Why Did Ukraine Give Up Chasiv Yar’s Kanal District?
Because it will save Ukrainian lives and increase the cost for Russian armed forces
About a month after Ukraine lost Avdiivka, the Russian armed forces started pounding at the doors of Chasiv Yar. Thanks to its elevation, 230 meters above sea level, the small town with a pre-war population of 12,500 was key to Ukrainian defense in the Bakhmut sector.
Both Chasiv Yar and Klishiivka are very important. If they are lost, the advantage of the terrain shifts in favor of the Russian armed forces. Ukraine knew what the Russians were doing. Despite struggling with manpower shortages and deep questions about military aid, they poured as many resources as they could into Chasiv Yar’s defense.
It worked.
To this very day, the Russians have not crossed the Siverski Donets canal that runs north south of Chasiv Yar. You can see the canal (blue line) in the image below.
The image below shows the “Support dam on Seversky Donets, Donetsk region, Ukraine. Seversky Donets-Donbass canal in the foreground, Seversky Donets and a dam with locks in the background”.
This canal is a strong defensive barrier that has helped the Ukrainian forces immensely during their three-month defense of Chasiv Yar. The Kanal district, from which Ukraine withdrew yesterday, lies on the other side of the canal.
Ukraine withdrew from the Kanal district yesterday. When you see the image below, as well as the ones above, I am pretty sure you will understand why Ukraine chose to leave.
Let us reverse the question a bit.
If the Siverski Donets Canal was such a good defensive barrier, why did Ukraine attempt to defend Chasiv Yar by fighting on the other side of the canal? Why withdraw now to save lives when they could have done that months ago?
One reason is that there were structures in the district that Ukraine used to defend its positions. Months of fighting have reduced the entire district to a pile of rubble. It is as good as open fields now; nothing is left standing. If possible, Ukraine could have dug up the earth and built some fortifications. But you can’t do that at the line of contact. You can only do that a few miles behind the line of contact, and if the frontline fails, you fall back to the newly built line. The next problem was supplying the troops on the other side of the canal. There was only one route and you have to move under constant shelling.
The Russians have razed the Kanal district to the ground. There is nothing to hide behind. If Ukrainian troops continue to fight from there, they will have to pay a heavy price. Now they still have the canal, and there are only three pathways for the Russian forces to enter Chasiv Yar proper. The Russians also have to defend the Kanal district.
I don’t even know if I can call this a tactical withdrawal. It is a withdrawal that will help Ukraine save lives. The positions behind the canal will allow Ukraine to continue its defense.
Chasiv Yar is nowhere near falling into the hands of the Russian armed forces.
How long will the Russians be able to continue their advance?
A well-known open-source investigator tracking vehicular losses on both sides said that he thought the Russians would have taken control of the Kanal district in April. That was a period when Russia had the troops, ammunition, and missiles, while Ukraine was scraping through with deficiencies in all three.
Somehow, they managed to defend the lines around Chasiv Yar. A lot of credit must go to the Siverki-Donets canal. The situation in Ukraine is completely different now. If Russia needed this long to reach the Siverski Donets canal, and if reports are to be believed that Russia has indeed lost close to 100,000 soldiers in their Chasiv Yar offensive, then it is an extremely unsustainable proposition.
This could very well be the end of their advance in the Chasiv Yar sector.
Let me change that.
I think the Russian advance in Chasiv Yar is over.
They have taken hold of the last advantage the terrain could offer them. Now the advantage of the terrain has fully tilted in favor of Ukraine. There are many different ways Ukraine can still counterattack to weaken the Russian frontline in the Bakhmut sector.
They can hit them near Bohdanivka (north). They can hit them near Ivanivske. They can hit them at Klishiivka (south).
Of the three potential angles for a Ukrainian advance, I will drop my hammer at Ivanivske. This move will weaken the Russian forces standing at the doors of the Siverski Donets canal trying to enter Chasiv Yar, disrupt their supply lines, and cost them a ginormous amount of resources. Ukraine has many different options to make things unsustainable for the Russian forces near Chasiv Yar.
But if Ukraine decides to counterattack in Chasiv Yar, which I don’t think they should, they can extract a heavy price from the Russian forces.
Why do I think Ukraine should not counterattack in Chasiv Yar?
Both Ukrainian and Russian lines in this sector have been there for more than three months. There will be a good amount of defensive structures, supply lines, and all the other things needed to conduct the battle. Russia has nothing of that sort in the northeast.
Will you go after the location where the enemy has been entrenched for three months, or a place where he has just mindlessly jumped in? Between Chasiv Yar and the northeast, the latter is where Russia will lose a lot more resources. So, that would remain my top priority.
If I can find additional resources, then I will think about Chasiv Yar.
Otherwise, there is no need.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 224 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
