What Ukraine can do. What Ukraine cannot do

The Impact of President Biden’s decision to relax his rules

As someone who spent my entire childhood and teenage years playing various competitive sports, I know only one way to play: to win. There is no other way. There is no such thing as a limited win. Playing any other way keeps your opponent in the game and increases your chances of failure.

However, bring in a few scientists and bookworms, and you can come up with many different types of strategies. Add a few talkers to the mix, and they will insist their data-driven strategy is the best way forward. For two and a half years, the American administration never accepted the notion that they were controlling the war by restricting the flow of weapons to Ukraine.

There will always be some excuse. They did not tell us they didn’t want to give the F16 fighter jets. Instead, they said it would take a year and a half to train the pilots.

They did not tell us that they didn’t want to give the ATACMS missiles due to fear of escalation. Instead, they told us there weren’t enough in stock to send.

There was always some unique answer. The idea was to give us the impression that support was unlimited and that they were not controlling the war by controlling the weapons.

Finally, that facade was thrown out the window this week when the United States allowed the entire world to know how, when, and to what extent Urkaine can respond to Russian forces trying to capture Kharkiv city from the northeast.

I am happy that people know the truth, and are not led to believe something far from it. So, what’s the deal now? What can Ukraine do, and what can it not do?

Counter-fire over the border: Permitted

Biden’s directive allows for U.S.-supplied weapons to be used for “counterfire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” one official said.

This is good news.

As the Russians advance, they will keep moving their artillery units further and further into occupied territory. The problem for Ukraine was that Russians could keep those artillery units comfortably inside their own border while hitting the Ukrainians, leaving Ukrainians with no way to strike back at the units targeting them.

This limitation has been removed. If Ukraine spots a Russian artillery unit firing from Belgorod Oblast, where the majority of Russia’s northern grouping forces are stationed, Ukraine can now strike them.

Can Ukraine use the long-range ATACMS? NOPE.

Once again, this decision shows that despite Ukraine abiding by all the rules imposed by Western nations regarding the usage of weapons, there is no trust whatsoever. Ukraine can use artillery to fire into Belgorod, but they cannot use the ATACMS. This means Russians can move their warehouses a little further back. Forty kilometers from the border should be fine, creating safe zones just beyond the first 40 kilometers from the border.

This is not unmanageable from the Ukrainian perspective. If this frontline was long established and Russians had entrenched themselves at the front, Ukraine would need longer-range weapons to hit the rear. But since the frontline is still not marked, Ukraine can still hit the Russian troops and prevent them from digging in. What makes things worse for the Russians is that they are trying to reach Kharkiv.

Their best option now is to dig into their current positions in the north-east. Advancing is nearly impossible now. ATACMS could have helped Ukraine, but it is not a significant setback in terms of evicting the Russians or stopping their advance.

Can Ukraine hit Russian fighter jets before they reach the border? Oh, yes.

Ukraine has been allowed to use U.S. anti-aircraft weapons to take down the imminent threat of Russian aircraft flying in both Ukrainian and Russian airspace.

This was an extremely important decision. Russians have finally understood the importance of air power and have found a way to achieve localized air superiority. Russia will indiscriminately drop glide bombs into the sector, making it extremely difficult for Ukrainian defenders to stay above ground.

These bombs are so inaccurate that even the pilots will have no idea where they will end up. If Russian pilots have no idea, how can the Ukrainian forces prepare for them? You just build whatever protection you can and leave the rest to God.

Glide bombs would have become a huge problem in the Kharkiv sector because Russian jets can safely drop the bombs from inside Russian borders and continue devastating Ukrainian positions. The United States has given permission for Ukraine to hit those jets inside Russian territory. The only way to stop the glide bombs from reaching Ukrainian positions is by pushing those pesky jets far away from the frontline.

Ukraine can do that now.

Can Ukraine hit Russian jets at their air bases? Nope.

This capability was never there because the United States has already ruled out ATACMS in the northeast. Russians are not going to have an airfield within artillery range of the border. Most of their airfields are hundreds of kilometers from the border, some of which are within range for ATACMS. However, Ukraine cannot use ATACMS or other Western weapons to hit those bases.

I know what you’re thinking.

What about British Storm Shadow and French SCALP missiles? Britain and France have allowed Ukraine to hit Russian targets, isn’t it?

Sadly, those missiles are not ideal for hitting military assets dispersed over a confined area. ATACMS are the ones for that job, and Ukraine can’t use them.

Though many European allies have publicly stated that Ukraine can use their weapons as they see fit, Ukraine will hesitate to cross that bridge. They will stay within the restrictions America places on the usage of its own weapons.

Do you know why? They don’t want to take that risk with the Biden administration.

Not you, Britain

After Zelensky’s revelation that Great Britain did not sanction Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets inside Russia, I was a little taken aback.

Speaking inside his presidential headquarters, Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given “100% permission” to do so.

This was in complete contradiction to what Great Britain was saying publicly, as they repeatedly stated that Ukraine has a legitimate right to hit the enemy wherever the enemy is.

I thought Ukraine was not using the weapons because the United States had a blanket ban on them crossing the border for any reason whatsoever. This was indeed a very bad decision taken by Great Britain, despite their amazing track record in assisting Ukraine against their enemy.

And this also means one other thing: the allies, as a whole, are still looking up to President Biden and his national security team for leadership. They want to step out of the shadow — you can see that bubble coming up every now and then, only to pop as it hits the surface.

To a large extent, we reached this point because Great Britain backed Ukraine and provided the long-range Storm Shadow missiles when no one else was ready to take that step. Ukraine devastated Russia’s air-defense assets in Crimea with long-range missiles, which allowed them to drive the Black Sea Fleet away from Crimea, take control of the Black Sea, secure their maritime corridor, and get their economy back on track.

Britain normalized the supply of long-range weapons. They erased the imaginary red line the West drew around itself. So, it was very disappointing to have their politicians make us believe that they did not place any restrictions on using their weapons when, in fact, they did.

Come on, Great Britain. Let it go. Stay ahead of the curve, as you always have.

Is this good enough for Ukraine to take control of the Kharkiv sector? The answer is…

Yes.

It could have been better.

But this week, Ukraine’s fortunes are so much better than they were last month.

→The rules relaxed by the United States, especially the allowance for counter-battery fire into Belgorod Oblast, will make it extremely hard for the Russians to advance further.

→The decision to target Russian jets inside Russian territory will deny the Russians control of the sky in the Kharkiv sector, making it difficult for them to defend their frontline positions.

→Russian occupation forces in the north-east are now exposed on open ground without defensive fortifications.

But the biggest benefit of all is that the decision by the United States has made it extremely hard for the Russians to open up another front further north. They desperately wanted to do that, but I think they are going to shelve those plans for now and concentrate their combat power in the Kharkiv sector to see how far they can press.

The tide is turning.

Slowly.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 183 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one. Feel free to share it with anyone.