Where Is the Ukraine Aid, President Biden?
Putin Desperately Needs an Escape Route
There is more than $15 billion remaining with the Biden administration for delivering military aid to Ukraine. The Ukraine aid bill that Congress cleared in April 2024 has many components, but the key ones that can directly provide military aid to Ukraine are:
- Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) ($13.8 billion)
- Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) ($7.8 billion)
There are still ten days left in August, and the next aid package will reveal exactly what we need to know about this administration and its intentions. I’m unsure if they will release the aid package soon. I have my doubts, but I will hold off on any conclusions until August 31 has passed.
The size of the aid package will be crucial. What they choose to send will be decisive.
This upcoming aid package is the most important one the United States has ever released, perhaps even more crucial than the one given in the last week of April. That package ensured that Ukrainian defenses did not collapse under the weight of Putin’s army. This new package has the potential to bring Ukraine closer to victory. May be even a win.
ISW’s Nataliya Bugayova has beautifully explained the impact of the American incrementalist approach and how it keeps Putin in the game.
Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. On the contrary, US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses.
The Kremlin’s weaknesses include its inability to rapidly pivot, dependence on others for Russia’s capability to sustain the war, and years of risk accumulation that Russian President Vladimir Putin is yet to reckon with. The Kremlin is vulnerable to an adversary who can generate momentum against Russia and deny the Kremlin opportunities to regroup and adapt.
A serious US strategy on Ukraine would prioritize achieving such momentum.
It would include removing Western-granted safe havens for Russia’s war machine. It would also include not only imposing multiple dilemmas on the Kremlin but the most painful ones, such as helping Ukraine make Russia fail on the battlefield faster and dismantling Russian narratives in the West. While it is premature to draw conclusions about Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast, the operation clearly has the potential to generate momentum. If it does, the United States should help Ukraine build on rather than dampen this momentum to regain control over the tempo of the war.
That is where the Biden administration finds itself now. If they send one of the largest aid packages to Ukraine, it will help sustain the momentum achieved in Kursk Oblast. Conversely, if they stall the aid to make a point or announce a smaller $400 million package instead, it would be clear that this administration is indirectly helping Putin by keeping him in the war.
This package will reveal who President Biden truly is. The situation in Ukraine has already gone beyond the decision making capabilities of his national security team. President Biden is the one who must make this decision.
He already knows what is happening in Kursk, and if he is aware of this, he should also recognize that Ukraine has offered him a path to victory through its blood, toil, and courage.
Will he choose to be a real winner? I hope he does. But my confidence level in him is not very high.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 250 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
