When Will Ukraine Stop the Russian Advance Towards Pokrovsk?
They Are in Control of Only Part of Their Fate in This Direction
If I were to explain the situation at the front in a single line, it would be the following: Ukraine is counterattacking the Russian forces in Vovchansk (northeast), while the Russians are counterattacking Ukrainian forces on the way towards Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast).
In Vovchansk, the Russian advance has stalled since the beginning of June, but they have managed to hold the line by pouring extensive resources into the sector. It was only after opening a new front in the northeast, the Russians started losing more than 1,000 soldiers per day. So, northeast is where Russian combat power goes to die.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russians are still advancing as Ukraine refuses to exchange lives to hold the line. This, as well as the terrain on the way towards Pokrovsk, has helped the Russian forces to advance. The areas where the Russians have advanced over the last two months consist of small settlements and open fields.
You can see that in the image below.
The distance between Ocheretyne and Vesele is almost 14 kilometers. However, can you see the amount of open space between the two villages? This is the area where the Russians are advancing. Ideally, Ukraine, with its experience in decentralized mobile defense strategy, should have the upper hand. But somehow, the Russians have gained the advantage in this sector.
There are a few reasons for this:
Instead of trying to advance in a small section, the Russians have massed their troops in the area. They are keeping pressure on Ukrainian forces across a 40-kilometer-wide front. The Russians have numerical strength and a willingness to sacrifice any number of lives to achieve their goals. To mount a strong mobile defense against such a large cross-section of high-intensity attacks, Ukraine would need to concentrate its forces in the sector.
You can still use the mobile defense principle, but you need to ramp up your force density in the sector to balance the combat power the enemy has concentrated in the area. If you do that, you can stop their advance and maybe even start to push them back.
That is exactly what the Ukrainian forces are doing in Vovchansk. Now, take a look at the Ukrainian force positions in the direction of Pokrovsk and compare them to how they are positioned in Vovchansk.
In Vovchansk, it looks as if Ukraine has mounted man-to-man coverage. In comparison, the lines in the direction of Pokrovsk are fairly thin.
Between the two sectors, it is the Vovchansk sector that gives Ukraine a better opportunity to counterattack. It is a small area, and the fight in Vovchansk is happening street by street. It is almost an urban fight, which explains why the Russians lose so many troops in the defense of Vovchansk.
So, what do you do? Do you start moving troops around the frontline? Do you pull troops out of Vovchansk to reinforce your lines in the Pokrovsk direction? Or do you wait for the Western world to equip the 14 brigades that are manned but not yet resourced?
Ukraine has chosen the last option, and I struggle to blame them for it. I want them to figure out a way to stop the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk. But when it comes to deciding where to find the troops to relocate, I immediately hit the ‘let’s wait a bit’ button.
I guess the shoes of the commander-in-chief are not easy ones to fill, especially when you have allies who don’t understand the importance of time.
ISW believes the Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction is heading towards defensive lines, and the advantage of terrain will slightly shift in favor of Ukraine:
Russia’s current rate of tactical advance towards Pokrovsk will likely not continue indefinitely, however, as Russian forces are approaching a line of larger and more urban settlements.
Current Russian efforts in the Pokrovsk direction are concentrated on achieving a tactical breakthrough near Zhelanne and Novohrodivka.The next defensible line between the current forward Russian line of advance and Pokrovsk runs between the towns of Selydove, Novohrodivka, and Hrodivka, with many of the current
Russian tactical advances focused specifically on the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka sector of the line (about five kilometers west of Russian positions in the Vesele area). Novohrodivka and Hrodivka had pre-war populations of about 14,000 and 2,000, respectively, and are larger and relatively more urban than many of the smaller settlements that Russian forces have seized since they began moving west of Avdiivka in February 2024.
These towns are by no means as large and urban as Mariupol or even Bakhmut, for example, but they pose a very different tactical problem set for advancing Russian forces, who have recently been mostly advancing across open fields, small windbreaks, and settlements that are a few blocks long.
Russian forces in Ukraine have historically struggled with completing combat operations rapidly in more urbanized or residential areas — for example Russian forces fought in earnest over five months to seize Avdiivka, which is only a little larger than Novohrodivka.
Ukraine is waiting to equip 14 brigades, President Zelensky told Bloomberg:
We have brigades without weapons. We have reserves. We have 14 understaffed brigades lacking the necessary weapons that have been voted on and discussed. The aid packages should be coming, but they are arriving slowly
I think he used the word “understaffed” mistakenly, or it may have been lost in translation. He said there are reserves. If there are reserves, then they are not understaffed. But anyway, even if that were the case, it is a problem that is under Ukraine’s control and they can fix it.
The core problem is the number of brigades waiting for equipment continues to grow. As the president noted, they are not waiting for weapons that are not yet promised. They are still waiting for weapons “that have been voted on and discussed.”
This is as stupid as it can get.
The problem Ukraine is facing in the Pokrovsk direction is because of the western delay in supplying weapons. I really don’t know what to say. Either they take forever to arrive at a decision, or, when they do, they take forever to deliver.
Certainly, Putin is not going to be complaining.
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