Western Media Finally Realises Putin Has Reached the War or State Zone

This shift in assessment will have a significant impact on the war.

Some of my readers might think that I am frustrated with the mainstream media in the United States and Western media in general — and they would be correct. However, I do not for a second underestimate the crucial role these institutions must play in shaping the world, holding those in power accountable, and exposing the facades that governments around the world often build.

Without their efforts, it would be incredibly challenging to cut through the layers of misinformation and reach the truth. Media organizations need to deploy their resources effectively to help us pierce the fog of deception deliberately created by those in power to keep the public in the dark. They play a vital role in protecting democracy, upholding institutions, and preserving everything that structurally supports a democratic system.

After a long delay, Western media have finally come to realize that Putin’s runway to continue the invasion of Ukraine is coming to an end. The Institute for the Study of War detailed this shift in perspective in a report published earlier today.

The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is “in danger of overheating,” noting that Russia’s excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.

The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia’s labor force and production capacity are “almost exhausted.” The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages

The Washington Post also noted that Russia’s stringent migration policies, particularly after the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, have further depleted Russia’s labor pool and amplified economic frictions. This has particularly become the case as migrant workers are increasingly identifying Russia as a hostile and unattractive place to relocate for work.

After quoting The Washington Post, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated, “Russian resources are finite, and Putin cannot bear these costs indefinitely. Russia’s economy will reach a breaking point, and that point will impose severe costs on Russian society, potentially forcing Putin to make major decisions about funding the war or altering Russia’s approach to preserve his regime’s stability.”

Over the last two and a half years, the IMF has done significant work adapting its standards to support Putin’s narrative that all is well with the Russian economy. In reality, Putin has been squeezing the state for every penny to sustain the war. He has managed state finances directly, using daily cash flows from oil revenues and balancing deficits with cash and gold reserves held in the national wealth fund.

Western media should have recognized the severity of Russia’s economic issues the day he appointed economist Andrey Belousov as head of the Russian Defense Ministry. Yet they failed to notice, allowing Putin to maintain the facade of a “limitless runway” to conduct the war. The implication has been that Putin, as a dictator controlling 10% of the global oil market, could outlast the West.

Our media has consistently suggested that Putin can endure more hardship than the West, reinforcing this notion to Western politicians and the public alike. How many people in the West truly believe Russia is in serious trouble? Not many.

But now, with The Washington Post acknowledging Russia’s economic challenges, this narrative is set to shift. It won’t happen overnight, nor does it need to.

The next time House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mike McCaul or House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner meets with the U.S. national security team, that team will no longer be able to argue that Putin has an unlimited runway to sustain the war.

The next time former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tells the German Chancellor or EU parliamentarians that an outright victory is both just and achievable, she won’t be laughed at.

And the next time the IMF considers releasing a rosy forecast for the Russian economy — oh, wait. They won’t be releasing one now, will they?

This is the power of the fourth estate.

With The Washington Post taking the lead, other major outlets will be more cautious in their own assessments. Optimistic portrayals of Russia’s economy will soon be a thing of the past. This might not seem like much, but it’s huge — it removes the argument that Russia can outlast the West. It will force national security teams worldwide to adjust their strategies.

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 310 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.