Why the Allies are Pouring IFVs and APCs into Ukraine
Will this be the end of nick-of-time delivery?
There are certain weapon requirements that will remain constant throughout this war. We can do nothing but keep supplying artillery shells, air-defense missiles, long-range missiles, electronic warfare equipment, and a few other items.
However, if you had asked me to choose a proportion between tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in 2022, I would have said a whole lot of tanks and a little bit of infantry fighting vehicles. Fast forward to 2024, I would pick a whole lot of infantry fighting vehicles and a little bit of tanks and other heavy weapons.
That is where I am now. The calculus might change another day, maybe a few weeks later, or perhaps even at the end of this year. But as of today, given the dynamics of the battlefield and the way it is shaping up, troop mobility is quickly becoming a huge factor influencing the battlefield.
He who is agile will keep the odds in his favor
The Russians are seriously running out of weapons. The Soviet-era stockpile is not an infinite resource; it is finite. There is only so much you can pull out of storage, refurbish, and push into the battlefield. As the number of soldiers has increased by 300%, the Russians are struggling to move these masses.
They are storming the frontline with golf carts, riding to the frontline on motorcycles, and walking to the frontline. How are you supposed to fight after walking ten kilometers? Fight after a small nap and a break? It is not without reason that the Russian casualty rate and daily losses keep climbing sharply.
Estimates vary, but it is reasonable to assume the Russians have around half a million troops in Ukraine. As Russian Defense Minister Belosov and President Putin warily watch their Soviet-era tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers deplete at an alarming rate, there is only one recourse they have: pile up the infantry.
They are already doing that, and they are going to do it even more.
Ukraine’s earlier strategy to maintain a lean but well-equipped force will not work well under these circumstances. They need to increase manpower, and they are adjusting accordingly. President Zelensky signed the mobilization law in April after an excruciating back-and-forth that lasted more than six months.
The bill is not perfect. It needs some adjustments, such as ending the open-ended contracts without any time limit. Soldiers should be let go after a certain period, which the bill does not address. However, it reduces the age limit from 27 to 25, increasing the pool of available recruits.
In December, President Zelensky announced that Ukraine would recruit half a million troops. This is a difficult task because Ukraine is a democracy and will be limited by rules and regulations. Nevertheless, they understand the need to increase manpower, so they will recruit.
For the sake of our analysis, let us assume Ukraine manages to recruit 500 to 1,000 men and women every day. This will add 15,000 to 30,000 troops per month. In six months, they could bring 100,000 to 200,000 soldiers into the fold.
How are they going to move such a huge army?
They cannot repeat the same mistake the Russians have made by asking their soldiers to find their way to the frontline. Ukraine needs a significant number of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs). They need these vehicles now and a steady flow of them in the future. Ukraine requires a highly mobile army that can move in and out of the frontline at an alarming speed.
You can see in the following images how the Russians are struggling to move their troops to the frontline.
With the other side riding motorcycles and golf carts, a highly mobile Ukrainian army will be a huge asset on the battlefield. Ukraine needs to ensure that this incoming force is strong in mobility. This will not only blunt the walking and talking Russian infantry but also allow Ukraine to launch rapid counterattacks and respond quickly to any threat from well-equipped Russian forces.
Every now and then, Russian forces will equip a small number of troops with all the weapons and then launch a mechanized attack. They will keep mixing it up. If Ukraine bets on speed, they can inflict serious damage on the Russian frontline.
This is the first time I’ve seen the entire West, from the United States to smaller European nations, collectively respond to a requirement well before it became a pressing need. They are sending a significant number of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
The Importance of IFVs and APCs
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) are designed with offensive operations in mind, providing mobility, firepower, and troop transport to support attacking infantry. However, their armor and firepower offer some defensive flexibility when needed. The key features of IFVs point towards an offensive role:
- Mobility: They prioritize speed and maneuverability to keep pace with advancing troops.
- Firepower: They carry a combination of a cannon and anti-tank missiles to engage enemy positions and armored vehicles. The U.S. supplied Bradley are a huge asset in the battlefield often destorying Soviet tanks on a head to head battle.
- Troop Transport: They can transport a squad of infantry directly into combat zones, allowing them to dismount and fight alongside the vehicle.
Armored personnel carriers (APCs) are crucial military personnel transport vehicles.
