Where ATACMS Go F16s Will Follow
ATACMS do what they were born to do: Destroying Russian air-defense systems
Reflexively, the word “decimated” came to mind. However, “decimated” would imply being ground into ashes. Yet, the remains of the S-400 Triumf air-defense system positioned near Mospyne village in Donetsk Oblast, after yesterday’s ATACMS attack, were still visible. So, I decided to settle on describing the remains as ‘scrap’.
Video footage of the attack, published and reviewed by experts, showed the Russian air-defense systems firing seven interceptors against the incoming ATACMS. However, they fell short as the ATACMS missiles ended up showering the area with hundreds of submunitions. One by one, the three Russian air-defense launchers were first engulfed in fire and then finally exploded.
For unknown reasons, I imagined what I would do if I were the crew operating an S-400 battery tracking an incoming missile, homing in on my position. I think I will run. I am not going to sit there, operating the unit. Let Putin and his trolls who often ask us, why are we not fighting in Ukraine, go there and do it.
It’s a whole lot of millions for nothing.
One S-400 battery costs a whopping $800 million. Russia used to export these systems as a billion-dollar package, including the battery and missiles. China has six batteries. India has ordered five batteries. Turkey has four batteries. A total cost of $15 to $20 billion dollars.
70 ATACMS missiles can be bought for less than $140 million. It is a lot cheaper and more effective to do business with the United States. You are better off buying old American weapons, even the ones that are past their expiry date, instead of buying brand new Russian weapons equipped with ‘state of the Russian art’ tech.
Russia’s latest technology is far inferior to 1980s American technology.
The M39 Block I version of ATACMS are introduced in 1991. It is basically technology from 1980s and has been decommissioned by the US military.
The Russian S-400 “Triumf” is Russia most advanced air defense system. It has been introduced in 2007 and received constant upgrades and updates.
Countries like Turkey or India, which purchased those systems, are certainly amazed when realizing what they acquired. The war Ukrainian war absolutely backfired for the Russian military-industrial complex, wrote a prominent, Ukrainian military blogger
“After 1991, Russian decisionmakers were paranoid that they might be the next victims of NATO air power. So the limited financial resources Russia had in the 1990s were allocated to developing systems designed to defend against Western air-based threats.
A significant share of Russian force planning in the post-Cold War era has been focused on countering the types of Western long-range strike threats currently seen in. And yet, Russia appears to be incapable of dealing with them effectively”, said Fabian Hoffmann, Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project.
The most expensive weapon manufactured by Russia is no match to a system the United States developed in the 80s.
Yesterday’s ATACMS attack on the Russian air-defense system marked the fifth such assault on Russia’s depleting air-defense units in the last four weeks. Ukraine initially focused its attention on the S-400 and S-300 systems in Crimea; now, they have shifted their focus to the south east.
Ukraine is clearing the deck for the arrival of F-16s. They are shaping the battlefield to protect their prized jets from being spotted and taken out by Russian air-defense systems. In addition to targeting the air-defense systems, Ukraine has also successfully knocked out five SU-25 fighter jets in the month of May.
It is indeed a peculiar phenomenon. I’ve observed a significant increase in the interception of SU-25 fighter jets this month, whereas the usual SU-30s haven’t been targeted as frequently. I’ll need to delve deeper to uncover the reasons behind this trend.
If anyone knows how to bring down fighter jets using both age-old air-defense systems and brand-new ones, it’s the Ukrainian air-defense crews. While S-400 and other Russian air-defense systems may have been vulnerable to Ukrainian tactics and weapons, they still pose a threat to fighter jets.
Ukraine’s F-16 flight path will continue to be restricted and risky as pilots contend with multiple layers of Russian air-defense systems: short-range, medium-range, and long-range systems. Of the three, they are prioritizing the elimination of the long-range Russian systems, aiming to neutralize as many as possible. As quickly as possible.
Why quickly? What is the hurry?
Ukraine’s readiness to host the F-16s underscores the urgency of neutralizing the long-range Russian air-defense systems.
Any… day… now…
All the missing pieces of the F-16 puzzle have been solved, though not to my heart’s content. Nonetheless, there’s enough to get going.
A few days ago, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Ilya Yevlash confirmed to state media, “The first specialists in this field (in maintaining F-16s) have already started returning to Ukraine, where they will be able to share their expertise with the personnel within the country. For instance, we have already seen the arrival of the first F-16 simulator in Ukraine provided by the Czech Republic.”
Not just the first batch of trained F-16 ground crew have returned to Ukraine; the first batch of F-16 pilots trained in the United States are also headed home.
