Ukrainian President’s Office: Russia’s Summer Target is Kharkiv City
This target has been visible for more than a year now….
President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff, Andriy Yermak, told Politico that Republicans must step up as Russia is likely to make a big push on Kharkiv in May or June.
The pummeling Ukraine has come under in the past three weeks is part of a campaign to soften it up for a major Russian offensive, Yermak said.
He saw the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest, as the most likely target for the main thrust of an assault. Kharkiv has come in for an especially ferocious battering and and large-scale Russian attacks have wrecked its power plants.
“We know that Putin is preparing a new wave of mobilization and we reckon new counter-offensive operations by the Russians could start at the end of the May or the beginning of June. Of course, we have to be ready for this,” Yermak said. “We still critically need additional air-defense systems because without them it is impossible to for us to defend our cities,” he added.
This Russian target has been visible for a very long time. They are indeed predictable, very much so. I have written a handful of stories discussing why I believe the Russians are targeting Kupiansk, which is one of the crucial steps leading them to Kharkiv.
If you are interested, you can read the implications of Ukraine losing Kupiansk and how it will affect the defense of Kharkhiv city, here.
Let us take a slightly different approach than usual to decipher Putin’s motivations for targeting Kharkiv city. We will break down the Russian logic and then finally examine how Ukraine can thwart their plans.
Why Kharkhiv City and why not some where else?
Let’s say I give you a magnet with magical powers. If you were on Putin’s side and I told you that wherever you place this magnet on the map, more than half of Ukraine’s combat capacity would be drawn towards it, where would you place it?
I will keep it all the way closer to the top of the map.
As far east as possible.
The Russians aim to maintain control over the territory they have occupied in the south. They show less concern for their holdings in the northeast. This attitude is evident in how they have constructed their defensive lines in the south and the east.
In the South, they have constructed fallback defensive lines, whereas in the northeast, they have not. Russians are prepared to confront Ukrainians in the South. This strategy assists Russia in preventing Ukrainian troops from advancing to the Sea of Azov and potentially reaching Crimea.
Russians require Crimea if they entertain any hopes of attacking NATO in the future. Losing Crimea would result in losing control over the Black Sea, thereby diminishing their ability to project naval power deep into Europe.
If protecting the Ukrainian territory occupied in Southern Ukraine becomes the top priority, then the Russian strategy is better served by drawing Ukrainian troops to the northeast, as far away from the South as possible.
An attack on Kharkiv city will help Putin maintain control over his conquests in Southern Ukraine as well as Crimea.
Why not some other city in the North East?
Well, why not target the largest prize in the northeast? With more than a million Ukrainians living in Kharkiv city, an attack on the city would provoke a strong reaction from Ukraine.
Ukraine will have no choice but to respond with force to any attack launched by the Russians towards Kharkiv city.
The Russians can also advance directly towards the city from the Russian border, as it’s just 30 kilometers away. They could amass troops and march them. However, this scenario is unlikely due to the heavy surveillance on that border. If Russia were to mass troops there, Ukraine might opt to launch a counterattack, or more likely, await their arrival at prepared defensive lines.
The propganda bonanza
Putin is running out of time. He may continue recruiting until the last Russian, but he cannot indefinitely refurbish old tanks and rely on Soviet-era artillery shells and ammunition. These resources are finite. Once he depletes the Soviet-era warehouses, he will be left with empty rooms and a production capacity that is no where near Europe’s.
RUSI analysts have stated that they expect Russia to begin losing its combat power for this reason in 2025. But what if Russians experience a significant loss of capacity this year? That would accelerate their estimated timeline. I believe Putin comprehends this predicament.
2024 is a escape now-or-die later moment for Putin.
His best escape route is to persuade the West to offer him a peace deal. Taking a break, rebuilding the broken bones, and returning one or two years later could be his strategy. However, to compel the West to negotiate, he needs to demonstrate something significant. A frontal assault on Kharkiv could achieve this. While victory may be impossible, if achieved, it would put Putin in a favorable position to seek a peace deal.
The attack on Avdiivka helped Putin rally the MAGA Republicans in his favor. However, an attack on Kharkiv city would yield significantly more informational value than what was extracted from Avdiivka. Imagine how Scholz will respond after Putin orders his troops towards Kharkiv. I doubt Putin will be able to get his troops closer to Kharkiv, but from his perspective, finding a way to reach there and getting the West to self-deter from fighting back is crucial.
A direct assualt on Kharkhiv will be difficult to achieve
This attack, if launched, will be a high-stakes project for Putin. It won’t be easy. Urban battles are inherently challenging, and Ukraine is likely to replicate its strategy from the first few weeks of the war in Kyiv — they will dig in and defend.
It is reassuring to have Commander-in-Chief Oleksander Syrski, the man who led the defense of Kyiv, leading the army. Therefore, I suspect that the true intent behind an attack on Kharkiv is aimed at capturing it. Even advancing closer to Kharkiv will likely unsettle the Western world, particularly the American and German administrations.
Not that Putin would dread capturing the town, fearing the colossal losses his army would suffer. He wouldn’t mind. However, it would only result in losses and not victory if Ukraine still holds Kupiansk by the end of May. From a propaganda standpoint, a move by Russia towards Kharkhiv does make sense.
What Ukraine can do to stop this?
I believe they are already taking some measures in this regard. They need to prioritize a robust defense of Kupiansk. That town must be their top defensive priority over the next eight weeks. They should do whatever it takes to prevent the Russians from capturing Kupiansk. Better yet, keep them far away from the town. If Kupiansk falls, it will be extraordinarily difficult to defend Kharkiv.
Ideally, exploring a strong counterattack near Bakhmut may be a viable option, or any other spot in Southern Ukraine, for that matter. This battlefield is characterized by a binary dynamic: either you attack or you get attacked. There’s no middle ground. This reflects the nature of the parties involved — Russia and Ukraine. Neither side is willing to let things meander. They will strive to take control, resulting in either Ukraine launching an offensive or Russia doing so.
Unfortunately, Ukraine requires significant time to regenerate its combat capacity. This won’t happen before the summer, perhaps not even immediately after the summer.
Russia is aware of this reality, which is why it makes strategic sense for them to launch one last massive attempt to break through the Ukrainian lines in the northeast.
I think they are going to try.
Ukraine must strengthen its ground defenses in the region. This is likely the only option available to them, and it’s one that they have full control over.
Russians are poised to escalate the pace of their glide bomb attacks on the eastern front. Ukraine must have its defenses in position before the end of this month. Any delay beyond that would invite trouble.
Now it all becomes clear why Ukraine targeted three Russian air bases coordinating their attacks on Ukraine’s east with drone strikes.
