been aligned against the common enemy. This issue needs to be addressed. Now is the time to find common ground and move forward together.
Will Europe go back to sleep?
They better not. In my opinion, the United States should not spend a penny on sending Patriot fire units to Ukraine. These are highly expensive systems, and the funds approved by Congress will quickly diminish if the United States incurs a ten-billion-dollar bill. The same applies to fighter jets. US aid would be better allocated to ATACMS missiles, air-defense missiles, artillery shells, Bradley fighting vehicles, and electronic warfare systems. Europe should shoulder the responsibility for artillery shells, Patriot fire units, and fighter jets.
Europe and the United States need to balance their supply based on their capabilities.
So, I don’t know if Europe will go back to sleep. They have done so in the past. It has been several weeks since Ukraine requested the Patriot fire units. They have been requesting them since the middle of February, and now it is almost the end of April with only one unit promised by Germany.
Will they cease this madness? I don’t know. I hope they do. However, what I do know is that the French administration has significantly ramped up domestic defense manufacturing. They have intensified their efforts, with orders already placed and weapons beginning to roll out of French factories.
The absence of confirmation regarding the Patriot Fire units destined for Ukraine is currently the only sticking point. It will be up to the EU to deliver on this front.
What will be Putin’s options now?
The state media was highly active before U.S. Congress passed the bill. However, I did not notice any notable activity after the Ukraine aid bill was cleared. They are likely stunned, as they did not anticipate the fractured American political system to unite and deliver.
A well-armed Ukraine is not good news for Russia; it is extremely detrimental to their interests. Putin may consider withdrawing, but he will be deeply concerned about the perception of defeat.
Perhaps there will be one final surge and maneuver for a ceasefire.
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