According to Politico:
The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training at an Arizona military base, a crucial step toward pulling modern, American made figther jets in Ukraine’s skies, Capt. Erin Hannigan, a spokesperson with the Air National Guard, told our own Lara Seligman.
The pilots had been training at the 162nd National Guard Air Force base in Tucson. Hannigan would not confirm how many have graduated or the exact date of graduation “out of abundance of caution for their saftey.”
The pilots are now headed to Europe for additional training, according to a person with knoweldge of their movments. Ukraine is slated to recieve more than 60 F-16s from Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium.
For obvious reasons, the pilots will likely be heading to Europe, most probably Romania, where Europe has set up an F-16 training facility. For pilots, training never ends. They keep flying until everything becomes a reflex.
- Ukraine’s first batch of trained F-16 pilots are ready, alongside their first batch of ground crew.
- ATACMS strikes are effectively clearing out the long-range Russian air-defense systems.
- United States has supplied a substantial number of air-defense missiles to Ukraine.
Ukrainian armed forces did not lose any of the Patriot batteries since they were supplied in April last year, although one launcher may have been lost. Germany is sending one more Patriot fire unit, while Italy is sending one of its long-range SAMP/T air-defense system. Both air-defense units are slated to reach Ukraine alongside the F-16s.
The stage is set to host the F-16s.
It would have been ideal if Europe had added more air-defense systems to Ukraine. However, the effort led by Germany to cover Ukrainian skies has stagnated. There has been no movement, and no European nation that possesses the Patriot air-defense system has been willing to send one to Ukraine, except for Germany. The rest of the nations seem to be caught in an endless loop of talks.
They’re hesitant to give away their air-defense systems because they fear it will weaken their own defenses. It’s unlikely that Poland, Romania, Spain, and Greece would relinquish their units without receiving replacements, especially considering the lack of available units worldwide. Israel does have some units slated for retirement, but they are unlikely to part with them. Switzerland, although slated to receive new Patriot units, is unlikely to give any away due to their neutral stance in the conflict.
So, we find ourselves back at square one.
It’s not an ideal situation, but it’s not so devastating that we need to throw in the towel. Ukraine will have seven Patriot and SAMP/T long-range air-defense systems. Since it’s unlikely Ukraine will receive the next unit for a very long time, the best course of action would be to load up on Ukraine’s air-defense missile stockpile.
On March 8th, France ordered an additional 200 Aster missiles with MBDA. These missiles are specifically designed for use with the SAMP/T air defense systems.
Having a surplus of air-defense missiles is crucial for maintaining a strong defense. If Ukraine determines they need 100 air-defense missiles every month, adding an additional 30% and continuously delivering will indeed bolster their capabilities. It’s a strategy that emphasizes having a high number of missiles even if the number of launchers is limited.
Germany’s initiative to bolster Ukraine’s air-defense has already raised close to 1 billion euros. Continuously adding more funds to the pool and purchasing Patriot interceptors for Ukraine is crucial. Last month marked a significant development as Germany ordered three HIMARS launchers from the United States, took immediate delivery, and sent them to Ukraine.
Though unusual, it was a good decision.
Europe needs to adopt a similar approach.
Instead of leaning over and waiting for the United States to provide everything, European nations should contribute by ordering air-defense missiles and storing them in Poland. Then, they can continuously send shipments to Ukraine every month.
Transitioning the United States from being the primary backer of Ukraine’s air-defense to focusing on supporting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities will be a strategic shift. Continuously supplying Ukraine with ATACMS missiles can significantly enhance their offensive capabilities, providing them with the means to effectively target Russian military equipment and other assets.
During the Gulf War, the United States and its coalition partners achieved air superiority and conducted a highly effective air campaign. In a matter of weeks, they targeted and destroyed a significant amount of heavy equipment, warehouses, military facilities, and other enemy infrastructure. This bombardment played a crucial role in weakening the enemy’s capabilities and ultimately contributed to the success of the coalition’s ground offensive.
We may never witness such action in Ukraine due to various reasons. However, if one desires Ukraine to emerge victorious, that’s the type of combat reduction they need to compel their enemy to endure. The timeline and methodology will likely be different, but the objective remains the same.
Ukraine must utilize its F-16s and ATACMS to establish a similar threat environment for the Russian forces. It will be a bit more dynamic than the gulf war. We could have done this easily by equipping Ukraine with ten or twelve Patriot batteries and then deploying the F16s and ATACMS to engage the enemy positions.
Now, we need to do it the hard way.
But still…
I prefer our current position over where we stood in December 2023. That was a period of hopeless struggle.
Now, it is not.
Spain, Romania, Poland, and Greece should be forever known for their refusal to give air-defense systems to save lives. Their lack of foresight, courage, strength, and heart must be remembered.
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