Why the United States Needs to Escalate to De-Escalate
Because of the underlying characteristics of the two sides involved in the conflict
On multiple occasions in the last six months, I made the assessment that the battle between Russia and Ukraine is set to escalate. I had never used the term before, but it suddenly started making its way into my reports.
Yesterday, after the U.S. Congress cleared the Ukraine aid bill and sent it to the Senate for approval, President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, thanked the United States for saving thousands of lives, stating, “The vital U.S. aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding.”
Why did Zelensky see the war expand without American aid?
Why did I say the following?
The reason is the characteristics of both sides, Russian and Ukraine, who are locked in a bitter conflict. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine, while Ukraine wants not to be destroyed.
Feng Yujun, a Chinese scholar and a Professor at Peking University, outlined four factors that will lead to the defeat of Russia in its war against Ukraine. The first factor is: “the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.”
He added, “though the war has been hugely costly for Ukraine, the strength and unity of its resistance has shattered the myth that Russia is militarily invincible. Ukraine may yet rise from the ashes”.
Ukraine has indeed paid an enormous price in the last two years. That price they have already paid has stoked enormous anger against Putin’s regime. The rhetoric from the Kremlin and its outgrowth, the Russian propagandists, every single day remind Ukrainians that there is no way they would be able to live in peace with a victorious Russia.
The atrocities committed by the Russian army, confirmed by the United Nations, serve as reminders of why Ukrainians believe the cost paid for their resistance is far better than the cost they would pay for giving up.
According to a report submitted to the UN General Assembly, “the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine documented further evidence that Russian authorities have committed indiscriminate attacks and the war crimes of torture, rape and other sexual violence, and deportation of children to the Russian Federation”.
These are some very sick people. Some of the details in that report are things that I am not able to repeat here. That is where my head is after reading them. Imagine the pain a community will feel when one of their own is subjected to such brutality.
After two years of war, the people of Ukraine have no interest whatsoever in giving up. Just take the Vietnamese people, for example. The First Indochina War, where the Vietnamese fought against French colonial rule, lasted for more than ten years, from the 1940s to 1954. The Second Indochina War, where the Vietnamese fought against the United States, started in the mid-1950s and lasted until 1975.
In Afghanistan, the mujahideen, supported by various countries including the United States, Pakistan, and others, fought against Soviet forces from 1979 to 1989. The Soviet-Afghan War lasted for about 10 years.
For 28 years, the Vietnamese fought for freedom. Vietnam had a population of around 30 to 40 million people during that period. Afghanistan, on the other hand, was relatively small with around 15 million people, but its varied terrain compensated for its smaller size.
It has been more than a decade since Putin pursued his strategy of destruction to compel Syrians to submit to his friend Al-Bashar’s dictatorship. Despite this, Syria remains largely out of control for the Bashar regime. The situation in Syria still remains chaotic and tumultuous.
The point is, it is not easy to subdue the will of the people, especially when the nation in question is home to millions of people. The larger the population, the greater the desire, will, and determination to resist.
Ukraine is a nation of more than 40 million people. That poses a significant challenge. Putin’s strategy to inflict hopelessness may work when Russian forces face a smaller enemy, such as the Chechens, who were just 1 million humans. Putin used destruction to take control of Chechnya. However, this strategy did not work when he tried to export it to Syria, a country with more than 20 million people.
Ukraine is twice the size of Syria.
It shares similarities with Vietnam.
The will to resist will only increase as Putin escalates destruction. Whether allies support or withdraw their support, the Ukrainian resolve will remain steadfast, just as it did for the Vietnamese until they achieved victory.
Ukraine’s domestic defense manufacturing base has played a significant role in shaping Ukrainian decision-making. By the end of last year, discussions were underway about building one million drones. Now, they are discussing doubling that number to two million drones per year. Determining their production capacity precisely is challenging, but it’s evident that their drones are becoming more sophisticated and extending their reach.
- Ukraine’s drones are penetrating deeper into Russian territory with each passing day.
- Their GDP is projected to reach $160 billion this year.
- Given this economic strength, investing a couple of billion dollars to expand their drone production capacity is well within their means.
This is where the battlefield calculus takes a sharp turn. Putin, whose only strategy is to devastate the opposition, will escalate when Ukraine has fewer arms to resist. The weaker the resistance, the harder he will strike. In response, Ukraine will deploy their drones to target anything and everything they can find in Western Russia.
Both sides will inflict devastation upon each other. Putin cannot afford to give up because he knows he will be ousted. Ukraine will not surrender because they possess their own weapons and refuse to succumb to becoming 21st-century slaves. This is why I believe the President of Ukraine said the war will expand without American support. This is why I wrote that the war will escalate.
Who do you want to support?
No one requested Putin to invade; he did it on his own. Operating within a propaganda state, he can direct his propagandists to portray his withdrawal as the greatest victory Russia has ever achieved. They may depict the deaths suffered by the Russian army as sacrifices for a brighter future for future generations.
They started it.
Let them figure it out.
Not our job.
The flow of weapons from the United States will aid Ukraine in defending their land more effectively. On March 29th, when I advocated for the United States to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot batteries, I wrote:
“If President Biden desires Ukraine to cease attacking inside Russia, then the responsibility lies with him to ensure Ukraine feels secure first. Only then can he achieve his objectives. Pursuing it in reverse will not benefit his administration or Ukraine. Collaboration is more effective, but understanding the other side is also crucial”.
That stance, to cease attacking economic structures inside Russia and instead target Russian military assets on multiple fronts, is feasible. Additional weapons supplied by the United States will instill confidence in Ukraine that they can emerge victorious, ensuring their security.
It enables them to maintain their focus on dismantling Russia’s military capabilities. Targeting Russian military installations is a preferable option to damaging vulnerable economic structures scattered throughout western Russia.
For a considerable period, military experts have asserted that Russia employs a strategy of ‘escalate to de-escalate’. Presently, the United States finds itself in a similar position. The Biden administration must intensify the provision of weapons to Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further and to de-escalate the situation.
Putin now understands that his objective to wean Ukraine away from allied support has spectacularly failed. Europe is rapidly arming itself, and the United States, aided by multiple aid bills passed by Congress, is following suit. Tens of billions of dollars are being funneled into American weapons production facilities.
Vladimir Putin’s best option now would be to convene with his minions and devise an exit strategy from Ukraine.
As noted by the Chinese professor in his article, Putin finds himself in significant trouble.
“The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Mr Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events”.
The aid bills cleared by the U.S. Congress have brought about significant changes. There is now no viable path to victory for Putin.
Not any more.
This story is in the public domain, free for everyone to read.
