Will Europe Stand Up?

They have two months. That is all they get.

Wow, it does feel like a dystopian movie. Fresh off his involvement in U.S. politics, Elon Musk has now directed his attention to Canada, criticizing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and predicting that he will be ousted in the next election. Musk didn’t stop there, he then called German Chancellor Olaf Scholz a “fool.”

A man with business interests bullying national leaders around the world without an iota of stress. This is the frontpage news in Europe.

How many more publications will spread this message across Europe and within Germany, further humiliating the embattled Chancellor? This is outright bullying. Scholz may have made mistakes — calling him out on that is fair. But to label a national leader a fool? There are no good intentions behind such remarks.

There is only one.

The anti-democratic forces are closing in on democracies worldwide, with a particular focus on dismantling the European Union. Fragmenting the EU has long been a sought-after goal, and the situation in Ukraine is just one of many steps toward achieving that aim.

In the East, Putin, fueled by imperial ambitions and subtly backed by China, maneuvers on the geopolitical stage. In the U.S., Donald Trump and his nationalist allies will soon take control of the White House. Meanwhile, Elon Musk stands ready to use Twitter to shape global politics according to his vision.

All three — Trump, Putin, and Musk — are reported to maintain regular contact.

Fiona Hill, a prominent scholar on Russian affairs, told Politico about the impact of private conversations between Putin and Trump. She noted the significant implications these discussions could have on global stability.

Putin wants to see the United States weak. In a private conversation, he will be pushing out messages that reinforce his preferences — advising, perhaps cajoling, Trump to do or say certain things. Unfortunately, this messaging might be working — a lot of the statements that President Trump and people around him, like vice presidential candidate JD Vance, have made about the war in Ukraine sound exactly like the statements that Putin has made about his preferences for how the war in Ukraine ends.

People are always asking, ‘Why does Trump admire Putin?’ One could also ask, ‘Why does Trump admire Musk?’ Because Elon Musk is now probably the single largest contributor and most vocal proponent for Trump’s reelection campaign. We’ve seen him at rallies with Trump. We’ve seen him offering prizes to potential voters for Trump. He’s constantly talking about the literally millions of dollars that he is spending in support of Trump. Musk and Trump both see themselves as members of an extraordinarily powerful class of rich men who want influence on a global scale.

Yes, she’s absolutely right. We can see the influence from Elon Musk’s recent attacks on the Canadian Prime Minister and German Chancellor. How much sway the reasonable members in the House GOP will hold over a Trump administration remains uncertain.

But Europe cannot allow its fate to be determined by a few well-intentioned Republicans whose influence will likely be limited by Trump’s recent mandate.

Just yesterday, French President Macron sounded the alarm on the potential impacts of this shift in global dynamics.

“For me, it’s simple. The world is made up of herbivores and carnivores. If we decide to remain herbivores, then the carnivores will win and we will be a market for them.

I think, at the very least, we should choose to become omnivores. I don’t want to be aggressive, just that we know how to defend ourselves on all these subjects.

We [in Europe] think that we should delegate our geopolitics to the United States of America, that we should delegate our growth debt to our Chinese clients, that we should delegate our technological innovation to the American hyper-scalers. That’s not the best idea.”

With Germany’s coalition government under intense internal strain, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position has been significantly weakened. This leaves two key figures in European leadership: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, newly elected and likely in office until 2029, and French President Emmanuel Macron, whose term ends in 2027. However, France faces its own internal political challenges. A few months ago, a snap parliamentary election resulted in a fractured mandate, with the left emerging as the leading bloc, adding further complexity to Macron’s ability to govern effectively.

• The left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), an alliance led by parties including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, emerged as the largest bloc with +178 seats.
• President Macron’s centrist coalition Ensemble won 150 seats, marking a significant reduction from its previous position.
• Rassemblement National, the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, saw its numbers increase to 125 seats, making it the third-largest group in the Assembly.
• Conservative Les Républicains, holding 39 seats, remains a minor player.

France has shifted slightly to the center-left. Although Macron’s position is somewhat weaker than before, France hasn’t swung as hard to the right as the United States has, leaving Macron a fair amount of room to maintain control over domestic politics. From this position, he could help steer Europe in the right direction.

The responsibility to keep Europe united and ensure Ukraine’s defense will largely fall on Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The first challenge from a Trump administration would likely come on the sanctions front. If Trump begins to ease sanctions on Russian companies, Putin would have more economic flexibility to sustain his war efforts, potentially extending the conflict for years.

Achieving a decisive victory soon remains the best strategy. Current sanctions continue to strain Russia’s economy, with limited troop reserves weakening Putin’s position. A swift offensive to break Russian defenses could pressure Moscow. However, if Europe and its allies drag the conflict out in hopes of negotiating with Putin, they might just be playing into the hands of Musk, Trump, and Putin, who may prefer a frozen frontline that keeps Ukraine landlocked and outside NATO.

In a scenario where the U.S. withdraws from NATO, Europe faces a serious risk. Putin would have time to rebuild his military capabilities and establish a robust defense industry, producing millions of artillery shells and over a hundred missiles each month. This could position Russia as a more formidable threat on Europe’s eastern front in a few years.

The stage will be set for a full blown disaster. Putin’s strategy could succeed with precision. For Europe, the next 60 days are crucial. The decisions made now will determine the EU’s future stability and unity. The warning signs are clear: after Brexit, anti-EU forces have now reached the White House. Europe must stand united and proactive in response.

Now or never.

The times are growing darker, but it is in such moments that we, the people, must stand united. Together, we can draw strength from one another and face the challenges ahead.

Thanks for reading. The war is getting closer to the end. Now, more than ever, it’s crucial to make critical information about Ukraine accessible. That’s why I’ve made 330 stories available to the public in 2024, including this one.