What is Ukraine Doing?

Why absorb the hits, if you can respond?

Donald Trump and Bashar al-Assad have kept the Kremlin and the virulent Russian ultranationalist community awake and on edge over the past few days.

Trump’s publication of the desperately hidden data on Russian casualty numbers — 600,000, which the Kremlin had been concealing — sent Russia into a mini-scramble to refute the claim. They tried to dance around it, but their attempts miserably failed. Trump stating that 600,000 Russians are gone carries a vastly different weight compared to Zelensky making the same statement using identical words.

The impact on Russian Telegram channels will be dramatically different.

It was amusing to watch.

Two presidents, Trump and Putin, both adept at waging war in the information sphere, trying to push narratives that serve their interests. It was a lengthy post by Trump, but within it, the President-elect embedded the statement that the war is going disastrously for Russia.

Sadly, Putin can’t attack Trump. Even the prominent Russian ultranationalists are carefully avoiding Donald Trump.

Putin sacrificed his operations in Africa and the Middle East to continue his meat-grinder tactics in Ukraine. He is willing to lose 10,000 troops in five days at the Ukrainian front but will not send 10,000 troops to protect his bases in Syria and keep his destabilizing operations in Africa running.

Some say that Putin has no resources. He does, but they are not enough to cover a two-front war. It’s too risky at the moment. “Czar,” would have been the message he likely received from his recruiters and commanders in charge of the Ukrainian front. Russia recruited 70,000 troops between September and October but lost over 80,000. They asked North Korea to send 12,000 troops to cover the gap. The line is stretched to its limit. They cannot afford to pull 10k troops out of Ukraine.

The cost for the Russian army in Ukraine is 53 casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory captured. The plan appears to be to capture as much territory as possible and then seek a ceasefire — preferably on the first day of the Trump administration. It’s not an easy task, but Putin likely sees it as the only way to stop the economic noose from strangling the Russian state for the last time.

A premature ceasefire could have devastating consequences, reshaping the dynamics of the conflict and endangering Ukraine’s sovereignty. Fredrik Wesslau, a distinguished policy fellow at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, highlights this danger in Foreign Policy:

“The real risk is not the prospect of a Trump-Putin deal struck above the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans. It is, rather, that Putin will use Trump’s desire for a deal to extract concessions from the United States, split the West, and undermine Western support for Ukraine. This would make it easier for Russia to subjugate and take political control of Ukraine; rearm and recover with the strength of the Ukrainian economy and population; and prepare for the next attack on a European country”.

If you are Ukraine and you’re watching this scenario unfold right in front of your eyes, what would you do? Consider these two options:

1. Use all your resources, launch a counterattack, and try to defeat the Russian army.
2. Stockpile as many resources as possible, drag the ceasefire negotiations for as long as possible, and prepare to counterattack when the talks fail.

There is substantial evidence that Ukraine is executing the second option.

• The 4,500-strong Anne de Kyiv Brigade, trained and fully equipped by France, is ready for deployment but has not yet been deployed. Multiple Russian ultranationalists suggested before the U.S. elections that Ukraine is holding back five brigades. This is likely true.
• Two long-range missile drones have entered mass production. Ukraine has been manufacturing Neptune missiles for some time, but they have barely used any of them.
• Ukraine now has close to 20 F-16s but is only using them for defensive missions.

Another factor to consider is the stance of the Biden administration. If Ukraine launches a counterattack and gains the upper hand on the battlefield, the administration — which is still sitting on over $3 billion in Ukraine aid — will most likely slow down the delivery of aid. This has happened multiple times in the past. Whenever Ukraine gains the upper hand, aid deliveries slow to bring the war into balance. The U.S. has made it clear they do not want Ukraine to win decisively, nor do they want Russia to win. This is exactly where the war stands two and a half years after Putin invaded Ukraine.

It is a sad reality because Ukraine is taking heavy hits and cannot fully unleash its strength due to the lack of clarity about future support. Ukraine will likely focus on protecting key locations such as Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk, while being willing to cede smaller settlements in other areas.

Is this worth the pain?

Yes.

Negotiating with the Trump administration when Ukraine’s warehouses are full is a vastly different scenario than negotiating when they are depleted. The hardships Ukraine endures now — accepting small but incremental losses — represent a calculated strategy: enduring short-term pain for the prospect of long-term gain.

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.