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Will Texas Flip in 2022
Beto O’ Rourke and Texas Gov. Abbott in a dead heat
A poll released yesterday by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and Rice University found Texas Governor Greg Abbott leading potential democratic nominee Beto O’ Rourke by a single point.
One point is all that separates the democratic candidate from the Republican candidate in Texas. Under normal circumstances, I would have dismissed the poll as fools gold for democrats. Because, unfortunately, Texas always finds a way to crawl back into the Republican fold.
But there is something unique about this poll, and it details the lane available for Beto O’ Rourke to stage an upset win in 2022.
Both Beto (-5 points) and Abbott (-8) are running behind Biden and Trump’s partisan support. We can expect both numbers to swing back to their highest level as we get closer to election day.
Once we move past the democratic and republican bases, things get interesting. For example, Beto runs ahead of Biden with women (5 points) in Texas, while Abbott runs behind Donald Trump with Hispanics (-4 points).
These are the two constituencies Beto badly needs to stage the upset — women and Hispanics. Though a large number of women and Hispanics are undecided, Gov. Abbott will struggle to improve his numbers.