Troop Protection: APCs provide infantry with vital protection during transport across dangerous battlefields. Their armor shields troops from shrapnel, gunfire, and minefields. This allows soldiers to deploy closer to combat zones without being exposed to enemy fire.
Increased Mobility: Compared to tanks and IFVs, APCs are typically lighter and faster, allowing for quicker troop deployment and maneuvers. This makes them essential for fast-paced combat situations and urban warfare.
Firepower for Self-Defense: While not designed for head-on battles, APCs come equipped with mounted weapons for self-defense. This enables troops to defend themselves against lighter threats while on the move.
This is not nick of time delivery
Earlier this week, Sweden announced its largest Ukraine aid package ever, valued at €1.16 billion. It includes one of the best assortments of weapons I have seen in recent times. Sweden will be sending all its PBV 302s (Pansarbandvagn 302), a Swedish high-mobility infantry fighting vehicle, totaling around 650 vehicles.
These vehicles have their limitations. They are not the U.S. supplied Bradley fighting vehicles; the PBV 302 is a decades-old system, with production having stopped in 1971, and Sweden retired them in 2014. They must be pulling them out of storage and sending them to Ukraine, so some work will be needed to get them back into working condition.
Refurbishing is not Russia’s exclusive right; Sweden and Ukraine can do it too.
According to Wikipedia, the PBV 302 is “known for its exceptional off-road mobility due to wide tracks and a high power-to-weight ratio. Fully amphibious, allowing for operations in water bodies with minimal preparation.”
So, they are not Soviet-era duds. They may not be the latest models, but they are valuable.
On April 22nd, Great Britain announced that they are sending “more than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles, 162 armored vehicles, and 78 all-terrain vehicles.” The United States followed this trend by sending 100 M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers.
Let us calculate the capacity of all the vehicles that were announced after April 20th, 2024.
- PBV 302: Each vehicle can transport 8 troops. With 650 vehicles, that equals 650 * 8 = 5,200 troops.
- M2 Bradley: Each vehicle can transport 9 troops. With 100 vehicles, that equals 100 * 9 = 900 troops.
- M113 APC: Each vehicle can transport 12 troops. With 100 vehicles, that equals 100 * 12 = 1,200 troops.
- Great Britain’s vehicles: Assuming an average capacity (as specific capacities for each type aren’t detailed), let’s estimate:
- Protected mobility ‘Husky’ vehicles: 160 vehicles, each transporting 4 troops equals 160 * 4 = 640 troops.
- Armored vehicles: 162 vehicles, each transporting 6 troops, equals 162 * 6 = 972 troops.
- All-terrain vehicles: 78 vehicles, each transporting 3 troops, equals 78 * 3 = 234 troops.
Summing these up:
- PBV 302: 5,200 troops
- M2 Bradley: 900 troops
- M113 APC: 1,200 troops
- Great Britain’s vehicles: 1,846 troops (640 + 972 + 234)
Total capacity: 5,200 + 900 + 1,200 + 1,846 = 9,146 troops.
The German government has promised to send an unknown number of Boxer 8x8 armored vehicles.
Not a bad place to start. I think these packages are really good. They show that the West understood the requirements and proactively addressed them.
I have to give due credit to Great Britain for once again leading the way. It was they who started this change.
The U.K. Ministry of Defense published the tweet attached above on May 11th, 2024, but the decision was made on April 22nd, when the U.S senate cleared the Ukraine aid package and sent it the U.S. President.
It was a highly unusual package at that moment. There were 60 boats, 400 vehicles, and 1,600 missiles. The boats and missiles I understood then, but only now am I able to grasp the importance of 400 vehicles. Britain set the ball rolling. Since they released the aid package before the United States did, I think it nudged the United States to include a decent amount of Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and M113 Armored Personnel Carriers. Now, Sweden is sending 650 vehicles.
Actions do speak louder than words. I wrote this before, and I am going to say it again today, and I am 100% confident that I will write this many times before this war is over.
If not for Great Britain, Ukraine may have lost this war by now. They always have the option to win because of Great Britain’s foresight and the ability to act on it, without waiting for someone else to do it.
There is sufficient momentum within the allies to send more vehicles to Ukraine. It will change the way Ukraine fights.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 180 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one. Feel free to share it with anyone.
