Kremlin commits the elite 155th, 200th and 51st brigades to the worst end of the Kursk salient

The Russian Counter-Offensive is Running Out of Steam and Starting to Falter

Nearly a week has passed since the Russians launched a ‘surprise’ counter-attack on Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast, Russia. However, it wasn’t exactly a surprise from the Ukrainian perspective, as this is precisely what they wanted the Russians to do: to draw their well-equipped brigades away from fighting on Ukrainian soil and into Russian territory.

The Russians finally took the bait last week. Well, they had been taking small bites for a while, but last week, they attempted a larger bite. After sending a wave of conscripts, troops from Kaliningrad, and Chechen TikTok warriors — famous for posing with two machine guns in their hands — Russia pulled a significant number of its elite brigades from Ukraine and pushed them into Kursk.

The battlefield dynamics in Ukraine haven’t changed much over the past two years. If you want to capture a large amount of territory, the only way to do it is through operational surprise. The first 100 hours are critical; if you miss that window, you’ll have to fight for every meter, going against the tide, which will cost you far more for each meter gained.