Kremlin commits the elite 155th, 200th and 51st brigades to the worst end of the Kursk salient
The Russian Counter-Offensive is Running Out of Steam and Starting to Falter
Nearly a week has passed since the Russians launched a ‘surprise’ counter-attack on Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast, Russia. However, it wasn’t exactly a surprise from the Ukrainian perspective, as this is precisely what they wanted the Russians to do: to draw their well-equipped brigades away from fighting on Ukrainian soil and into Russian territory.
The Russians finally took the bait last week. Well, they had been taking small bites for a while, but last week, they attempted a larger bite. After sending a wave of conscripts, troops from Kaliningrad, and Chechen TikTok warriors — famous for posing with two machine guns in their hands — Russia pulled a significant number of its elite brigades from Ukraine and pushed them into Kursk.
The battlefield dynamics in Ukraine haven’t changed much over the past two years. If you want to capture a large amount of territory, the only way to do it is through operational surprise. The first 100 hours are critical; if you miss that window, you’ll have to fight for every meter, going against the tide, which will cost you far more for each meter gained.
The Russian army did not achieve any tactical breakthroughs in the first 100 hours of launching its counterattack in Kursk. In fact, as I mentioned in my earlier assessment, their actions have only complicated their position in Kursk.
Below is the map I drew around the time things began moving again in Kursk.
The Russian army followed this plan exactly. They ordered their troops to advance south of the Seym River along two routes: one through the direction indicated by the red arrow in the image above, and another group was ordered to advance through the Glushkovo district. You can see the second arrow in the image below.
Someone higher up in the Kremlin hierarchy looked at the map and decided: let’s order one group of troops to advance along one side of the river (1), and another group to cross the river and land on the opposite side (2). Not a bad idea — one group crosses the river, the other takes the land route, they meet, and together they control both banks of the river in that section.
Of course, both missions (1 and 2) are risky, as Ukraine has a strong presence in both areas. The idea itself wasn’t bad at all — in fact, I had written earlier that this was the only option they had. The Russians executed exactly that. So why am I calling it stupid?
It’s because of this.
The elite 51st Airborne Regiment and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade crossed the river near the Glushkovo district and walked straight into Ukrainian positions. When they crossed the river, Ukraine had no troops stationed to their right. Now, they face the 21st Mechanized Brigade, the 225th Assault Battalion, the 115th Battalion, and the 95th Air Assault Brigade.
This group alone is capable of countering the two Russian brigades. But Ukraine has plenty more on the left. The Russians have stationed the 200th Arctic Brigade on the other side of the river as backup. Oh, well. Even that won’t be enough — not even close.
Ukraine can close the cauldron any time they want, as the force disparity between the two sides is significant. But they haven’t moved in for the kill yet.
Unfortunately, I cannot go into further detail at this point, as Ukraine’s operational strategy on the western front is still developing. A lot depends on what the Russians decide to do next. I wanted to write this now because, as usual, Western media may soon begin reporting that Ukraine is losing territory it captured in Kursk. I want you to get a clear picture before the sensationalist drivel hits social media.
Sometimes in war, patience is required. You need to maneuver and occasionally cede space. Ukraine is running circles around Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Russia can either withdraw its troops from the other side of the river, or they will need to send reinforcements.
My guess is they will choose the latter. Ukrainian response will take time to develop. We need to give them that.
Thanks for reading. Making critical information on Ukraine accessible is one way to fight misinformation. That’s why I’ve made 280 stories free to the public in 2024, including this one.
