West should set the redlines. Not Putin. Not anymore.

Time has come to turn the tables

I think the second widely used word after Russia in western national security circles since 2022 is the word redline. It is simply not possible to function without it.

U.K: Can we allow Ukraine to use our missiles to hit targets inside Russia?

Response: No sir, it crosses the redline.

France: Can we send European troops to perform support functions, so that it frees up Ukrainian troops for combat?

Response: No sir, it crosses the redline

Ukraine: The Germans are helping us so much at a critical period, why not give the Taurus missiles so that we break the Russian logistics chain?

Response: No sir, it crosses the Chancellor’s personal redline.

We can go on and on and on. Destroying a Russian ammunition depot with six ATACMS missiles will cost the west around $6 million dollars. But destroying 60 missiles with long range air-defense units such as the Patriots will cost the west $120 to $180 million.

Shooting the arrows instead of the archer costs a whole lot of western taxpayer money and destroys a whole lot of Ukrainian lives.

On March 11th, 2022, two weeks after Putin invaded Ukraine, President Biden drew the first redline — one that he himself struggled immensely to move beyond.

“The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand, don’t kid yourself, no matter what y’all say, that’s called World War III,” President Biden told House Democrats in Philadelphia.

It was his first redline, one that continues to prevent the Western world from responding to Russian aggression in a cost-effective way. Beyond just the cost, it also removed the possibility of victory from the Western table.

The worst part is, Putin didn’t dictate these redlines to the West — Western leaders drew them around themselves and got stuck within.

Here’s an alternative approach:

“The idea that we will never send offensive equipment or have planes, tanks, and trains manned by Western pilots and crews — just understand, don’t kid yourself, no matter what they say, it won’t be World War III. Because if we flex our muscles together, this war will be over in no time. I won’t tell Mr. Putin what I will or won’t do, but if he drops a single bomb on a civilian building, he’ll find out exactly what I’ll do in response. Let him try. He’ll know the consequences on the battlefield.”

That’s how you reverse the redline. You make it clear after careful consideration, and then you follow through. One by one, you can limit the Russian army’s atrocities. Don’t send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine right away. But tell President Putin that for every civilian building bombed by his missiles, Ukraine will receive 100 ATACMS missiles. He will likely test this at least once to see if the West has the resolve to follow through. When he does, simply act as promised.

Little by little, he will stop bombing civilian targets. It is our weakness that gives Putin the license to continue. License to escalate. License to rattle the nuclear sabre. We are the ones provoking Putin.

There is so much the West could have done to cripple the Russian army by imposing their own redlines on Putin, instead of adopting his redlines for themselves.

President Biden’s term ends on January 20, 2025. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under extreme pressure from his own party, as his popularity has been underwater for a long time. He no longer has the political capital to protect his past redlines — at least not without support from the White House.

The United States remains the lead player in shaping the Western response to Russian aggression.

What we need is a structured approach through which the Western world imposes its redlines on Putin’s forces. Every time Putin crosses one, Ukraine’s combat power should increase. The response must be deliberate, immediate, and visible, but the trigger should always rest with Putin. We respond only when he acts. However, the cost imposed should be so severe that even Putin fears his own trigger-happy finger.

A lot has changed over the last two months. Western investments in capacity building are beginning to bear fruit, and we are entering the early stages of reaping those benefits. Reversing the redlines — from drawing them around ourselves to drawing them around Putin — will bring us closer to peace and global security.

Kamala Harris will have much on her plate the day she assumes office. Make no mistake: as soon as she walks into the White House, Putin will likely do something to put her and America’s relationships with its allies under pressure. It will be a test — to gauge her mettle and capacity to respond, to understand the kind of president she will be, and to find her weaknesses.

Putin’s regime is shaky, and there’s a lot for him to lose if the United States truly steps out of its own shadow. This makes it likely that he will attempt something — maybe targeting a dam, Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, or perhaps stirring trouble in the Middle East or with the Houthis. He will try to box Kamala Harris in as soon as she takes office.

She cannot box herself in, as President Biden did on March 11th, 2022. She needs to box Putin. To make this easier, she must bring in fresh minds and top talent into the American national security apparatus. As soon as she knows she has won the election, she should start mapping out a response plan to impose her redlines on Putin.

Thanks for reading. The mainstream media seems clueless and perhaps uninterested. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 290 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.