Ukraine Will Not Go after the Nuclear Power Plant in Kursk
There are a ton of reasons why it is better to stay away from the plant
Online and offline, the talk about Ukraine capturing the nuclear power plant in Kursk has captured the public’s imagination. Military bloggers who have taken wartime reporting to the next level have lavishly engaged in discussing this idea, allowing the chatter to gain momentum in the mainstream.
One of the key reasons suggested by some is that Ukraine capturing this plant would allow them to use it as a bargaining chip to retake Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant, which is under Russian control in the occupied territory.
The argument to capture the Kursk Power Plant has its merits. I am not going to deny that it has crossed my mind several times. The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) is one of the four biggest electricity producers in Russia and a key supplier of electricity in a region that produces “48% of the country’s iron ore, 13.5% of its steel, 19% of its ferrous metals, 9.6% of its meat, and 19.5% of its sugar”.
Taking control of it wouldn’t just be a bargaining chip; it would place the economy of the region under Ukraine’s control.
But if only all wishes could come true, Ukraine would have won this war by now, justice would have prevailed, and the invaders would be back in their barracks. Ukraine’s strategic calculus for its Kursk incursion has to be completely changed to accommodate the capture of the plant.
Ukraine has to significantly expand its footprint in Kursk Oblast to capture the plant.
The Kursk power plant is approximately 100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and is nestled between Kursk city and Lgov. Reaching that far into Russia also means taking control of both these population centers and everything nearby. It is not going to happen by sending a team of a few hundred well-armed Ukrainian soldiers to the plant to take it over, let them be surrounded, and let Russia use it as a massive propaganda operation to portray the Ukrainians as extremists who are playing with nuclear energy to create chaos.
A raid and capture mission would be a suicide mission that would earn Ukraine all the bad press in the world. So, that leaves only one option: to take control of Kursk city. If Ukraine wants to hold the power plant, it has to take control of this city, which is well-connected to the Russian mainland. There are multiple roads and railway lines running to this city.
Just as the Russians are blocking Ukraine from advancing towards the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine with continuous and established defensive lines, Ukraine would have to do the same. However, it would be better to do this beyond Kursk city.
Otherwise, the Russians will pour their resources into the area using the city as a safe zone and continue launching raid after raid towards the nuclear power plant. They will most likely not go directly at the power plant but target the nearby areas where Ukrainian troops are present. They will try to push the Ukrainian forces back and cut off their connectivity to the KNPP.
Kursk city will become the central hub of their attack.
Capturing the plant is not a big deal; it can be done overnight. But holding the plant until negotiations can begin is a completely different endeavor.
Ukraine has deployed close to ten brigades in the Kursk sector. These are some of the most maneuverable and highly lethal brigades in their possession. If they try to advance to a depth of nearly 100 kilometers, the force density required would be much higher than ten brigades. They do not have the resources to stretch their frontline that far into Russia.
The Politcal Downside of Capturing the Power Plant
Europe has already rallied in support of Ukraine, throwing their weight behind Ukraine’s decision to take the fight into Russian territory. So far, the United States has not said anything to the contrary. They have not publicly warned Ukraine as they did when Ukraine repeatedly attacked Russian refineries in March 2024. Since then, the pace of attacks on refineries has markedly decreased. There is no indication that the pace of drone production has decreased, but Ukraine is not attacking the refineries on the same scale. Ukraine is barely managing Washington.,D.C. That is the reality.
An attack on the nuclear power plant and its capture would create significant fissures within the allies. If I were to guess, most European nations would turn against Ukraine due to the risks involved. It only takes one mistake to trigger catastrophic consequences.
All the support Ukraine has gained in the last week, and the opportunity to completely erase the last remaining red line — to attack Russian troops and military assets in Russia — would all be wiped out in one go.
How is capturing the plant going to stop the war or help accelerate progress for Ukraine?
It is not going to help Ukraine degrade Russian combat power. It is a talking point that will shift the narrative against Ukraine. It will inadvertently strengthen Putin’s propaganda position within Russia. It will allow him to argue that Ukrainians are dangerous, and he was right all along to wage his war against them. He could claim that their society needs to be crushed and the Kyiv administration must be sacked for this reason.
If Ukraine’s focus is to win the war and keep thier freedom, capturing the power plant does not help.
So far, I have not seen anything to suggest that Ukraine has its eyes set on the nuclear power plant. I have seen everything to the contrary, which is a good, pragmatic decision.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 228 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
