Unsustainable Losses Led to Russia’s Collapse in Kherson

Russia has no plans to return

Shankar Narayan

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Image by Vecteezy

US media coverage of the midterm elections diverted its attention from Ukraine. Since October, the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war have markedly changed. Ukraine escalated its attacks to such a level that Russia had no choice but to reduce its area of occupation.

Data Source: Kyiv Independent — Oct 31, Nov 14

Russia has lost more than 600 soldiers every day since October, which is twice the long term average. According to US officials, Russian army is on the verge of exhausting its human supply.

The Pentagon assesses that over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured and “probably” an equivalent number of Ukrainian soldiers, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at an event in New York on Wednesday night

Before Putin ordered Russian troops to march into Ukraine, the army had 168 battalion tactical groups(BTGs). These troops are the “combat capable forces of the ground forces, airborne troops, and marines designed for conventional warfare. Considering that each BTG typically consisted of 800–1,000 soldiers and officers, the country’s total combat capable force did not exceed 168,000”.

Over the last eight months Russia has lost manpower worth 100 battalion tactical groups. The war reduced the Russian army to less than half of what it used to be. It is for this reason that Putin ordered a partial mobilization.

Even before the newly recruited troops were properly trained and added to the battlefield, Ukraine escalated things to the point where the occupying force was forced to shrink its footprint.

The Kherson Run

After Putin’s initial plan to knock Ukraine out in 100 hours failed, his strategy switched to dismembering Ukraine of its economic lifeblood. Turning Ukraine into a landlocked state surrounded by Russia in three directions became Russia’s new goal.

As a result of this strategic encirclement, Ukraine would have become extremely vulnerable to future Russian attacks. Without access to the Black Sea, the…

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Shankar Narayan

Lov stats and hate status-quo. Forecasted all the states Biden won in 2020. Correctly forecasted the twin Georgia elections in 2021, House and Senate in 2022.