Why Zelensky Called Putin a ‘Dumbass’

Putin called for a “high-tech duel”. Zelensky had something else in mind.

For an extremely brief moment, I experienced reader’s shock upon learning that Ukrainian President Zelensky called Putin a ‘dumbass.’ He was responding to Putin’s comment yesterday that Russia and Ukraine should have a ‘high-tech duel.’

“Let’s call it a high-tech duel of the 21st century. Let them determine some site to hit, let’s say in Kyiv, concentrate all their air defenses there, and we will strike there with the Oreshnik and see what happens. It’s interesting,” Putin said.

As stupid and evil as it might be, this comment by Putin has a specific informational objective. He wants Russians to believe they are still the superior power in the war. He wants the Western world to talk about Russian missiles. He does not want Starmer and Scholz to attend a press conference and discuss the ruble, inflation in Russia, or the North Korean troops flooding hospitals in Kursk. He wants them to talk about a ‘high-tech duel.’

Putin does this regularly. The nuclear saber he rattles at regular intervals serves the same purpose. The moment he sees a camera, he feels compelled to find a way to control the headlines. All right-wing leaders around the world follow the same pattern. Zelensky is now confronting the Russian information control strategy by making outrageous comments. I hope Budanov has already provided him with a list of things he can use to divert the media’s attention away from Putin.

Yesterday, I wrote that it would be better for Putin to ease off his missile barrages against Ukraine, as his economy is not in a position to withstand Ukraine’s attacks on his refineries.

But nope.

He responded to Ukraine’s attack on the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast by attacking Kyiv. It was a highly unusual attack. The typical pattern involves launching close to 100 missiles of various types along with over 100 drones, with targets spread across Ukraine. They also use only a small number of Iskander missiles — sometimes just one or maybe two. For some reason, Western air defenses manage to intercept the hypersonic Kinzhal missiles but often miss the Iskanders. As a result, the Russians deploy them carefully and sparingly.

Yesterday, the Russians attacked Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, with five Iskander missiles, two Kinzhal missiles, and a few North Korean missiles. The timing was also unusual. Normally, they launch their barrages around 3 AM, but yesterday’s attack was mounted at 6:40 AM. It was an odd attack. However, the fact that they chose to launch five Iskander missiles indicates that the Kremlin was desperate to inflict damage and cause casualties in response to Ukraine’s attack on the refinery.

This is not good for Putin. He seems to keep compounding his mistakes. This cycle is unlikely to stop, as Ukraine has no reason to refrain from responding. Putin refuses to accept that his power is waning, Ukraine’s capabilities are growing on the missile and drone front, and, between the two, Ukraine’s economy is better positioned to endure through 2025.

The Economist, one of the first Western publications to recognize that the Russian economy is in serious trouble, wrote today that Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia.

I realized this outcome was almost certain when Europe cleared the decks to send €50 billion in aid to Ukraine earlier this year. My reasoning wasn’t complicated. Ukrainian grain was flowing through the Black Sea, their currency was relatively stable, Ukraine was running a deficit budget, and the cash infusion was certain to provide a strong floor under Ukraine’s economy. Europe was also smart — they didn’t hand over the entire €50 billion at once but instead chose to send it in tranches. From a market perspective, there’s no reason to bet against Ukraine’s currency.

The only headache will be inflation. When manpower shrinks, it impacts the workforce and overall production capacity, pushing wages higher and causing inflation to rise. That, and that alone, remains Ukraine’s main economic challenge. It won’t have the contagion effects that Russia is currently experiencing, but it’s still a significant issue.

Ukraine may choose to increase interest rates further to slow down inflation, but I don’t think that’s a great idea for a wartime economy. Instead, they should take a leaf out of Germany’s 2022 playbook for addressing inflation.

When Putin attempted to trigger a catastrophic recession by halting the flow of gas, Germany, which was still buying more than 50% of its gas from Russia, faced a dire situation. Rather than buckling under pressure, Germany tackled both the supply and demand sides of the gas equation. They pushed corporations and citizens to reduce demand while aggressively seeking alternatives and substitutes on the supply side.

It took time, but month by month, the consumption of Russian gas decreased, and alternatives gained a larger share. One year of hard work, but it paid off. No one talks enough about how Germany went from over 50% dependency to near zero in less than a year. But this is a lesson that needs to be taught in schools all over the world.

Instead of increasing interest rates, Ukraine should address both the supply and demand sides of food products. Reducing consumption might be challenging, but with strong top-down determination, there’s always a path forward. On the supply side, however, there’s much more room to act.

On November 20th, twelve European countries came together in Denmark to launch the Northern Group to enhance their defense cooperation to assist Ukraine as well as secure their own future. The group includes the Baltic States, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Britain, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.

Ukraine should ask this group to supply food products — perhaps $5 million worth from each country. That would provide Ukraine with $60 million in food and essential goods per month, while requiring only a modest contribution from each member. Ukraine could create a list of food or other critical products experiencing inflation and bring them in. Start small and scale up gradually over the year. Go quarter by quarter, steadily increasing net supply.

This will help apply downward pressure on inflation.

All Ukraine needs is to keep its economy in good shape through 2025. Every available option should be explored. Rather than relying on the traditional interest rate response to inflation, Ukraine should leverage Western support to keep inflation under control. This isn’t a heavy lift — it can be done.

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 340 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.