Why Ukraine Remains Unafraid of Putin’s Backlash

The West Must Relinquish Control and Power Those on the Front Lines

On May 25, 2024, Putin’s army blew up a supermarket in Kharkiv city in broad daylight. 16:00. More than 120 people were inside the Epicentr construction hypermarket. Many were injured, and some were killed. According to the Kremlin, it was a military warehouse and command post. An hour later, the Kremlin dropped another bomb on a sports ground near the central park. I guess it was Kharkiv’s military headquarters without a roof.

On May 31, Ukraine fired more than 29 drones and five missiles towards multiple targets in Krasnodar, southern Russia. A power substation, oil depots, and facilities at Port Kavkaz were damaged. At the time, it was one of the largest and most coordinated strikes by Ukraine, utilizing both drones and missiles.

On July 8th, Russia blew up Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv in broad daylight. 10:00 hrs. Forty-seven people were killed, and 170 were injured. One day later, Ukraine destroyed an Su-57 fighter jet parked at Akhtubinsk airfield in southern Russia, 589 kilometers from Ukraine. A couple of days later, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on multiple targets inside Russia. At least 70 drones were involved.

Russian air-defenses at the highly critical Morozovsk airfield were brutally exposed as they lost some of their Su-34 fighter jets.

Coincidence?

Nope.

Deterrence.

When Ukraine knocked out the Voronezh M radar station in May, located 1,800 kilometers from their borders, they sent a huge message to Russia: we have drones that can reach far inside your territory.

There is no way Ukraine developed a handful of drones capable of traveling that far and then decided to stop production. They are building them; they’re just not using them frequently.

On day they will strike deep inside Russia and then keep quiet. But every time the Russians cross a line, such as the attack on the Kharkiv City supermarket or Kyiv’s children’s hospital, Ukraine responds with a record-breaking drone propelled counterattack. Whether it’s the distance of the Russian target or the size and scale of the Ukrainian drone attacks, Ukraine makes its point.

Between March 12th and April 10th, repeated strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries knocked out nearly 17% to 20% of Russia’s refining capacity. The Kremlin was forced to import from Belarus and Kazakhstan.

The Centre for Eastern Studies recently delivered a chilling warning to the Kremlin:

The Ukrainian attacks and the resulting drop in fuel production have created a number of challenges for the Kremlin, including the need to deal with logistical tensions, strengthen air defence and increase imports of petroleum products.

Given the political importance of fuel availability, reduced processing has forced the Russian government to use tools of intervention in order to ensure that the market is adequately saturated. For example, it has forced the fuel sector to redirect supplies onto the domestic market at the expense of the foreign markets.

Should the Ukrainian strikes continue and cause more temporary shutdowns at refineries, the government will probably have to step up its intervention, and that will generate costs for the state and may lead to market imbalances.

Ukraine has made it clear to Russia: we have the weapons to destroy your economic assets, and we can reach as deep as 1,800 kilometers. This pain you are going through is all the proof that you need.

Russia knows very well that they cannot afford to protect all their military and economic assets. If they had enough air defense to protect everything, how did they leave their airfields so exposed to drone attacks? Again and again, Ukrainian drones find their way to Russian military assets closer to the border.

Ukraine manufactures long-range drones, and many of them head straight into storage. The Russians do the same with their missiles, building an estimated 100 to 130 every month, with a good number going straight to storage. Every now and then, they find a way to inflict pain on civilians. However, these days, after every attack, they end up wondering where Ukraine will target next. They know a response will come, and they know they have to sit back and absorb the pain.

Despite Ukraine’s missile interception rates dropping to such low levels in April-May, we did not see large-scale destruction by Moscow. The return pain must have been so significant that Moscow was considering striking an off-limits deal with Ukraine regarding energy targets.

ISW: Russia and Ukraine were reportedly planning to meet in Qatar in August 2024 to discuss a possible moratorium on Ukrainian and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, but Russia temporarily postponed the summit after the start of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.

The Washington Post reported on August 17 that unspecified officials and diplomats familiar with the matter stated that Ukraine and Russia were planning to send delegations to Doha in August 2024 to attend Qatari-mediated discussions about the proposed moratorium.

Though Ukraine predominantly focuses on military assets these days, Russians are fully aware of their own vulnerability. The loss of nearly 20% of their refining capacity in a matter of weeks brutally exposed their reality. That was back in April when the Kremlin was forced to look outside to keep domestic oil prices stable. Since then, the inflation rate has risen, as has the interest rate. The odds are extremely high that the Russian Central Bank will raise the interest rate from the current 18% to 20%.

What will be the impact if Russia loses 25% of its refining capacity?

• The topline cash flow from oil sales has not increased, but due to the intense struggle for recruitment, the Kremlin now pays much higher salaries to recruits than it did before April.
• The number of casualties suffered by the Russian army has risen sharply since April. Military recruitment remains under intense pressure.
• Russia needs an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 troops, at least in my opinion, to evict Ukraine from Kursk Oblast.

But even that is no guarantee of victory there.

Putin would love to unleash a barrage of missiles against Ukraine, but he knows very well where Ukraine will strike in return. He simply cannot afford to take any more hits on his economic assets.

As Winston Churchill once said…

The maintenance of peace depends upon the accumulation of deterrents against the aggressor.

Ukraine has built a huge deterrent against the Kremlin using its long-range drones. The Biden administration loves talking about red lines, but it is Ukraine that has finally managed to develop its own red line. The message to Putin has been very clear: if you step out of bounds, we will follow suit, and there is nothing you can do about it.

This is why Ukraine does not fear the Kremlin’s backlash anymore.

I have written this so many times before: the easiest way to win this war is by squeezing the oil money flowing into Russia. Not for a second do I believe this is beyond the Biden administration’s ability. They can find those tankers quietly moving Russian oil around. I am not even asking them to do a blockade, but enforcing the price cap is 100% possible.

But the Biden administration has no interest in going that route. They want to keep Putin in the game. Ukraine is slowly breaking out of the lockup. It will be down to the Germans to make sure that the Biden administration does not start to pull things backward.

You may have read recent reports that Germany is going to halt its aid to Ukraine.

Not true.

I will address this in my next column.

Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 250 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.