Why Trump won’t be able to get his lead back

The answer is in Wisconsin

It was unusual — extremely unusual — to see Wisconsin leaning towards Kamala Harris while Pennsylvania was still flashing red in the first week of August. I decided to wait, as sometimes polling takes time to stabilize. At the moment, Wisconsin and Michigan, two highly contested states in the Midwest, along with Pennsylvania, are all trending blue.

• Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump by 4 to 7 points.
• Michigan: Harris leads Trump by 1 to 5 points.
• Pennylvania: Harris leads Trump by 2 to 4 points.

This is still odd — Wisconsin taking a sharp swing towards Harris while Michigan and Pennsylvania remain slightly behind. Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 23k votes, then lost it to Biden in 2020 by 20k votes. In 2022, Republican Ron Johnson won the Senate seat in Wisconsin by 26k. votes, but Democrat Tony Evers won the governor’s seat by a massive 90k votes.

All over the place, eh? That’s how it is — a purple state in the Midwest, if you want to call it that.

But right off the bat, on August 1st, when the first set of polling between Harris and Trump started hitting the media, Harris took the lead. I thought it was a mistake — perhaps a polling error. But the numbers have widened…