War for Ukraine’s Soul: Winter is Coming

Here is why Ukraine will try to turn the tables this time

Hot Mugs in a Cold Winter (Licensed Image)

For at least a few months after Ukraine began its counteroffensive in June, I harbored a wish to see them reach the Sea of Azov before winter. It did not look like an improbable task when they started playing hide and seek with the formidable Surovikin line near Robotyne early this month.

The Russian lines further down the Surovikin line weren’t as good, and Ukraine was just 15 kilometers from reaching Tokmak. It will be over for the occupiers in Western Zaporizhzhia once Ukraine hits the Tokmak boundary. If you are interested in finding out why this is the case, you can read my thesis, “Ukraine, 16 km Away from taking control of the South.”

With reserves in place, the option to push a little harder towards Tokmak will always be there for Ukraine. But despite the uptick in the supply of and sophistication of Western weapons, Ukraine chose to stick to its current strategy of gradual erosion of Russian capacity in the battlefield instead of explosive destruction.

That positioning means Ukraine has to hold the initiative from now to the winter and then keep it all the way until the end of the snowy season. We can actually divide this period into two parts or maybe even four, but I am going to divide it into…